P1:JYS ind JWBT294-Sinclair May7,2010 17:11 Printer:CourierWestford,Westford,MA 300 P1:JYS fm JWBT294-Sinclair April21,2010 13:33 Printer:CourierWestford,Westford,MA Option Trading i P1:JYS fm JWBT294-Sinclair April21,2010 13:33 Printer:CourierWestford,Westford,MA Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publish- ingcompanyintheUnitedStates.WithofficesinNorthAmerica,Europe, Australia,andAsia,Wileyisgloballycommittedtodevelopingandmarket- ing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ profes- sionalandpersonalknowledgeandunderstanding. TheWileyTradingseriesfeaturesbooksbytraderswhohavesurvived the market’s ever-changing temperament and have prospered—some by reinventing systems, others by getting back to basics. Whether a novice trader, professional, or somewhere in-between, these books will provide theadviceandstrategiesneededtoprospertodayandwellintothefuture. Foralistofavailabletitles,visitourwebsiteatwww.WileyFinance.com. ii P1:JYS fm JWBT294-Sinclair April21,2010 13:33 Printer:CourierWestford,Westford,MA Option Trading Pricing and Volatility Strategies and Techniques EUAN SINCLAIR JohnWiley&Sons,Inc. iii P1:JYS fm JWBT294-Sinclair April21,2010 13:33 Printer:CourierWestford,Westford,MA Copyright(cid:1)C 2010byEuanSinclair.Allrightsreserved. PublishedbyJohnWiley&Sons,Inc.,Hoboken,NewJersey. PublishedsimultaneouslyinCanada. 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Wileyalsopublishesitsbooksinavarietyofelectronicformats.Somecontentthatappearsin printmaynotbeavailableinelectronicbooks.FormoreinformationaboutWileyproducts, visitourwebsiteatwww.wiley.com. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData: Sinclair,Euan,1969- Optiontrading:pricingandvolatilitystrategiesandtechniques/EuanSinclair. p. cm.–(Wileytradingseries) Includesindex. ISBN978-0-470-49710-4(cloth) 1. Options(Finance) 2. Pricing–Mathematicalmodels. I. Title. HG6024.A3S56222010 332.63’2283–dc22 2010003139 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 iv P1:JYS fm JWBT294-Sinclair April21,2010 13:33 Printer:CourierWestford,Westford,MA Tomyparents v P1:JYS fm JWBT294-Sinclair April21,2010 13:33 Printer:CourierWestford,Westford,MA vi P1:JYS fm JWBT294-Sinclair April21,2010 13:33 Printer:CourierWestford,Westford,MA Contents Preface xi ProfessionalTrading xii TheRoleofMathematics xiv TheStructureofthisBook xvi Acknowledgments xix CHAPTER 1 History 1 Summary 6 CHAPTER 2 Introduction to Options 7 Options 9 SpecificationsforanOptionContract 9 UsesofOptions 11 MarketStructure 14 Summary 20 CHAPTER 3 Arbitrage Bounds for Option Prices 21 AmericanOptionsComparedtoEuropeanOptions 25 AbsoluteMaximumandMinimumValues 25 Summary 39 CHAPTER 4 Pricing Models 41 GeneralModelingPrinciples 42 ChoiceofDependentVariables 45 vii P1:JYS fm JWBT294-Sinclair April21,2010 13:33 Printer:CourierWestford,Westford,MA viii CONTENTS TheBinomialModel 48 TheBlack-Scholes-Merton(BSM)Model 55 Summary 61 CHAPTER 5 The Solution of the Black-Scholes-Merton (BSM) Equation 63 Delta 67 Gamma 72 Theta 76 Vega 80 Summary 88 CHAPTER 6 Option Strategies 89 ForecastingandStrategySelection 89 TheStrategies 93 Summary 116 CHAPTER 7 Volatility Estimation 117 DefiningandMeasuringVolatility 119 ForecastingVolatility 129 VolatilityinContext 132 Summary 136 CHAPTER 8 Implied Volatility 137 TheImpliedVolatilityCurve 138 ParameterizingandMeasuringtheImplied VolatilityCurve 142 TheImpliedVolatilityCurveasaFunction ofExpiration 145 ImpliedVolatilityDynamics 146 Summary 151
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