Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts PDF
Preview Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts
NEXT EGNERATEIA'TORHN I ,SYSTPEREMD CITIOI STRATFEOGSRIU EBSS E1NAALST1 0O SEA1NSA0FLO RECASTS Tlr� NAarnldiraomnfi11 t-I'S SCIENECNEGSI·RN lENE•MG I EDJC�NE Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts NEXT GENERATION EARTH SYSTEM PREDICTION STRATEGIES FOR SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL FORECASTS Committee on Developing a U.S. Research Agenda to Advance Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasting Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Ocean Studies Board Division on Earth and Life Studies Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS • 500 Fifth Street, NW • Washington, DC 20001 This study was supported by the Heising Simons Foundation under contract number 2014-72, the Office of Naval Research under contract number N00014-14-1-0194, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under contract number NNX08AB07G, with additional support from the National Academy of Sciences’ Arthur L. Day Fund. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or agency that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-38880-1 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-38880-5 Digital Object Identifier: 10.17226/21873 Additional copies of this report are available for sale from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, NW, Keck 360, Washington, DC 20001; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313; http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2016 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Suggested citation: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2016. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/21873. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts The National Academy of Sciences was established in 1863 by an Act of Congress, signed by President Lincoln, as a private, nongovernmental institution to advise the nation on issues related to science and technology. Members are elected by their peers for outstanding contributions to research. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964 under the char- ter of the National Academy of Sciences to bring the practices of engineering to advising the nation. Members are elected by their peers for extraordinary contributions to engineering. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president. The National Academy of Medicine (formerly the Institute of Medicine) was established in 1970 under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences to advise the nation on medical and health issues. Members are elected by their peers for distinguished contributions to medicine and health. Dr. Victor J. Dzau is president. The three Academies work together as the National Academies of Sciences, Engi neering, and Medicine to provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation and conduct other activities to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions. The Academies also encourage education and research, recognize outstanding contributions to knowledge, and increase public under- standing in matters of science, engineering, and medicine. Learn more about the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medi- cine at www.nationalacademies.org. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts COMMITTEE ON DEVELOPING A U.S. RESEARCH AGENDA TO ADVANCE SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL FORECASTING RAYMOND J. BAN (Chair), Ban and Associates, LLC, Marietta, GA CECILIA M. BITZ, University of Washington, Seattle ANDY BROWN, UK Met Office, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, UK ERIC CHASSIGNET, Florida State University, Tallahassee JOHN A. DUTTON, Prescient Weather Ltd., State College, PA ROBERT HALLBERG, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ ANKE KAMRATH, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO DARYL KLEIST, University of Maryland, College Park PIERRE F.J. LERMUSIAUX, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge HAI LIN, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, Quebec LAURA MYERS, University of Alabama, Tuscaloosa JULIE PULLEN, Stevens Institute of Technology, Hoboken, NJ SCOTT SANDGATHE, University of Washington, Seattle MARK SHAFER, University of Oklahoma, Norman DUANE WALISER, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA CHIDONG ZHANG, University of Miami, FL National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer CLAUDIA MENGELT, Senior Program Officer ALISON MACALADY, Associate Program Officer SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate v Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE A.R. RAVISHANKARA (Chair), Colorado State University, Fort Collins GERALD A. MEEHL (Vice Chair), National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO LANCE F. BOSART, University at Albany-SUNY, NY MARK A. CANE, Columbia University, Palisades, NY SHUYI S. CHEN, University of Miami, FL HEIDI CULLEN, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ PAMELA EMCH, Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems, Redondo Beach, CA ARLENE FIORE, Columbia University, Palisades, NY WILLIAM B. GAIL, Global Weather Corporation, Boulder, CO LISA GODDARD, Columbia University, Palisades, New York MAURA HAGAN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO TERRI S. HOGUE, Colorado School of Mines, Golden ANTHONY JANETOS, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD EVERETTE JOSEPH, University at Albany-SUNY, NY RONALD “NICK” KEENER, JR., Duke Energy Corporation, Charlotte, NC JOHN R. NORDGREN, The Climate Resilience Fund, Bainbridge Island, WA JONATHAN OVERPECK, University of Arizona, Tucson ARISTIDES A.N. PATRINOS, New York University, Brooklyn S.T. RAO, North Carolina State University, Raleigh DAVID A. ROBINSON, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Piscataway CLAUDIA TEBALDI, Climate Central, Princeton, NJ Ocean Studies Board Liaison DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA Polar Research Board Liaison JENNIFER FRANCIS, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, Marion, MA National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff AMANDA STAUDT, Director EDWARD DUNLEA, Senior Program Officer LAURIE GELLER, Program Director KATHERINE THOMAS, Program Officer LAUREN EVERETT, Program Officer vi Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts ALISON MACALADY, Associate Program Officer AMANDA PURCELL, Associate Program Officer ALEX MORGAN, Christine Mirzayan Fellow RITA GASKINS, Administrative Coordinator ROB GREENWAY, Program Associate SHELLY FREELAND, Financial Associate MICHAEL HUDSON, Senior Program Assistant ERIN MARKOVICH, Program Assistant vii Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts OCEAN STUDIES BOARD LARRY A. MAYER (Chair), University of New Hampshire, Durham E. VIRGINIA ARMBRUST, University of Washington, Seattle KEVIN R. ARRIGO, Stanford University, CA CLAUDIA BENITEZ-NELSON, University of South Carolina, Columbia RITA R. COLWELL, University of Maryland, College Park SARAH W. COOKSEY, State of Delaware, Dover CORTIS K. COOPER, Chevron Corporation, San Ramon, CA JAMES A. ESTES, University of California, Santa Cruz DAVID HALPERN, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA PATRICK HEIMBACH, University of Texas, Austin SUSAN E. HUMPHRIS, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA BONNIE J. MCCAY, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ S. BRADLEY MORAN, University of Alaska, Fairbanks STEVEN A. MURAWSKI, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg JOHN A. ORCUTT, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA H. TUBA ÖZKAN-HALLER, Oregon State University, Corvallis MARTIN D. SMITH, Duke University, Durham, NC MARGARET SPRING, Monterey Bay Aquarium, Monterey, CA DON WALSH, International Maritime Incorporated, Myrtle Point, OR DOUGLAS WARTZOK, Florida International University, Miami LISA D. WHITE, University of California, Berkeley and San Francisco State University ROBERT S. WINOKUR, Michigan Tech Research Institute, Silver Spring, MD National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Staff SUSAN ROBERTS, Director CLAUDIA MENGELT, Senior Program Officer STACEE KARRAS, Associate Program Officer PAMELA LEWIS, Administrative Coordinator PAYTON KULINA, Senior Program Assistant SHUBHA BANSKOTA, Financial Associate HEATHER COLEMAN, Postdoctoral Fellow viii Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Next Generation Earth System Prediction: Strategies for Subseasonal to Seasonal Forecasts Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its pub- lished report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report: Gianpaolo Balsamo, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, UK Julie Demuth, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO Gregg A. Jacobs, Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS James L. Kinter III, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA Randal Koster, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, MD Douglas C. Marble, Metron Scientific Solutions, Inc., Reston, VA Nadia Pinardi, University of Bologna, Italy James G. Richman, Naval Research Laboratory, Corvallis, OR 97330 Andrew Robertson, Columbia University, Palisades, NY Frederic Vitart, European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, UK John Wallace, University of Washington, Seattle Robert Weller, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the report’s conclusions or recommenda- tions, nor did they see the final draft of the report before the release. The review of this report was overseen by Robert E. Dickinson, University of Texas at Austin, and Marc Levy, Center for International Earth Sciences Information Network, Columbia Univer- sity; they were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of this report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. The committee would also like to thank numerous members of the community who provided input to the committee throughout the study process, including Robert Bertram, Julie Demuth, Lisa Dilling, Stephen Eckermann, Gina Eosco, Fern Gibbons, Sara ix Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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