Offshore Risk Assessment Vol. 1: Principles, Modelling and Applications of QRA Studies

580 Pages·2020·10.699 MB·English

by  Jan-Erik Vinnem, Willy Røed

Springer Series in Reliability Engineering
Jan-Erik Vinnem
Willy Røed
Offshore Risk
Assessment
Vol. 1
Principles, Modelling and Applications
of QRA Studies
Fourth Edition
Springer Series in Reliability Engineering
Series Editor
Hoang Pham, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering
Rutgers University, Piscataway, NJ, USA
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/6917
ø
Jan-Erik Vinnem Willy R ed
(cid:129)
Offshore Risk Assessment
Vol. 1
Principles, Modelling and Applications
of QRA Studies
Fourth Edition
123
Jan-ErikVinnem WillyRøed
Faculty of Engineering Faculty of Science andTechnology
NorwegianUniversity of Science University of Stavanger
andTechnology Stavanger, Norway
Trondheim, Norway
ISSN 1614-7839 ISSN 2196-999X (electronic)
SpringerSeries inReliability Engineering
ISBN978-1-4471-7443-1 ISBN978-1-4471-7444-8 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4471-7444-8
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Preface to Fourth Edition
This is the fourth edition of the book; the first edition was published in 1999, the
secondeditionin2007andthethirdeditionin2014.Thisversionrepresentsanew
development where we have been two authors co-operating on the updating of the
manuscript. My earlier M.Sc. and Ph.D. student and good friend, Willy Røed,
AdjunctProfessorattheUniversityofStavanger,DepartmentofSafety,Economics
and Planning, and consultant in Proactima in Stavanger, has shared the workload
with me regarding the updating of the chapters and the new text.
The original author has since 2014 been professor at NTNU, Department of
MarineTechnology,Trondheim,inmarineoperationalrisk.Theauthorshavebeen
involvedinseveralsignificantresearchprojectsduringthelastfewyears.Somefew
majoraccidentsworldwidehavehadaconsiderableeffectontheHESperformance
andawareness,inadditiontothesubstantialfallofoilpricein2013.Thisprompted
a need for a further update of the book.
Norwegian offshore installations have for more than 40 years been large and
complex and manned installations with extensive maintenance needs. Manning
levels have been reduced from a few hundred to around one hundred and consid-
erably less for recent installations. There is now an interest in unmanned, simple
wellhead installations, as they are less expensive to install than subsea production
equipment. The first normally unmanned wellhead installation in the Norwegian
sector will start to operate in stand-alone mode from the first half of 2019. It is
envisaged that within a few years, also unmanned production installations, fixed
and floating, will be developed. Unmanned installations have been used in other
offshore sectors (UK, the Netherlands, USA, etc.), but these have been small,
simple, shallow water installations. In future, we may find quite complex,
unmannedproductioninstallationsalsoindeepwateriftechnologyoptimistsareto
bebelieved.Anextensivenewchapter(22)isdevotedtodiscussionofsomeofthe
challenges that unmanned installations are faced with.
Gratitude is expressed to theSpringer Nature Publishers (London), inparticular
ExecutiveEditorAnthonyDoyle,ProjectCoordinatorArunKumarAnbalaganand
their staff, for agreeingtopublishthefourtheditionofthis book andfor providing
inspiring and valuable advice and assistance throughout the process.
v
vi PrefacetoFourthEdition
AppendixAhasbeenupdatedwiththelatestoverviewofsomeoftheimportant
softwaretoolsthatarecommonlyusedinoffshoreriskassessment.Thankstoallthe
consultancies and software suppliers who have provided the information required
for the update of this appendix.
There are also several people who have kindly contributed to relevant infor-
mation on various aspects or prepared small text sections for us to use; Dr. Haibo
Chen,consultanttoLloyd’sRegisterConsulting,China;SiljeFrostBudde,Safetec
Nordic; Sandra Hogenboom, DNV GL (Ph.D. student at NTNU); Petter Johnsen,
Presight Solutions; Kenneth Titlestad, Sopra Steria; Dr. Xingwei Zhen, Dalian
University of Technology, China; Odd W. Brude, DNV GL; Kaia Stødle, Ph.D.
student at UiS; and Eldbjørg Holmaas, Proactima. Many thanks to all of you for
valuable assistance.
Karoline Lilleås Skretting, M.Sc. student at the Department of Marine
Technology, NTNU, has been our assistant during the final stages of the revision
work. Shehasmainlybeen assisting with theupdating of Appendix A,in addition
tosomeothereditorialtasks,andthishasbeenveryhelpfultofinishingtherevision
workinatimelymanner.WearegratefulfortheexcellentworkdonebyKaroline.
TheDepartmentofMarineTechnology,NTNU,hassupportedthepublishingofthe
book by paying the salary for Karoline.
Safetec Nordic has allowed us to use their QRAToolkit software, whereas
ConocoPhillips, Equinor and Vår Energi have allowed us to use the results from a
JointIndustryProjectoncollisionriskmodelling.WearealsogratefultotheRISP
projectanditscontributorsforprovidingaccesstorelevantinformationandresults
before the RISP project is finalised.
April 2019 Jan-Erik Vinnem
Professor, Norwegian University
of Science and Technology
Trondheim, Norway
Willy Røed
Adjunct Professor, University of Stavanger
Stavanger, Norway
Preface to Third Edition
Thisisthethirdeditionofthebook;thefirsteditionwaspublishedin1999andthe
second edition in 2007. The author has since then returned to an adjunct profes-
sorship at University of Stavanger, Norway, teaching a course in applied offshore
riskassessment.StartingfromJanuary2013,theauthorisalsoadjunctprofessorat
NTNU, Trondheim in marine operational risk. The author has been involved in
several significant research projects during the last few years. Several major acci-
dents worldwide have had considerable effect on the HES performance and
awareness,nottheleasttheMacondoaccidentin2010.Thispromptedaneedfora
further update of the book.
Norwegian offshore regulations were profoundly revised around the beginning
of the new century, with new regulation becoming law from 2002. A limited
revision was implemented from 2011, mainly limited to the integration of onshore
petroleum facilities. This edition of the book captures some of the experience and
challengesfromtheapplicationofthenewregulations.Theimportantaspectsofthe
new regulations are also briefly discussed, see Chapter 1.
About30majoraccidentsandincidentsarediscussedatsomelengthinChapters
4 and 5 (Macondo accident), in order to demonstrate what problems have been
experienced in the past. I have increased the emphasis on this subject in both the
secondandthirdeditions,becauseitisessentialthatalsonewgenerationsmaylearn
from what occurred in the past. Where available, observations about barrier per-
formance are discussed in addition to the sequence of events and lessons learned.
It is often claimed “what is measured will be focused upon”. This implies that
even if QRA studies have several weaknesses and limitations, quantification is the
best way to focus the attention in major hazard risk management. This is also one
of the lessons from the Macondo accident, in the author’s view. It has therefore
been surprising to realise how strong the opposition to QRA studies still is at the
endof2012frommanyprofessionalsinmajorinternationaloilcompanies.Thishas
tosomeextentgivenfurtherinspirationtoupdatethisbook,aboutatopicIconsider
crucialforimprovementofmajorhazardriskmanagementintheoffshorepetroleum
industry.
vii
viii PrefacetoThirdEdition
ThanksareexpressedtoSpringerLondonpublishers,inparticularSeniorEditor
Anthony Doyle and his staff, for agreeing to publishthe third edition of this book,
and for providing inspiring and valuable advice and assistance throughout the
process.
Appendix A presents an overview of some of the important software tools that
arecommonlyusedinoffshoreriskassessment.Thankstoalltheconsultanciesand
software suppliers who have provided the information required for the update of
this appendix.
There are also several people who have kindly contributed with relevant infor-
mation on various aspects; Torleif Husebø, PSA; Prof. Stein Haugen, NTNU;
Celma Regina Hellebust, Hellebust International Consultants, Prof. Bernt Aadnøy,
UiS and Dr. Haibo Chen, Scandpower Inc. China. Many thanks for valuable
assistance to all of you.
MeihuaFanghasbeenmyassistantduringthefinalstagesoftherevisionwork,
during her stay in Norway as the wife of a student at UiS in an international MSc.
program in offshore risk management. Meihua has a M.Sc. degree in safety tech-
nologyandengineeringfromChinaUniversityofGeosciencesinBeijingandHES
managementexperiencefromSINOPECinChinaandLatinAmerica,andhasbeen
anidealassistant.ThemaintaskhasbeentheupdatingofAppendixA,inaddition
to several other editorial tasks, which has been very helpful to finish the revision
workinatimelymanner.Iamverygratefulfortheexcellentassistanceprovidedby
Meihua.
Last, but not least, I am very grateful to those companies that responded posi-
tively when asked for a modest support in order to cover the expenses involved in
the production of this third revision. My warmest and most sincere thanks go to
these companies:
(cid:129) Faroe Petroleum Norway
(cid:129) Norwegian oil and gas association
(cid:129) Total E&P Norway
(cid:129) VNG Norway
Bryne, May 2013 Jan-Erik Vinnem
Adjunct Professor
University of Stavanger & NTNU
Preface to Second Edition
Thisisthesecondeditionofthebook;thefirsteditionwaspublishedin1999.The
author has since then taken up a full professorship at University of Stavanger,
Norway,teachingcoursesinoffshoreriskanalysisandmanagement.Thisprompted
aneedforanupdateofthebook.Thefactthatseveralimportantdevelopmentshave
occurred since 1999 also implied that a major revision was required.
Theoilpricehasreacheditspeakin2006,atthehighestlevelever(nominally).
But the economic climate is at the same time such that every effort is made to
scrutinise how costs may be curtailed and profit maximised. This will in many
circumstances call for careful consideration of risks, not just an ‘off the shelf risk
analysis’, but a carefully planned and broad-ranging assessment of options and
possibilities to reduce risk.
Norwegian offshore regulations were profoundly revised around the beginning
of the new century, with new regulation becoming law from 2002. This second
edition of the book captures some of the experience and challenges from the first
4–5 years of application of the new regulations. The important aspects of the new
regulations are also briefly discussed, see Chapter 1.
The first Norwegian White Paper on HES management in the offshore industry
was publishedin 2001,and the second in 2006.One ofthe needs identifiedin this
paper was the need to perform more extensive R&D work in this field, and a
significant programme has been running in the period 2002–06. Some of the new
results included in the second edition of the book result from that R&D initiative.
About 20 major accidents, mainly from the North Sea, are discussed at some
lengthinChapter4,inordertodemonstratewhatproblemshavebeenexperienced
inthepast.Ihaveputmoreemphasisonthissubjectinthesecondedition,because
it is essential that also new generations may learn from what occurred in the past.
Where available, observations about barrier performance are discussed in addition
to the sequence of events and lessons learned.
When it comes to management of risk and decision-making based upon results
fromriskanalyses,thisisdiscussed separately inabookpublished inparallelwith
my colleague at University of Stavanger, Professor Terje Aven, also published by
ix