Optimal Production Balance with Wind Power

124 Pages·2013·6.71 MB·English

by  Gjert Hovland Rosenlund

Optimal Production Balance with Wind
Power
Gjert Hovland Rosenlund
Master of Energy and Environmental Engineering
Submission date: June 2013
Supervisor: Gerard Doorman, ELKRAFT
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Department of Electric Power Engineering

Preface
This thesis is submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of master of
science (M.Sc.) at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU) in Trond-
heim. It is weighted with 30 credits on the final diploma. The work done in this report is
supported by TrønderEnergi AS. My supervisor has been Professor Gerard Doorman and
my contact at TrønderEnergi has been Gunnar Aronsen and Magne Røen.
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Acknowledgements
I would like to express my gratitude to my supervisor, Professor Gerard Doorman, for his
guidance and encouragement throughout the work of this report. Also a great thanks goes
to Hossein Farahmand and Gro Klæboe, for their constructive feedback and valuable discus-
sions. Furthermore a thanks is owed to Gunnar Aaronsen at TrønderEnergi for his guidance
and help. A great thanks is also owed to Morten Hegna of Montel AS, for letting me partic-
ipate in the conference ”Nordic Price Drivers” in Oslo in April and for setting up a student
account at Montel.no.
Mycolleaguesattheo�cehavethroughouttheyearprovidedanenjoyableworkenvironment
and kept the spirit high. A great thanks is therefore owed to Robert, Sigurd, Runa, Henrik,
Raghav, Kristin and Ingri.
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Abstract
Maintaining a continuous balance between generation and load is crucial for the safeguarding
of the power system. To e�ciently deal with uncertainties and unexpected events the TSOs
procure balancing services through the so-called balancing markets.
Thevariabilityandlowpredictabilityofthewindspeedmakeshandlingofbalancesadi�cult
taskforwindpowerproducers. Literatureregardingthedevelopmentofthebalancingmarket
and Elbas is presented. This research has found that the volatility in the balancing market
are expected to increase as a result of cross-border integration of such markets. The low
liquidity in the Norwegian Elbas market are expected to rise, as the need of an intraday
market becomes more imminent. With increased investments in renewable energy and cross-
border capacity the balancing markets are expected to change. With higher volatility in the
markets the balancing of production will come at a higher cost. In this report the current
wind power balancing done by TrønderEnergi is presented and some possible improvements
to better handle the balance, are drafted.
The wind power production error and the price in the balancing market are modeled. A
Monte Carlo analysis is carried out for three di↵erent alternatives:
1. Settling the imbalances in the balancing market.
2. Settling the imbalances in Elbas.
3. Settling the imbalances by using the re-bidding procedure.
The parameters are modeled stochastically, so the simulations are carried out a large number
of times to get conclusive results.
It is the findings of this thesis that the implemented two-price system in the production
balance leads to a large deficit when balancing the wind power production. The procedure
currently used at TrønderEnergi saves the company a significant amount per annum, but
as Elbas matures, this market should be exploited for reducing the costs of balancing and
possibly profit seeking operations.
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Samandrag
˚A oppretthalda ein kontinuerleg balanse mellom forbruk og produksjon av straum er essen-
sielt for tryggleiken til det elektriske kraftsystemet. For˚a e↵ektivt kunne takla usikkerheit
i forbruk og produksjon, samt uforutsette hendingar sikrar systemansvarleg balansetenester
gjennom regulerkraftmarknaden.
Usikkerheit knytt til vindstyrken gjer balansehandteringa til ei vanskeleg oppg˚ave for pro-
dusentar av vindkraft. Litteratur som omhandlar utviklinga til regulerkraftmarknaden og
intradag markedet, Elbas, er presentert i denne rapporten. Dette litteratursøket konkluderer
med at volatiliteten i regulerkraftmarknaden er sp˚add og auke. Dette grunna internasjonal
integrering av denne marknaden. Det er vidare forventa at den l˚age likviditeten i Elbas
skal ta seg opp, d˚a ettersprselen etter ein slik marknad vil auke. Dette grunna investering i
uregulerbare energikjelder og overføringskapasitet til utlandet. Auka volatilitet vil medføre
høgare kostnadar i handteringa av vindkraft. I denne rapporten er ubalansehandteringa til
TrønderEnergi presentert og nokre forbetringar er føresltt.
Usikkerheita i vindkraftproduksjonen og prisane i regulerkraftmarknaden er modellert og
Monte Carlo simuleringar er utført for tre forskjellige alternativ.
1. Handtere ubalansen i regulerkraftmarknaden.
2. Handtere ubalansen i Elbas.
3. Handtere ubalansen etter hengetimeprinsippet.
Sidan dei forskjellege parameterane er stokastisk modellerte er simuleringane gjentekne eit
stort antall gonger, for˚a gi konkluderande resultat.
Denne rapporten konkluderer med at den implementerte prosedyren hj˚a TrønderEnergi
sparar dei for store kostnader ˚arleg, men dersom Elbas utviklar seg som sp˚add, bør denne
marknaden utnyttast for˚a redusere balansekostnadene.
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