Of Ants and Men: The Unexpected Side Effects of Complexity in Society

270 Pages·2014·3.41 MB·English

by  David G. Green (auth.)

The Unexpected Side Effects
of Complexity in Society
David G. Green
Of Ants and Men
David G. Green
Of Ants and Men
The Unexpected Side Effects
of Complexity in Society
123
Copernicus Books is a brand of Springer
David G.Green
Faculty ofInformation Technology
Monash University
Clayton, VIC
Australia
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DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-55230-4
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Preface
This book arose out of a previous book, The Serendipity Machine, in which
I explored the many ways in which modern computing exploits unexpected
discovery. The final chapter of that book briefly explored the ways in which the
information revolution was itself leading society into unexpected ‘‘discoveries’’
aboutnewwaysofworkingandliving.Inthecourseofwritingthebook,itbecame
evident that the unexpected consequences of using computers were symptomatic
ofamuchwidersetofprocessesatworkinsociety.Exploringanddevelopingthis
insight led directly to this book.
Before I am attacked for sexism, I should explain the title. The title is an
allusiontothepoemToaMouse,writtenbyRobertBurnsin1785.Itcontainsthe
famous line:
Thebest-laidschemeso’micean’mengangaftagley.
Here I have adapted this line to refer to the way humans plans go wrong
becausewearelikeants:busywithourindividualconcernswithoutbeingawareof
the wider consequences.
Recently, a number of ideas about social complexity have surfaced in popular
literature. Some have even entered the language as common expressions, such as
‘‘six degrees of separation’’ and ‘‘tipping point.’’ However, for the most part they
have been presented as interesting, but isolated ideas. One goal of this book has
beentoshowhowtheseideasallfitintoalarger,morecomprehensiveframework
of social complexity. Networks provide a good model for understanding
complexity. Here I use them to show how many familiar ideas arise as natural
consequences of social and other networks.
Theproblemintryingtowriteaboutsocialcomplexityisthatthereissomuch
ofit.Thecurseoftryingtopulltogethersomanyideasandissuesintoacoherent
theory is that it is impossible to deal with any single issue in-depth. This applies
both to individual examples, such as the origins of World War I, and to major
issues, such as the discussion of environment in Chap. 19. It also applies to the
geographic spread of examples. The risk is that by delving too deeply into such
issues, the main themes could be lost among the detail.
Likewise,Ihavetriedtoprovideexamples,aswellasstatisticalevidence,from
manycountries.However,intoday’sglobalizedworld,similarissuestendtoarise
in every part of the developed world, so I have sometimes used cases from my
v
vi Preface
homecountryAustraliaastypicalexamples.OverallIhavetriedtostrikeabalance
between maintaining the thread of ideas and providing enough stories and
examples to clarify them.
In all of the above cases, I have had to strike a balance between telling the
whole story and clearly describing the role played by unconscious side effects in
creating the situation. The problem is that many of the topics I need to touch on
could be the subject of entire books; more than a few have been. Chapter 18, for
instance, concerns economic growth, which has been the subject of countless
books and debates. Likewise Chap. 19, which concerns the global environment,
draws heavily on my book Complexity in Landscape Ecology, as do several
examples presented in other chapters. Humanity’s impact upon the environment
hasbeenthesubjectofintensedebateandconflict.Inbothchapters,Ihavehadto
restrict myself to showing that these issues, of intense public debate, arise as
unintended trends produced by human activity.
Alotwentintothemakingofthisbook.Itrestsonyearsofobservations.These
have been filtered by theory, and tens of thousands of words have been deleted
from early drafts.
I am grateful for the generous help and support of family, friends, and col-
leagues at every stage of this work. Several family members, Dr. Tony Green,
Cheryl Green, and my wife Yvonne Green, provided many useful insights and
suggestions. My daughter Hilary Green provided a cover picture. Colleagues also
made significant contributions. I am grateful to Dr. Suzanne Sadedin and Les
Hughes for many helpful discussions, as well as constructive feedback and com-
ments on drafts of several chapters. Dr. Joanne Evans and Prof. Julie Fisher also
provided useful feedback about several chapters. Dr. David Squire checked the
entire text with his text analysis program Damocles. His cross chapter analysis
helped me to avoid duplication and to build coherent threads of ideas and
examples. His plagiarism check revealed just how easy it is to fall into using
clichéd phrases! Marc Cheong provided useful feedback on drafts of the entire
manuscript. Finally, Jacob Matthews did a thorough job of proof reading the
manuscript, as well as providing many useful suggestions. I am grateful to all of
the above for their help, support, and encouragement.
Melbourne, Australia David G. Green
Contents
1 From Bad to Worse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
A Night of Terror . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
From Bad to Worse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Unintended Consequences. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
The Immediate Drives Out the Important . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
The Challenge of Complexity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
The Best Laid Plans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
End Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
2 Of Ants and Men. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Why are Left-Handers Good at Sport? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Location, Location, Location. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
The Ant Hill . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Of Ants and Men. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
The Human Ant Heap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
End Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
3 A Tangled Web . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Keep it Simple . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
A Tangled Web. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
A Flock of Birds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
A Game of Chess. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Batteries Not Included . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
Winning Strategies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
On Being Lucky . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
End Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
4 The Eye of the Beholder. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
The Glass Half Empty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
From Toy Ships to Fashion Parades. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Seeing the Wood for the Trees . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
vii
viii Contents
In the Lap of the Gods. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Witch Hunts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Here and Now. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
End Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
5 The Animal Within. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Basic Instincts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
The Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
No Place Like Home . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Looking Good. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Elvis Lives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Conquering Nature?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
End Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
6 More Things in Heaven and Earth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Over the Top. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Reality Unchecked. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58
The Space Race Springs a Leak. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Closing the Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60
More Things in Heaven and Earth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62
The Unsinkable Titanic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
End Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
7 The Sting in the Tail . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Biased Samples. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Means and Extremes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
All Roads Lead to Disaster. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
Managing Social Extremes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70
Eliminating Extremes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
From Bias to Prejudice. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Force of Habit. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
A Frog in Hot Water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
End Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
8 Divide and Rule. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Why is a House Like a Handbag? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Divide and Rule. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
Morning Tea at the Office . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
Climbing the Pyramid. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
The Brittleness of Modern Technology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Thinking Inside a Closed Box. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Playing by the Numbers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
Measuring the Worth of Things. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
End Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
Contents ix
9 One Thing Leads to Another . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
A Chain of Events. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
The Domino Principle . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
A Horror Plane Trip. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97
From Due Care to the Nanny State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Armageddon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100
End Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
10 The Snowball Effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
Snowballs and Bank Accounts. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
An Eye for an Eye. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
From Ants Hills to Town Planning . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
Location, Location, Location. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
The Big Get Bigger . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
The South Seas Bubble. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
Mississippi Madness. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110
The Land of Milk and Honey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 111
Winners and Losers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
Why Do Some Guys Have All the Luck?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
End Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114
11 A Deadly Cascade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
Why Experts Fail. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117
What If?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119
The Art of Compromise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121
Dimensions of Being . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
The Platypus and the Echidna. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
Cascading Contexts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
End Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
12 Collateral Damage . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
New Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Collateral Damage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 132
Benri Desu Ka?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Technological Change and Society. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Economies of Scale . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 136
Serendipity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139
Torrents of Change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
End Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
13 The Straw that Broke the Camel’s Back. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
Why Is a Starfish Like an Atomic Bomb? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145
The Tapestry of Fate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
The Straw that Broke the Camel’s Back. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
x Contents
Crisis of Confidence. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 150
The Butterfly Effect. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
The Big Break. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
Avalanches and Cascades . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
Horror at Tenerife . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156
End Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157
14 On Being Well Connected. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
Degrees of Separation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
A Small World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 162
How Well Connected is the World Wide Web?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
Who You Know, Not What You Know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 166
Dying Alone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
End Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
15 The Herd Instinct. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
Don’t Panic. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
The Madness of Crowds. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
The DOT-COM Bubble . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 173
Boom and Bust . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
Calling All Rioters. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
Follow the Herd. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177
Law and Disorder . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 180
The Eagle and the Ant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 181
End Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 183
16 The Subatomic Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
One Big Happy Family. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
The Harmless Refrigerator . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 186
The Way We Are . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 190
The Subatomic Family . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
End Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193
17 The Global Village. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
The Information Explosion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
Society’s Memory Banks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197
The Global Village. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 198
Big Brother is Watching. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
The Power of the Media. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 204
End Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207