Table Of Content

Pascal’s Wager In his famous Wager, Blaise Pascal (1623–62) offers the reader an argument that it is rational to strive to believe in God. Philosophical debatesaboutthisclassicargumenthavecontinueduntilourowntimes. ThisvolumeprovidesacomprehensiveexaminationofPascal’sWager, includingitstheologicalframework,itsplaceinthehistoryofphiloso- phy,anditsimportancetocontemporarydecisiontheory.Thevolume startswithavaluableprimeroninfinityanddecisiontheoryforstudents and non-specialists. A sequence of chapters then examines topics includingtheWager’sunderlyingtheology,itsinfluenceonlaterphilo- sophical figures, and contemporary analyses of the Wager including AlanHájek’schallengetoitsvalidity,themany-godsobjection,andthe ethicsofbelief.Thefinalfivechaptersexplorevariouswaysinwhichthe Wagerhasinspiredcontemporarydecisiontheory,includingquestions relatedtoinfiniteutility,impreciseprobabilities,andinfinitesimals. Paul Bartha is Professor and Head of the Department of Philosophy, University of British Columbia. He is the author of By Parallel Reasoning: The Construction and Evaluation of Analogical Arguments (2010). Lawrence Pasternack is Professor of Philosophy at Oklahoma State University. His publications include Kant’s Religion within the BoundariesofMereReason:AnInterpretationandDefense(2014). ClassicPhilosophicalArguments Overthecenturies,anumberofindividualargumentshaveformedacrucial partofphilosophicalenquiry.Thevolumesinthisseriesexaminethese arguments,lookingattheramificationsandapplicationswhichtheyhave cometohave,thechallengeswhichtheyhaveencountered,andthewaysin whichtheyhavestoodthetestoftime. Titlesintheseries ThePrisoner’sDilemma EditedbyMartinPeterson TheOriginalPosition EditedbyTimothyHinton TheBraininaVat EditedbySanfordC.Goldberg Pascal’sWager EditedbyPaulBarthaandLawrencePasternack ’ Pascal s Wager Edited by Paul Bartha UniversityofBritishColumbia,Vancouver Lawrence Pasternack OklahomaStateUniversity UniversityPrintingHouse,CambridgeCB28BS,UnitedKingdom OneLibertyPlaza,20thFloor,NewYork,NY10006,USA 477WilliamstownRoad,PortMelbourne,VIC3207,Australia 314–321,3rdFloor,Plot3,SplendorForum,JasolaDistrictCentre, NewDelhi–110025,India 79AnsonRoad,#06–04/06,Singapore079906 CambridgeUniversityPressispartoftheUniversityofCambridge. ItfurtherstheUniversity’smissionbydisseminatingknowledgeinthepursuitof education,learning,andresearchatthehighestinternationallevelsofexcellence. www.cambridge.org Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781107181434 DOI:10.1017/9781316850398 ©CambridgeUniversityPress2018 Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements, noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress. Firstpublished2018 PrintedandboundinGreatBritainbyClaysLtd,ElcografS.p.A. AcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Names:Bartha,PaulF.A.,1964–andPasternack,LawrenceR.,1967–editors. Title:Pascal’swager/editedbyPaulBartha,UniversityofBritishColumbia,Vancouver, andLawrencePasternack,OklahomaStateUniversity. Description:NewYork:CambridgeUniversityPress,2018.|Series:Classicphilosophical arguments|Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. Identifiers:LCCN2018026134|ISBN9781107181434 Subjects:LCSH:Faithandreason–Christianity.|Apologetics.|Pascal,Blaise,1623–1662.| Philosophicaltheology. Classification:LCCBT50.P382018|DDC212/.1–dc23 LCrecordavailableathttps://lccn.loc.gov/2018026134 ISBN978-1-107-18143-4Hardback ISBN978-1-316-63265-9Paperback CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracyof URLsforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredtointhispublication anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchwebsitesis,orwillremain, accurateorappropriate. Contents ListofFiguresandTables pagevii ListofContributors ix Acknowledgments x Introduction 1 PaulBarthaandLawrencePasternack PartI HistoricalContextandInfluence 25 1 Pascal’sWagerandtheOriginsofDecisionTheory: Decision-MakingbyRealDecision-Makers 27 JamesFranklin 2 TheWagerandPascal’sTheology 45 WilliamWood 3 Pascal’sWagerandtheEthicsforInquiry aboutGod 64 PaulMoser 4 PascalandHisWagerintheEighteenthandNineteenth Centuries 84 AdamBuben 5 TheWagerandWilliamJames 101 JeffreyJordan PartII Assessment 121 6 The(In)validityofPascal’sWager 123 AlanHájek 7 TheMany-GodsObjectiontoPascal’sWager:ADefeat, thenaResurrection 148 CraigDuncan vi Contents 8 TheWagerasDecisionunderIgnorance:Decision-Theoretic ResponsestotheMany-GodsObjection 168 LawrencePasternack 9 RationalityandtheWager 187 PaulSaka 10 TheRoleofPascal’sWagerinAuthenticReligiousCommitment 209 JoshuaGolding PartIII Extensions 223 11 TheArbitraryPrudentialismofPascal’sWagerandHowto OvercomeItbyUsingGameTheory 225 ElliottSober 12 Pascal’sWagerandtheDynamicsofRationalDeliberation 236 PaulBartha 13 InfinityinPascal’sWager 260 GrahamOppy 14 Pascal’sWagerandImpreciseProbability 278 SusannaRinard 15 DoInfinitesimalProbabilitiesNeutralizetheInfiniteUtilityin Pascal’sWager? 293 SylviaWenmackers Bibliography 315 Index 329 Figures and Tables Figures 11.1 WindingRoad page231 11.2 HillClimbing 232 12.1 InfiniteRelativeUtility 243 12.2 EqualRelativeUtility 243 Tables I.1 DominanceReasoning 3 I.2 EMVReasoning 4 I.3 EUReasoning 5 I.4 Pascal’sWager 7 I.5 Pascal’sWager 10 I.6 Pascal’sWagerwithProbabilities 14 1.1 Pascal’sWager 37 1.2 Pascal’sWagerwithHugePayoff 40 1.3 ContemporaryWager 42 6.1 (Super)DominanceWager 124 6.2 WagerwithProbability½ 127 6.3 DamnationHasNegativeInfiniteUtility 133 6.4 InfiniteSurrealUtility 137 6.5 Vector-ValuedUtilities 139 6.6 Long-RunAverageUtilities 140 6.7 FiniteUtility 141 6.8 NegativeInfiniteandPositiveFiniteUtilities 142 6.9 RelativeUtilities 144 6.10 Superduperdominance 146 7.1 Pascal’sWager 149 7.2 Two-GodMGO 150 7.3 Three-GodMGO 151 7.4 Three-GodMGOwithFiniteUtilities 155 8.1 Pascal’sWager 169 8.2 MGO 171 8.3 TricksterDeity 175 8.4 Universalism 177 8.5 EvilDeceiver 179 8.6 OurJudgmentFlawed 180 9.1 MetaphysicalWager 189 viii ListofFiguresandTables 9.2 MundaneWager 190 9.3 HybridWager 190 9.4 TragedyoftheCommons 201 9.5 Wagerer’sDilemma 202 9.6 StrategiesCompared 206 11.1 WagerAssumingP-Theology 226 11.2 WagerAssumingX-Theology 226 11.3 WagerAssumingGodDoesNotExist 226 11.4 WagerwithNoConstraintsonPrudentialism 228 11.5 WindingRoad 230 11.6 ConjunctiveWager 233 12.1 Pascal’sWager 237 12.2 ManyJealousGods 240 12.3 CanonicalWager,RelativeDecisionTable 244 12.4 ManyJealousGods,RelativeDecisionTable 245 12.5 ThePantheon 246 12.6 JealousandGrouchy 246 12.7 JealousandUniversalist 249 12.8 JealousandNiceCartel 251 12.9 FiniteUtilities 252 12.10 X-Theology 253 12.11 GrouchyCartel 254 12.12 JealousandGrouchyCartel 255 12.13 GrouchyandNice 255 12.14 Grouchy,Nice,andJealous 256 12.15 JealousandVirtuous 257 13.1 Pascal’sWager 261 13.2 RelativeUtilities 267 13.3 MixedStrategies 267 13.4 JealousandNice 269 13.5 GrouchyandNice 269 13.6 Jealous,Nice,Indifferent,andPerverse 271 13.7 Jealous,Nice,Perverse,andaCartel 272 13.8 JealousandVirtuous 276 14.1 Pascal’sWager 279 15.1 Pascal’sWager 294 Contributors PaulBarthaisProfessorandHeadoftheDepartmentofPhilosophy,Universityof BritishColumbia. AdamBubenisAssistantProfessorofComparativePhilosophyatLeiden UniversityintheNetherlands. CraigDuncanisAssociateProfessorandChairoftheDepartmentofPhilosophy andReligionatIthacaCollege. JamesFranklinisProfessorattheSchoolofMathematicsandStatistics,University ofNewSouthWales. JoshuaGoldingisProfessorintheDepartmentofPhilosophyatBellarmine University. AlanHájekisProfessorattheSchoolofPhilosophy,AustralianNational University. JeffreyJordanisProfessorofPhilosophyattheUniversityofDelaware. PaulMoserisProfessorofPhilosophyatLoyolaUniversityChicago. GrahamOppyisProfessorofPhilosophyandDirectoroftheGraduateProgramin PhilosophyatMonashUniversity. LawrencePasternackisProfessorofPhilosophyatOklahomaStateUniversity. SusannaRinardisAssistantProfessorofPhilosophyatHarvardUniversity. PaulSakaisProfessorattheUniversityofTexas,RioGrande. ElliottSoberisHansReichenbachProfessorandWilliamF.VilasResearch ProfessorattheUniversityofWisconsin(Madison). SylviaWenmackersisResearchProfessorattheInstituteofPhilosophyatKU Leuven. WilliamWoodisaFellowandTutorinTheology,andAssociateProfessorof PhilosophicalTheologyatOrielCollege,UniversityofOxford.