Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries PDF
Preview Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries
PARALLEL EXCHANGE RATES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries Edited by Miguel A. Kiguel Central Bank ofA rgentina and the World Bank J. Saul Lizondo International Monetary Fund and Stephen A. O'Connell Associate Professor of Economics Swarthmore College Pennsylvania First published in Great Britain 1997 by 所 MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmi11s, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS andLondon Companies and representatives throughout the wor1d A cata10gue record for this book is avai1able from the British Library. ISBN 978-1-349-25522-1 ISBN 978-1-349-25520-7 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-25520-7 First published in the Unit吋 States of America 1997 by m ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC., Scholar1y and Reference Division, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 1α)1 0 ISBN 978-0-312-16558-1 Library of Congress Cata1oging-in-Publication Data Parallel exchange rates in developing countries I edited by Miguel A. Kiguel , J. Saul Lizondo, and Stephen A. O'Connell. p. cm. Includes bibliographical refe陀nces and index. ISBN 978-0-312-16558-1 (c1oth) 1. Foreign exchange rates-Deve1oping countries-Econometric mode1s-Case studies. 2. Economic stabilization-Developing countries-Econometric models-Case studies. 3. [地ve10ping countrie• -Economic policy-Econometric models-Case studies. 1. Kiguel, Miguel AIt間巾， 1954- . 11. Lizondo. José Saúl. 111. O'Connell. Stephen A. HG388 1.P2924 1997 332.4'56'的172ι-dc20 96-34337 CIP @ Miguel A. Kiguel, J. Saul Lizondo and Stephen A. O'Connell 1997 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 1997 AII rights reserved. No repr咽uction， copy or transmission of this publicalion may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publicalion may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance wi曲 the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. or under the terms of any Iicence permiUing Iimited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W 1P 9HE. Any person who does any unauthorised act in re1ation to this 仰blication may be Iiable to criminal prosecution and civi1 c1aims for damages. The authors have asserted Iheir rights to be identified as the aulhors of Ihis work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. 甘lis book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 06 05 04 03 02 01 ∞ 99 98 97 To Claudia, Lucrecia, and Ginny Contents Notes on Contributors ix Acknowledgments xiii Overview Miguel A. Kiguel, J. Saul Lizondo, and Stephen A. O'Connell Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Lessons from Eight Case Studies 17 Nita Ghei, Miguel A. Kiguel, and Stephen A. O'Connell 2 Parallel Markets and the Effectiveness of Exchange Controls in Argentina: 1981-9 77 Steven B. Kamin 3 Dual Exchange Rates: the Mexican Experience, 1982-7 110 Graciela L. Kaminsky 4 Adoption, Management, and Abandonment of Multiple Exchange Rate Regimes with Import Control: the Case of Venezuela 145 Ricardo Hausmann 5 Macroeconomic Aspects of Multiple Exchange Rate Regimes: the Case of Ghana Yaw Ansu 188 6 The Parallel Market Premium for Foreign Exchange and Macroeconomic Policy in Sudan 221 Ibrahim A. Elbadawi 7 Exchange Controls and the Parallel Premium in Tanzania, 1967-90 247 Daniel Kaufmann and Stephen A. O'Connell vii viii Parallel Exchange Rates 8 The Parallel Market Premium and Exchange Rate Unification: a Macroeconomic Analysis for Zambia 291 Janine Aron and Ibrahim A. Elbadawi 9 Black Market Exchange Rates in Turkey 333 Sule OzIer 10 European Dual Exchange Rates 359 Nancy P. Marion Index 387 Notes on Contributors Yaw Ansu received his Ph.D. in the Department of Engineering- Economic Systems at Stanford University. He is an Economic Advisor in the Office of the Senior Vice President for Development Economics and Chief Economist of the World Bank. He has worked in both the research and operations sections of the World Bank, most recently in the Bank's Resident Mission in Kenya. Janine Aron holds an Economic and Social Research Council Fellow- ship at the Centre for Study of African Economies, Institute of Economics and Statistics, Oxford University. She received her D. Phil in Economics from Oxford University, where she held lectureships at Merton and Jesus Colleges. She has been a visiting lecturer at the Universities of the Witwatersrand and Cape Town in South Mrica and has held research consultancies with the World Bank, the Euro- pean Commission, and other organizations. Her current research focuses on foreign exchange and treasury bill auctions in sub-Saharan Africa and real exchange rate models for South Africa. Ibrahim A. Elbadawi is the Research Director of the African Economic Research Consortium in Nairobi, Kenya, where he is on leave from the World Bank. He received his Ph.D. from Northwestern University and has held visiting positions at Yale University and the University of Gezira, Sudan. His empirical research on economic growth and struc- tural adjustment in sub-Saharan Africa has appeared in numerous professional journals and books. Nita Ghei is currently the correspondent in Washington, DC for The Economic Times, of India. She has served as a consultant to the National Institute for Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi and to the Research Department of the World Bank. Her research focuses on exchange rate policy in developing countries. Ricardo Hausmann is the Chief Economist of the Inter-American Development Bank. Dr Hausmann has served as the Minister of Coordination and Planning of Venezuela, as a member of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of Venezuela, and as Chairman of the Joint Development Committee of the International Monetary ix x Parallel Exchange Rates Fund and World Bank. Dr Hausmann is Professor of Economics at IESA, Venezuela's leading Graduate School of Business, where he founded the Center of Public Policy. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Cornell University and has been a Visiting Fellow at Oxford University and at CEPREMAP in Paris. He has held research con- sultancies at the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, and has published widely on issues relating to macroeconomic adjustment, international finance, and fiscal policy. Steven B. Kamin is a Senior Economist in the International Finance Division of the Federal Reserve Board, where he follows financial and economic developments in Mexico. He has also served as Senior Economist for international financial affairs at the Council of Economic Advisers, and as a consultant for the World Bank. Mr Kamin received a Ph.D. in Economics from MIT in 1987, and has published research on various topics in international and devel- opment economics. Graciela L. Kaminsky is currently an Economist in the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and a Visiting Associate Professor at the Department of Economics, Johns Hopkins University. She received her Ph.D. from MIT and was an Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of California at San Diego before joining the Board of Governors. She has been a Consultant and Visiting Scholar at the IMF and World Bank and has published extensively on empirical issues in open eco- nomy macroeconomics. Daniel Kaufmann studied Economics and Statistics at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and received his Ph.D. in Economics at Harvard University. He has held a number of posts at the World Bank and was one of the authors of the World Development Report 1991, The Challenge of Development. He was appointed Principal Economist in the World Bank's newly-formed Department for the Former Soviet Union in late-1991, and in 1992 became the Bank's first Chief of Mission in Ukraine. He is currently a Visiting Scholar at the Harvard Institute for International Development. His work has taken him to Latin America, Africa, East Asia and Eastern Europe. He has published on various macroeconomic and sectoral issues of policy relevance. Notes on Contributors xi Miguel A. Kiguel is currently the Deputy General Manager for Eco- nomics and Finance and the Chief Economist at the Central Bank of Argentina, where he is on leave from the Research Department of the World Bank. He did his undergraduate work at the University of Buenos Aires and holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia Uni- versity. Dr Kiguel has taught at the University of Maryland (College Park) and at Georgetown University. His research on stabilization policy, exchange rate policy, and other macroeconomic issues has appeared in a number of professional journals. J. Saul Lizondo received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Chicago. He has been a professor of economics at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico and the University of Tucuman in Argentina, and is currently a Deputy Division Chief at the Interna- tional Monetary Fund. Dr Lizondo publishes regularly in the area of open economy macroeconomics. His research on foreign exchange regimes and balance of payments management includes numerous contributions to the theory of dual exchange rates. Nancy P. Marion is a Professor of Economics at Dartmouth College. She received her Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton University. She has served as a consultant to the IMF and has held research positions at the National Bureau of Economic Research, the Institute for International Economics, and the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. She has published extensively in the area of open economy macroeconomics and exchange-rate policy. Stephen A. O'Connell is an Associate Professor of Economics at Swarthmore College. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from MIT and has taught at the Universities of Pennsylvania and Dar es Salaam and served as a Research Associate at the University of Nairobi. Dr O'Connell has been a Ford FoundationlInterna- tional Affairs Fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations and a visiting scholar at the Centre for Study of African Economies, Oxford University. He serves as a Resource Person for the African Economic Research Consortium and has been a consultant to the Governments of Tanzania and Sweden and to the research depart- ment at the World Bank. His research on macroeconomic policy in sub-Saharan Africa has appeared in a number of professional journals.
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