Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia: New Technologies and Challenges to Sustainable Peace (Routledge Security in Asia Series)

237 Pages·2019·2.484 MB·English

by  Rizwana Abbasi, Zafar Khan

Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia
This book explores evolving patterns of nuclear deterrence, the impact of new
technologies, and changing deterrent force postures in the South Asian region to
assess future challenges for sustainable peace and stability.
Under the core principles of the security dilemma, this book analyzes the pre-
vailing security environment in South Asia and offers unilateral, bilateral, and
multilateral frameworks to stabilize peace and ensure deterrence stability in the
South Asian region. Moreover, contending patterns of deterrence dynamics in
the South Asian region are further elaborated as becoming inextricably inter-
linked with the broader security dynamics of the Asia-P acific region and the
interactions with the United States and China’s Belt and Road Initiative. As
India and Pakistan are increasingly becoming part of the competing strategies
exercised by the United States and China, the authors analyze how strategic
uncertainty and fear faced by these rival states cause the introduction of new
technologies which could gradually drift these competing states into more
serious crises and military conflicts.
Presenting innovative solutions to emerging South Asian challenges and
offering new security mechanisms for sustainable peace and stability, this book
will be of interest to academics and policymakers working on Asian Security
studies, Nuclear Strategy, and International Relations.
Rizwana Abbasi is an Associate Professor in the Department of Humanities and
Social Sciences at Bahria University, Pakistan and a fellow of East West Insti-
tute, New York, USA. She is the author of Pakistan and the New Nuclear
Taboo: Regional Deterrence and the International Arms Control Regime (2012).
Zafar Khan is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Strategic Studies at
National Defence University, Pakistan. He is the author of Pakistan’s Nuclear
Policy: A Minimum Credible Deterrence published by Routledge in 2014.
Routledge Security in Asia Series
6 China’s Rise – Threat or Opportunity?
Edited by Herbert S. Yee
7 India and the South Asian Strategic Triangle
Ashok Kapur
8 Southeast Asia and the Rise of China
The Search for Security
Ian Storey
9 China’s Strategic Competition with the United States
Russell Ong
10 The Origins of U.S. Policy in the East China Sea Islands Dispute
Okinawa’s Reversion and the Senkaku Islands
Robert D. Eldridge
11 Arming Asia
Technonationalism and its Impact on Local Defense Industries
Richard A. Bitzinger
12 The China–Japan Conflict over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands
Useful Rivalry
Anna Costa
13 Vietnam, Territoriality and the South China Sea
Paracel and Spratly Islands
Hãn Nguyên Nguyễn Nhã, edited by Vinh-T  he Lam
14 Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia
New Technologies and Challenges to Sustainable Peace
Rizwana Abbasi and Zafar Khan
Nuclear Deterrence in
South Asia
New Technologies and Challenges to
Sustainable Peace
Rizwana Abbasi and Zafar Khan
First published 2020
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
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Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2020 Rizwana Abbasi and Zafar Khan
The right of Rizwana Abbasi and Zafar Khan to be identified as authors of
this work has been asserted by them in accordance with sections 77 and 78
of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now
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without intent to infringe.
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ISBN: 978-0-367-21969-7 (hbk)
ISBN: 978-0-429-26908-0 (ebk)
Typeset in Times New Roman
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Contents
  List of abbreviations vi
Introduction 1
1 New technologies and the systemic security dilemma:
US–China–India–Pakistan 20
2 The Indo- US increasing strategic partnership and regional
stability 48
3 India’s evolving nuclear strategy under the essentials of
its minimum deterrence: limitations and challenges 70
4 Pakistan’s evolving nuclear policy: the pursuit of balance
sans parity 96
5 Crises dynamics and the escalation dominance strategy in
South Asia 115
6 Balancing and stabilizing South Asia: challenges and
opportunities for sustainable peace and stability 149
Conclusion 179
Bibliography 195
Index 212
Abbreviations
A2/AD Area Access, Area Denial
AAD Advanced Air Defense
ABM Anti- Ballistic Missile Treaty
ALCMs Airfield Lighting Control and Monitoring System
APEC Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
ASW Anti- Submarine Warfare
ATV Advanced Technology Vessel
BJP Bharatiya Janata Party
BMD Ballistic Missile Defence
BRI Belt and Road Initiative
C&C Command and Control
CBMs Confidence- Building Measures
CENTO Central Treaty Organization
CFE Conventional Forces in Europe
CIRUS Canada-India-Reactor, US
COMCASA Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement
CPGS Prompt Global Strikes
CSD Cold Start Doctrine
CTBT Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
DCLs Direct Communication Links
DF Dong Feng
DGMOs Director General Military Operations
DND Draft Nuclear Doctrine
DOD Department of Defense
DRDO Defence Research and Development Organisation
DTTI Defence Trade Treaty Initiative
EAS East Asia Summit
EMALS Electromagnetic aircraft launch system
EW Electronic Warfare
FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation
FMCT Fissile Missile Cut-O ff Treaty
G8 Group of Eight
Abbreviations vii
GBSD Ground Based Strategic Deterrent
GDP Gross Domestic Product
IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
IBGs Integrated Battle Groups
ICBMs Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles
IOR Indian Ocean Region
JeM Jaish- e-Muhammad
LEMOA Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement
LeT Lashkar- e-Taiyyaba
LoC Line of Control
LRSO Long Range Standoff Missile
MAD Mutual Assured Destruction
MIRVs Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicles
MRBM Medium Range Ballistic Missiles
MWe Megawatt Electrical
NAVCENT Naval Forces Central Command
NCA National Command Authority
NCBMs Nuclear Confidence-B uilding Measure
NFU No- First Use
NNPA Nuclear Non- Proliferation Act
NNWS Non- Nuclear Weapon States
NPR Nuclear Posture Review
NPT Non- Proliferation Treaty
NRRCs Nuclear Risk Reduction Centers
NSG Nuclear Suppliers Group
NWS Nuclear Weapon States
PAD Prithvi Air Defense
PAEC Pakistan’s Atomic Energy Commission
PAO Pro- Active Operations
PHWRs Pressurized Heavy- Water Reactor
PLA People’s Liberation Army
PLAAF People’s Liberation Army Air Force
PNEs Peaceful Nuclear Explosions
PPP Purchasing Power Parity
QDR Quadrennial Defense Review
RAW Research and Analysis Wing
RSS Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sang
SAC Strategic Air Command
SEATO Southeast Asian Treaty Organization
SIOP Single Integrated Operational Plan
SLBMs Submarine- Launched Ballistic Missile
SLCM Submarine- Launched Cruise Missile
SLOCs Sea Lines of Communications
SPD Strategic Plans Division
SRR Strategic Restraint Regime
viii Abbreviations
SSBNs Nuclear- Powered Ballistic Missile Submarines
TAC Amity and Cooperation
TFW Two- Front War
THAAD Terminal High Altitude Area Defense
TNW Tactical Nuclear Weapons
TPP Trans- Pacific Partnership
TTP Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan
UAVs Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
UNGA United Nations General Assembly
UNSC United Nations Security Council
Introduction
The fundamental rationale of this book is to investigate the prevailing security
environment in South Asia under the core principles of the security dilemma –
‘a situation in which one state’s efforts to increase its own security reduces the
security of others.’1 This study explains and analyzes the evolving dynamics of
nuclear deterrence underpinned by the introduction of new technologies and its
related challenges to peace and stability between India and Pakistan. More
broadly, this volume carefully conceptualizes how rapidly the South Asian
region is pulled by the competing strategies played out between the US and
China in the broader Asia-P acific region where India is considered the strategic
partner to the perceived US offshore- balancing/Pivot to Asia strategy and Paki-
stan is becoming one of the essential components of the evolving broader
Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). As India and Pakistan become part of
these broader competing strategies in Asia, this volume attempts to find out how
these rival states, wrought by an increasing vicious circle of security dilemma,
would fall in more strategic uncertainty and fear against each other thereby
facing more insecurity that in turn would push them toward the introduction of
advanced conventional technologies and modernized nuclear deterrent forces.
It is apparent that the contemporary evolving patterns of South Asian nuclear
deterrence are heading in the same direction. In doing so, the rapid introduction
of newer technologies by one state in terms of both conventional and nuclear
deterrent forces affects the strategic policies of another state that, in turn, gradu-
ally affect the broader strategic stability of Asia-P acific in general and the South
Asian region in particular. More importantly, this volume conceptualizes how
contemporary scholarship can best explain the evolving South Asian security
dilemma paradox from a broader perspective that is systemic in nature.
Centrally, this book presupposes that the evolving nature of deterrence
dynamics under the rubric of the security dilemma between India and Pakistan is
increasingly important to the world that justifies, and aspires for, the timely pro-
duction of this volume. South Asia is an extremely important case with reference
to new technologies in terms of deterrent forces and shifting doctrinal postures,
states’ realignment with external leading powers, their outstanding territorial dis-
putes, cross- border terrorism, and high probability of war, particularly when the
inter- state rivalry between India and Pakistan continues to persist despite the