New aspects of mineral and water resources in The Netherlands

102 Pages·1973·6.05 MB·English

by  G. L. Krol (auth.), J. W. C. M. van der Sijp, H. Boissevain, A. A. Thiadens, E. Romijn (eds.)

NEW ASPECTS OF MINERAL AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE NETHERLANDS
Deel 29, 1973
Verhandelingen
van het
Koninklijk N ederlands geologisch
mijnbouwkundig
Genootschap
New aspects of mineral
and water resources
in The Netherlands
Editors: l.W.C.M. van der Sijp
H. Boissevain
A.A. Thiadens
E. Romijn
ISBN 978-94-017-7092-7 ISBN 978-94-017-7129-0 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-017-7129-0
CONTENTS
G.l. Krol:
Introduction 7
A. Hols:
The future energy supply in The Netherlands 9
W.F.M. Kimpe:
The geology of the Carboniferous in the coalfield Beatrix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 19
J.A.A. Ketelaar:
Salt. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 37
H.M. Harsveldt:
Middle Triassic limestone. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 43
W.M. Felder:
Kalkstenen van het Boven Krijt in Zuid Limburg. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 51
H.M. Harsveldt:
The discovery of uranium at Haamstede 63
O.S. Kuyl:
Pure Miocene quartz sands in southern Limburg 73
E.Oele:
The gravel and sand supply in The Netherlands. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 81
W.H. Zagwijn and H.M. Harsveldt:
Peat deposits and the active carbon industry' . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 85
G.W. Putto:
The law and management of ground-water resources. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 89
E. Romijn:
Ground-water resources in The Netherlands. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 91
J.B. Breeuwer and S. Jelgersma:
An E-W geohydrological section across The Netherlands ..................................... 105
INTRODUCTION
On the occasion of the sixtieth anniversary of our Society the General Assembly held
in The Hague on March 18th 1972 was combined with a symposium entitled:
"Enkele nieuwe aspecten van delfstoffen in Nederland."
The programme was as follows:
Mr. G.W. Putto
"Grondwater als grondstof van de drinkwatervoorziening"
Prof.Dr. J.A.A. Ketelaar
"Zoutgebruik, nu en in de toekomst"
Dr. E. Oele
"Voorkomen en toekomst van de winning van industriezand en -grind"
Ir. A. Hols
"De toekomstige energievoorziening in Nederland".
Moreover it was decided to devote to this subject an issue of our proceedings in which
the contributions to this symposium should be published with the addition of other
topical papers.
I am happy to notice that so many authors have responded to our request so that
indeed the latest data in so many fields have been collected in this proceeding.
I like to express my gratitude to the "Commissie van de Europese Gemeenschap",
"Shell Nederland B.V." and "Nederlandse Staatsmijnen DSM" for their financial support
to this issue.
A vote of thanks is due to the authors and to the members of the editorial committee
who have devoted so much of their time and effort to this Anniversary Volume.
G.L. Krol
VERHANDELINGEN KON. NED. GEOL. MIJNBOUWK. GEN. VOLUME 29, p. 9-18, 1973
THE FUTURE ENERGY SUPPLIES TO THE NETHERLANDS
A. HOLS I )
SUMMARY control of gas prices (while not controlling prices of
alternative fuels)
The future satisfaction of mankInd's Increasing energy demands IS
legislation on fuel qualities for environmental reasons
a popular subject of discuSSIOns in the press, academic cucles and
tough health regulations in coal mines
government agencIes. The much publiCIzed energy gap foreseen in the
environmental objections to development of alternatives
United States has led to a multItude of studies being undertaken:
Japan IS worrying about their future energy sources and Western to conventional coal and hydrocarbon resources, such as
Europe is becoming aware of the fact that the era of abundant and oil shales, offshore crudes and surface-mined coal.
cheap energy may be a thing of the past.
SInce World War II, the Netherlands have seen the rapid transItIOn
Europe's present prosperity is mainly energy-based; the
from a coal-based economy, through an OIl-based energy balance, to
Europeans are becoming used to a limitless supply of cheap
the era of natural gas. The resulting wide-spread and significant
upheavals of a SOCIal and economIC nature are wel1 known. We, Western energy to fuel the industries and to cater to their comforts.
Europeans, realize that the world's Inventory of fossil fuels IS cer-
However, there are voices in Europe that do not see or do
taInly not unlimited and that we will be very dependent for our
not want to see that Europe's dependence on imported fuels
Pnmary energy requirements on MIddle Eastern and North Afncan.
should be taken seriously. Fiction is spread around that
hydrocarbon resources for quite a whIle yet.
European gas, gas imported overland from Russia or by
An attempt to forecast the satIsfaction of the energy demands of
the Netherlands and the role hydrocarbon resources from European tanker as LNG, and North Sea oil as well as accelerated
origIn may play In the energy package, is the subject of this paper. nuclear developments will take care of Western Europe's
problems comfortably.
This paper intends to discuss and rationalize the hydro-
INTRODUCTION carbon components of the various energy factors, to get
some insight in Western Europe's and the Netherlands' future
The subject of this paper concerns the world's and there- energy picture.
fore our future energy supplies, a problem which is becoming The basic information presented can be found in litera-
increasingly topical, in view of the rapidly increasing con- ture; a list of consulted publications and studies follows the
sumption of energy2 in the developed countries and the paper. The author will De the first to admit that the basic
political and economic effects of the predominant position information is highly debatable and mostly out of date
of the big exporting countries. already; we are dealing with a dynamic subject, of a continu-
One of the more popular topics in the USA today is the ously changing picture. The paper covers in principle the
"energy gap". We must realize, however, that this domestic
next 15 years, although some projections to the year 2000
problem is largely of their own making, mainly as a result of
are presented. Forecasting is a difficult thing and one can
the following actions which tend to discourage rather than
only derive some sensible figures for the next 15 years in the
encourage the hydrocarbon industry:
context of the subsequent period about which, of course,
- control of oil imports
one knows even less. In forecasting the picture of the next 15
years we can use the experience of the 1960's and although
we all know that history never repeats itself, one can learn
from the way in which demand and supply for energy deve-
I) Shell InternatIOnale Petroleum MaatschapPIj B.V., Carel van
loped in the recent past. Although it is the intention to focus
Bylandtlaan 30, The Hague, The Netherlands
on our domestic problems, pictures of the world as a whole
2) In this paper the term "energy" Includes both electncIty and fuels,
not just "energy" generated as electricity, a term which is common have to be studied before dealing with Western Europe. In
use In Western Europe. the paper the "world" will be limited to the "world outside
10 A. HOLS
the Communist areas", not only because we know very little TABLE I
about what is going on inside the Communist world, but also TYPical Growth Rates.
because it can be argued that they will not have much per cent per year
influence on the energy balance of the so-called "Free
Est.
World". 1940/50 50/60 60170 70/80
Free world energy 5 5
Free world 011 7-8
UNITS
Western Europe populatIon <1
All volumes and rates have been expressed as much as Western Europe GNP 4.8
possible in term of barrels of oil equivalent and days. The Western Europe electroclty 8
"barrel of oil" and "barrels per day" are the most frequently Western Europe energy 4.3
used units in the international oil business, although not
popular in Europe, where tons of oil per year or tons of coal Netherlands energy 4 8 6-7
equivalent per year are in vogue. Furthermore, for oil a billion Netherlands electro CIty 1 7%
means 109 in the American way, but when talking about gas Netherlands home electro CIty 1 capita 8)1,
the European denomination of 109 , a milliard, has been
used. WORLD OIL DEMAND
MBOE/Q
60
GROWTH
50
Especially in the Netherlands, the problem of growth is a
popular subject of debate. By April 1972 the Club of Rome 40 5\1, % AAI
Report had sold more copies in Holland than in the rest of
the world combined. Some historical growth rates of energy
30
demand in the world outside the Communist areas are shown
.~:62 ESTIMATE
on table 1. Free World energy consumption grew by 2~% per LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION
annum in the immediate post-war era, 3~% in the 1950's and 20
5% per annum in the 1960's. This is called exponential
growth, a certain percentage per year. Extrapolation of 10
exponential growth into the future, not only for energy
consumption but also for such items as population and O19+60- -------1-96r5 --------19,70- -------19-7r5 ------~1~98 0
pollution, has led to the concerns of, for instance, the Club
of Rome and serious implications are predicted if all growth
Fig. I
were to continue to increase exponentially. As no kind of Exponential Growth Rate.
growth can continue indefinitely, certain parameters
influencing world energy demand can be expected to change TABLE 2
in the long term future. This is, of course, subject to exten- Oil Resource Requirements.
sive speculation and discussion, but as long as one can see no
all data in billion barrels
real reason to doubt exponential growth in energy consump-
tion in the near future, the following forecasts are based on Oil consumed Reserves reqUIred year end
this assumption. Just what exponential growth means is well 5 year Cumulative (Cumulative produclJon on
illustrated on fig. 1. The lower curve represents a linear penod from 1.1.71 1. 1. 71: 220 bilhon bbls)
extrapolation of the world oil growth curve from the per-
1971- 75 80 80 1975 25 yrs 475
spective of 1962, before continued exponential growth was
recognized. Comparison with what actually happened gives 1976- 80 107 187 1980 20 yrs 475
us an idea of what exponential growth means in realistic 1981· 85 133 320 1985 16 yrs 475
terms. 1986- 90 165 485 1990 15 yrs 550
Why is the consumption of energy growing as fast as it 1991- 95 205 690 1995 15 yrs 675
does? The main uses of energy are: 1996-2000 255 945 2000 15 yrs 835
household (comfort) Reserves to be proven br 2000
industry 945 + 835 = 1780
transport (air, ground, sea) Proven Reserves 1.1.71 550
In the above, the use of electricity is the fastest growing_ To be added 1230
Growth in energy consumption is mainly due to: or 41 billion bbIsIyr
THE FUTURE ENERGY SUPPLIES TO THE NETHERLANDS 11
increased industrial activity ENERGY PER CAPITA (MILLIONS OF BTU)
200
affluent societies in the developed countries (comfort,
sophistication)
USA.
increasing leisure time (boating, travelling)
diminishing increases in efficiency in the use of resources
150
anti-pollution measures
low cost prevailing so far. CANAOA •
• UNITED KINGDOM
However, forecast on the basis of rapid growth may be
100
too optimistic on account of:
ecological awareness • GERMANY
sustained economic recession USSR.
- rapidly increasing prices of resources • FRANCE
actions on production rates by the major exporting coun-
tries • JAPAN
• SPAIN
breakthroughs of more efficient uses of energy
• BRAZIL
• INDIA
o
o 1000 2000 3000
FORECASTING GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT PER CAPITA (DOLlARS)
Fig. 2
How are demand forecasts arrived at? In fig. 2 the rela-
Energy Use vs. Gross NatIOnal Product.
tionship between energy consumption and gross national
product of several nations is shown. One could say that a
trend exists which is preferably used to forecast energy
WORLD ENERGY BALANCE
demand from predictions of gross national product, assuming
EXCLUDING COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
that the GNP can be reliably predicted. One demand fore-
MBOE/D
cast, as for instance world energy demand (fig. 3) was put 140
NUCLEAR
together on this basis. The next problem concerns the supply HYDROPOWER
120
to meet this energy demand, and the role by future require-
NAT GAS
ments for hydrocarbons. Energy demand is met by the fol-
tOO
lowing principal resources: oil, coal, natural gas, hydro- and
nuclear electricity expressed in this paper in terms of the 80
common denominator of millions of barrels of oil equivalent
60 OIL
per day. By assessing as well as possible the future availability
of hydro power (which is simple), nuclear electricity (which
40
is mainly constrained by industrial capacity, costs and know-
how) and solid fuels (mainly constrained by competition of
20
hydrocarbons) the remaining gap must be filled by hydro- COAL
carbons. As a result one sees that of the total 1970 energy 0
'950 '55 '60
demand of the world outside the Communist areas of 66
mbdoe* oil supplied 35 mbdoe; for 1980 these figures are
Fig. 3
110 mbdoe energy and 65 million barrels of oil fuels, in 1985 World Energy Balance 1950-1985.
140 mbdoe and 80 mbd of oil fuels respectively. Comparable
figures for Western Europe will be discussed later, but first
the resource bases from which the world must draw its
is subject to high processing and transportation costs in order
supplies will be investigated. In this paper only crude oil
to bring it to the major consuming centres. Since gas
resources will be dealt with for the following reasons.
occupies a greater volume than oil for the same heat content,
Although natural gas plays an important role in the world
a gas pipeline can transport only 20 to 30% of the useful
energy picture, it has been, and in the future will be, only a
energy carried by a crude oil pipeline of equal size, while the
fraction of no more than, 20 to 25% of the oil supply and
cost of an LNG tanker per unit of energy shipped may be
demand. Natural gas is amply available world-wide but at four times that of an equivalent crude·carrier. These are
present only a relatively small fraction is of economic value, formidable obstacles since it is self-evident that the further
although it generally is very profitable when found close to one wishes to move gas, the more severe the cost disadvan-
major consumption centres. Relative to crude oil, natural gas tage becomes. As it is the competition between alternative
energy sources at the customers' end that will decide which
fuel will prevail, transportation costs play a very significant
*) mbdoe = million barrels per day of 011 eqUIvalent. role.
12 A. HOLS
RESOURCE BASE ASSUMED TREND OF FUTURE INDUSTRY RIp RATIO FOR OIL
FREE WORLD
Because one can only study the period to 1985 in the
context of a longer period in time, the requirements and 70~----~----r-----.-----.-----r---~
reserve position up to the year 2000 will also be discussed.
Extrapolating the world oil demand (fig. 3) to the year 2000,
table 2 was prepared on which, for different points in time, 50
oil resources required to satisfy demand and the reserves
needed in order to guarantee future requirements are shown. ~ 40
Q
A parameter essential for this type of forecast is the often
~ 30
quoted reserve over production ratio. The conventional way ..
i<
of quoting this ratio is the number of years that production 20 -
could be continued at the existing rate from the proven
resources. Good oil-field practice requires this to be not less 10
than, say, between 10 years in highly developed areas and 15
0
years in less developed areas . Reserve over production ratio t955 1960
quotes can be misleading if not properly understood. In Fig. 4
times of exponential growth in demand, the number of years Oil Reserve/Production Ratio Trend.
of actual production remaining are much less than the years
quoted at "current" production rate. This is very significant
as it shows the influence on a forecast of exponential terms. USA
CUMULATIVE RECOVERY EFFICIENCY
In fig. 4 the "proven" oil reserves over current production
ratio, in years, for the Free World for the last 15 years is
shown. It was very high, from 55-65, before it started to
decline to the 35 years of today. However, in terms of years
of forecast production this ratio drops to 20 years. Evidently
the world is demanding oil at a rate which growths faster than
at which it is finding new resources. Assuming that the reserve
over production ratio is to continue to decline and to level
off at about 15 years by 1985, one arrives at the right hand
side of table 2. If the world is to maintain a reserve over
production ratio of 15 years until the end of the century, Fig. 5
Trend Recovery Efficiency USA.
more than 40 billion barrels of oil will have to be discovered
every year in order to satisfy demand and to maintain
sufficient reserves. According to recent studies of the U.S.
National Petroleum Council the average finding rate of the WORLD LIQUID HYDROCARBON REQUIREMENTS
AND RESOURCES
Free World has been 15 billion barrels during the last 15 All data In Billions of Barrels 011 Equivalent
years. On the other hand, world reserves are also being
boosted by increased recovery efficiency from known oil ca COAL*
4000 [[l]]]]J OIL S""LES
wells (fig. 5). The combination of discovery rate and the CJ TAR SANOS
~ OEEPSEA
possibility to obtain more oil from sources already proven I:::l ExPECT. CONVENTIONAL SOIJRCES
has resulted in additions to the Free World's oil resources of _ PROVEN RESERVES
about 30 billion barrels per year during the last 15 years 3000 * COOF ALLIQ FUOIRO CfUOENLVSE RfSOIORN P OWR EDRIR GEECNTE ;RREAPTLtO.AHC EMENT
according to the U.S. National Petroleum Council.
The data from table 2, i.e. the oil requirements of the o RESERVE RATIO REOUIREMENTS
Free World and the reserves needed at the end of each 2000 \-=< CUMULATIVE OIL CONSUMEO
period, are presented in a graphical form in fig. 6. By the
year 2000 some 1200 billion barrels of oil would have to be
added to today's 533 billion barrels of proven oil (as quoted
1000
by the Oil and Gas Journal). Proven oil, as discussed so far, is
the amount, with some variations of course, that industry
believes will certainly be produced in terms of today's econ-
omics. Moreover, one must of course think in terms of o
expectations of oil still to be discovered or recovered
additionally from already proven accumulations. Many
Fig. 6
experts have looked at this problem and many different Free World LiqUid Hydrocarbon Requirements and Resources.