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MODELLING THE WORLD
The Social Constructions of Systems Analysts
VOLUME ONE
BY
BRIAN PETER BLOOMFIELD BSc.
A thesis submitted towards the degree of Doctor of
Philosophy in the Discipline of Systems, Faculty of
Technology,The Open University,March 1984
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Modelling the World. The Social
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Constructions of Systems Analysts
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ABSTRACT
This dissertation is concerned with a case study of system dynamics, a
well-known simulation modelling methodology, and its implicit theory of
social system behaviour. System dynamics is policy oriented and is
directed towards the control and management of social systems. It
originally evolved i n the context of military systems and then the
application of systems engineering to the problems of corporate
management, but was later expanded to tackle the problems of urban decay,
population growth, and environmental collapse. It is therefore now aimed
at large scale social engineering.
The aim of the dissertation is to take tools drawn largely from the
sociology of knowledge in order to provide a perspective on the
development of this particular strand of the systems movement. We
investigate the status of system dynamics as a cultural artefact which
is both a product of social structures and a resource for mediating and
reinforcing such structures. The dissertation is addressed to the
systems community, but must al30 meet the academic standards of the
sociology of knowledge.
There are seven chapters. The first two deal with the background to
system dynamics and with methodological aspects of the perspective
adopted in our approach. The following two chapters exanine system
dynamics as a social construction: firstly, with special emphasis on the
social development of the cultural context in which it evolved; and
secondly, on the social experience and cosmology of the System Dynamics
Group at MIT. The next two chapters deal with the social effects of
system dynamics, particularly its role as a 'binding agent' in
negotiating social consensus. The seventh and final chapter discusses
our conclusions.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like to express my appreciation to J.Naughton (Systems Group, The
Open University) and G.H. de Vries (Department of Philosophy,
Rijksuniversiteit Groningen, The Netherlands) for their encouragment,
guidance and constructive criticisms during the course of the research
described herein. Thanks are also due to colleagues and friends at the
Open University and at the Rijksuniversiteit Groningen who have
provided both intellectual and moral support. Financial support was
provided by the SERC and the Open University.
Parts of Chapter Four have been published as 'Cosmology, Knowledge and
Social Structure: The Case of Forrester and System Dynamics', Journal of
Applied Systems Analysis, 9, 1982, 3-15.
CONTENTS
PREFACE 1
CHAPTER ONE THE BACKGROUND TO SYSTEM DYNAMICS 8
1.1 FORRESTER'S CAREER 9
1.2 HISTORY OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS 10
1.2.1 URBAN DYNAMICS 15
1.2.2 WORLD DYNAMICS 18
1.2.3 THE LIMITS TO GROWTH 20
1.2.4 THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS NATIONAL MODEL 20
1.2.5 A NOTE ON CONVENTIONS 21
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CHAPTER TWO SYSTEM DYNAMICS A CULTURAL ARTEFACT 22
2.1 AN ALTERNATIVE MODEL OF THE RELATIONSHIP 27
BETWEEN KNOWLEDGE AND SOCIAL STRUCTURE
2.1.1 THE SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION OF KNOWLEDGE 30
2.1.2 THE SOCIAL EFFECT OF KNOWLEDGE 32
2.2 A NOTE ON REFLEXIVITY 35
2.3 THE INTERPRETATIONO F TEXTS 35
CHAPTER THREE FORRESTER'S WORK AS A PRODUCT OF SOCIAL 39
DEVELOPMENT
3.0 INTRODUCTION 40
3.1 THE WORLDVIEUS OF PARSONS AND FORRESTER 44
3.1.1 PROCESS-REDUCTION 44
3.1.2 THE ONENESS OF THE WORLD 45
3.1.3 CONFLICT 46
3.1.4 COMMON INTERESTS 47
3.1.5 INTERDEPENDENCE 4a
3.1.6 SYSTEM REQUISITES 49
3.2 PARSONS' WORK AS A PRODUCT OF SOCIAL 53
DEVELOPMENT
3.2.1 THE PERTINENCE OF GOULDNER'S CONCLUSIONS 56
FOR THE CASE OF FORRESTER
3.3 THEORETICAL SHIFTS AND SOCIAL CONTEXT 50
3.4 SUMMARY 65
CHAPTER FOUR COSMOLOGY, KNOWLEDGE AND SOCIAL STRUCTURE 67
4.0 INTRODUCTION 60
4.1 COSMOLOGY AND SOCIAL STRUCTURE 69
4.1.1 LINGUSITIC CODES 70
4.1.2 THE GRID-GROUP DIAGRAM 75
4.1.3 THE RESPONSE TO ANOMALIES AND THOUGHT STYLE 77
4.1.4 PROBLEMS WITH THE GRID-GROUP THEORY 78
4.2 COXPARATIVE HETHOD a4
4.2.1 CHOICE OF CONTROL GROUP 04
4.2.2 CHOICE OF COMPARATIVE ELEMENTS a5
4.2.3 SCIENCE POLICY RESEARCH UNIT(SPRU) 07
4.2.4 OTHER POSSIBLE GROUPS 09
4.3 THE CULTURAL SETTING OF SDG AND SPRU 90
4.3.1 SDG 91
4.3.2 SPRU 99
4.4 STRATEGIES FOR DEALING UITR ANONALIES: 103
THE BACKCASTING DEBATE
4.4.1 INTRODUCTION TO BACKCASTING 103
4.4.2 HISTORY OF THE DEBATE 106
4.4.3 ANOMALIES AND STRATEGIES FOR COPING 115
WITH THEM
4.4.4 COPING WITH THE WORLD 2 ANOMALIES 121
4.4.5 IMPROVED MODELS 128
4.4.6 SDG'S APPROACH TO MODELLING 131
4.4.7 SPRU'S APPROACH TO MODELLING 134
4.4.8 THE SOCIAL CONSTRUCTION OF ERROR 138
4.5 THE COSMOLOGY OF THE SYSTEM DYNAMICS GROUP 144
4.5.1 KNOWLEDGE 144
4.5.2 NATURE 146
4.5.3 MAN AND SOCIETY 140
4.5.4 TIME 151
4.6 THE COSHOLOGY OF THE SCIENCE POLICY 152
RESEARCH UNIT
4.6.1 KNOWLEDCE 152
4.6.2 NATURE 154
4.6.3 MAN AND SOCIETY 156
4.6.4 TIME 157
4.7 CONCLUSIONS 159
CHAPTER FIVE URBAN DYNAMICS AS A SOCIAL BINDING AGENT 164
5.0 INTRODUCTION 165
5.1 THE BACKGROUND TO URBAN DYNAMICS 167
5.2 CHARACTERISTICS OF TBE IIIIBAN STRUCTURE 168
5.3 KNOWLEDGE AS A CONSERVATIVE OR RADICAL 173
FORCE
5.4 KNOWLEDGE AS A EXPLANATORY RESOURCE 178
5.5 LEGITIMATION 181
5.6 ROLE OF SYSTEM DYNAMICS EXPERTS 186
5.7 SUMMARY 192
CHAPTER SIX THE SOCIAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL EFFECTS OF 194
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SYSTEM DYNAMICS THE CASE OF THE WORLD
MODELS
6.0 INTRODUCTION 195
6.1 THE MESSAGE OF THE WORLD MODELS 198
6.2 THE SOCIAL ROOTS OF BELIEF 200
6.3 EXPECTED RESPONSES TO THE MODELS 20 3
6.4 DIFFERENT INTERPRETATIONS OF THE MESSAGE 208
6.5 DEEPER SOCIAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL QUESTIONS 216
6.6 SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND ASTROLOGY 219
6.6.1 MESSAGE CONTENT 222
6.6.2 STRUCTURES AS BELIEF SYSTEMS 223
6.6.3 SOCIAL EFFECTS 225
6.7 SUMMARY 227
CHAPTER SEVEN CONCLUSIONS 229
7.0 SUHHARY 230
7.1 RELATIONSHIP WITH OTHER LINES OF ENQUIRY 235
7.2 RESERVATIONS 237
7.3 IDEAS FOR FURTHER WORK 239
NOTES AND REFERENCES 24 1
BIBLIOORAPAI 279
LIST OF DIAGRAMS
CHAPTER ONE
Figure (1 ) Flow diagram for the world model 1%
Figure (2) Standard run of World 2 19b
Figure (3) The development of Forrester's work 21a
Figures ( 1 ) h (2) are taken from:
J.W.Forrester, 'World Dynamics' (Wright-Allen Press Inc. 1971)
CHAPTER FOUR
Figure (i) General cosmological ideas 72a
Figure (2) Douglas' grid-group diagram 75a
Figure (3) Clusters of comparative elements 06a
Figure (4) Standard run of World 2 104a
Figure (5) Backcast of World 2 104a
Figure (6) Alternative curves for DRMM 107a
Figure (7) Crude birth and death rates 107a
Figure (8) Curve for CIM 1233
Figure (9) Bloors modified grid-group diagram 139a
Figure ( 10) The grid-group positions of SDG and SPRU 162a
CHAPTER SIX
Figure (1 ) Elements in the Limits to Growth Message 199a
Figure (2) Two interpretations of the message 202a
Anthropologists tell us that reality is always a social construction,
that our conceptions of the social and natural worlds are mediated by
social relations. In contrast to the position adopted by those scholars
who argue that the intrusion of social factors into the production of
knowledge leads to error or falsity, the notion that reality is socially
constructed does not imply judgements about the validity of our socially
produced knowledge. Rather, it aims to make explicit the existential
conditions which underpin the ways in which we think about the world,
and indeed, which make knowlcdge possible.
In this dissertation we w i l l employ this idea to examine a controversial
t,heory about the nature of man's place i n the world and the problems
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which confront him. This theory known as system dynamics suggests
that man lives i n a network of social systems (incorporating economic,
political, and ecological subsystems) and that the properties of these
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systems determine many of the problems from famine to overcrowding,
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and from unemployment to ecological collapse which have caused much
public concern over the past ten years or so. System dynamics purports
to explain the causes of these problems and to provide a resource for
devising policies to remedy them.
We are not primarily interested in the truth or falsity of the
propositions of system dynamics but rather in its status as a socially
constructed body of knowledge. We aim to unravel the interconnections of
this construction in order to seek some insights into how this systems
view of the world has been generated.
System dynamics was originally developed within the Sloan School of
Management at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the United
States. Its intellectual roots stem from systems engineering and the
design of technological systems. Having achieved considerable success
with such applications, systems engineering was later generalised to
become a tool for the design and control of social systems, i.e. social
engineering. It was thought that it could bring a more rigorous and
objective approach to policy formation.
System dynamics is thus policy oriented, and is concerned with the
management and control of social systems. Further, it belongs to the
class of theories known asgeneral systems theories which aim to explain
the properties of systems, whether physical, social or other types.