New Horizons in Modeling and Simulation for Social Epidemiology and Public Health

187 Pages·2021·2.382 MB·English

by  Daniel Kim

New Horizons in Modeling and Simulation
for Social Epidemiology and Public Health
Wiley Series in
Modeling and Simulation
A complete list of the titles in this series appears at the end of this volume.
New Horizons in Modeling and Simulation
for Social Epidemiology and Public Health
Daniel Kim
This edition first published 2021
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Kim, Daniel (author).
Title: New horizons in modeling and simulation for social epidemiology and public health /
Daniel Kim.
Other titles: Wiley series in modeling and simulation.
Description: Hoboken, NJ : Wiley, 2021. | Series: Wiley series in modeling
and simulation | Includes bibliographical references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2020027470 (print) | LCCN 2020027471 (ebook) | ISBN
9781118589304 (hardback) | ISBN 9781118589427 (Adobe PDF) | ISBN
9781118589571 (epub)
Subjects: MESH: Social Determinants of Health | Public Health |
Epidemiologic Methods | Models, Theoretical | Computer Simulation |
Social Medicine
Classification: LCC RA418 (print) | LCC RA418 (ebook) | NLM WA 30 | DDC
362.1–dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020027470
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020027471
Cover Design: Wiley
Cover Images: © vectorfusionart / Shutterstock
Set in 9.5/12.5pt STIXTwoText by SPi Global, Pondicherry, India
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
v
Contents
List of Contributors vii
Foreword ix
Acknowledgements xiii
List of Figures xv
List of Tables xvii
Part I Introduction 1
1 A Primer on the Social Determinants of Health 3
Daniel Kim
2 Rationale for New Modeling and Simulation Tools:
Agent-Based Modeling and Microsimulation 21
Daniel Kim and Ross A. Hammond
Part II Agent-Based Modeling 31
3 Overview of Current Concepts and Process for Agent-Based Modeling 33
Ross A. Hammond
4 Agent-Based Modeling in the Social Sciences 45
Joseph T. Ornstein and Ross A. Hammond
5 Agent-Based Modeling in Public Health 67
Joseph T. Ornstein and Ross A. Hammond
6 Section Summary 79
Ross A. Hammond
vi Contents
Part III Microsimulation Modeling 87
7 Concepts and Methods for Microsimulation Modeling
in the Social Sciences 89
Gerlinde Verbist and Hilde Philips
8 Empirical Evidence Using Microsimulation Models
in the Social Sciences 107
Francesco Figari and Emanuela Lezzi
9 Applications of Microsimulation Models to the Social
Determinants of Health and Public Health:
A Systematic Review of the Literature 149
Daniel Kim
10 Section Summary 165
Daniel Kim
Part IV Conclusions 171
11 Future Directions 173
Daniel Kim and Ross A. Hammond
Index 179
vii
List of Contributors
Francesco Figari Emanuela Lezzi
Department of Economics Department of Economics
University of Insubria University of Insubria
Varese Varese
Italy Italy
Ross A. Hammond Joseph T. Ornstein
Center on Social Dynamics & Policy Brown School
The Brookings Institution Washington University in St. Louis
Washington, DC St. Louis, MO
USA; Brown School USA
Washington University in St. Louis
St. Louis, MO Hilde Philips
USA; and The Santa Fe Institute Centre for General Practice
Santa Fe, NM University of Antwerp
USA Antwerpen
Belgium
Daniel Kim
Bouvé College of Health Sciences Gerlinde Verbist
Northeastern University Centre for Social Policy
Boston, MA University of Antwerp
USA; and School of Public Policy and Antwerpen
Urban Affairs Belgium
Northeastern University
Boston, MA
USA
ix
F oreword
I am well acquainted with the author of this book New Horizons in Modeling and
Simulation for Social Epidemiology & Public Health, Dr. Daniel Kim, and the
book’s contributors including Dr. Ross Hammond. As the former director of the
Systems Science Program in the Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research
(OBSSR) of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), I have had a bird’s eye view
of this emerging area which I have written extensively about elsewhere (Mabry
and Kaplan, 2013; Mabry et al., 2008, 2013).
The NIH and OBSSR have supported a variety of educational opportunities in
systems science, such as the Symposia Series on Systems Science and Health
(2007; https://www.preventionresearch.org/conferences/training/2007-symposia-
series-on-systems-science-and-health/) and the week-long immersion course,
Institute on Systems Science and Health (ISSH), which ran annually from 2009 to
2012. More recently, the NIH has funded short courses such as Dynamic Systems
Science Modeling for Public Health (PIs: Bruch, Hammond, Osgood; healthmodeling.
org). However, one of the noteworthy gaps in the field is adequate instructional
material in book form devoted to systems science applications to public health.
In 2012, Drs. Kim and Hammond both participated (Dr. Kim as a trainee and
Dr. Hammond as the lead instructor) in the agent-based modeling (ABM) track of
the week-long ISSH training course, at Washington University in St. Louis, hosted
by Drs. Peter Hovmand and Doug Luke. As a cofounder and producer of ISSH
(with Dr. Bobby Milstein, then at Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
[CDC]), I had the privilege to witness the germ of this book. Dr. Kim has taken the
best he has to offer in the social determinants of health and microsimulation mod-
eling, complemented it with the expertise of Dr. Hammond in ABM and of other
excellent book contributors with command of their subject areas, and produced
what is destined to become a key resource for public health students, professors, and
practitioners. New Horizons in Modeling and Simulation for Social Epidemiology
& Public Health, with its focus on agent-based modeling, microsimulation, and
social determinants of health, is the perfect complement to the recent entrants in
x ­ForeFor
this area (El-Sayed and Galea, 2017; Kaplan et al., 2017) as well as Dr. Thomas
Valente’s (2010) impactful Social Networks and Health.
As indicated by its title, New Horizons in Modeling and Simulation for Social
Epidemiology & Public Health is designed to give graduate students in public
health an introduction to modeling and simulation to address research questions
in social epidemiology and public health. While this is an excellent resource for
this audience, it is sure to become a staple on the bookshelf of not only students
but professors in public health and many other health-relevant disciplines. The
book provides an excellent introduction to social epidemiology followed by classic
case examples in ABM (Schelling model and study of the historic Anasazi popula-
tion; also within the book’s covers the reader will find essential background on
ABM use in public health including an overview of ABM for infectious disease
modeling, obesity, and tobacco control) and highlights some of the seminal con-
tributions Dr. Hammond has made to the field. The book contains a comprehen-
sive introduction to microsimulation including how to make informed choices
regarding time and space, data, policy rules and scope, population structure, vali-
dation, and more. An application section illustrates microsimulation models used
in population health. A chapter is devoted to educating the reader about various
microsimulation models in the social sciences (economics, demography, geogra-
phy, transportation, and environmental sciences). The book never loses its focus
on the social determinants of health, and there are valuable chapters devoted to
reviewing the literature on microsimulation models and social determinants of
health including important recent contributions by Dr. Kim (Chapter 9), as well
as the potential of microsimulation to explore other questions in this vein
(Chapter 10). Finally, the book lays out a conceptual model and empirical exam-
ples of how ABM and microsimulation can be integrated for additional impact.
With so much information packed into this readable book, it will quickly
become a go-to reference and primer of choice for anyone interested in modeling
for public health and/or interested in studying the social determinants of health.
Patricia L. Mabry, PhD
Research Investigator
HealthPartners Institute
Former Senior Advisor and Acting Deputy Director, National Institutes of
Health (NIH) Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research (OBSSR)
R eferences
El-Sayed, A.M. and Galea, S. (eds.) (2017). Systems Science and Population Health.
Oxford University Press.
­ForeFor xi
Kaplan, G.A., Diez Roux, A.V., and Simon, C.P. (eds.) (2017). Growing Inequality:
Bridging Complex Systems, Population Health, and Health Disparities. Washington,
D.C.: Westphalia Press.
Mabry, P.L. and Kaplan, R.M. (2013). Systems science: a good investment for the
public’s health. Health Education and Behavior 40 (1 suppl): S9–S12.
Mabry, P.L., Milstein, B., Abraido-Lanza, A.F. et al. (2013). Opening a window on
systems science research in health promotion and public health. Health Education
and Behavior 40 (1 suppl): 5S–8S.
Mabry, P.L., Olster, D.H., Morgan, G.D., and Abrams, D.B. (2008). Interdisciplinarity
and systems science to improve population health: a view from the NIH office of
behavioral and social sciences research. American Journal of Preventive Medicine
35 (2 suppl): S211–S224.
Valente, T.W. (2010). Social Networks and Health: Models, Methods, and Applications,
vol. 1. New York: Oxford University Press.