National Research Council. The New Global Ecosystem in Advanced Computing: Implications for U.S. Competitiveness and National Security

117 Pages·7.054 MB·English

The New Global Ecosystem in Advanced Computing: Implications for U.S. Competitiveness and National Security

Committee on Global Approaches to Advanced Computing
Board on Global Science and Technology
Policy and Global Affairs Division

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.

Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The New Global Ecosystem in Advanced Computing: Implications for U.S. Competitiveness and National Security
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing
Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of
the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the
Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were
chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by Contract No. HHM402-10-D-0036 between the National
Academy of Sciences and the Department of Defense. Any opinions, findings,
conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors
and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided
support for the project.

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International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-26235-6

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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The New Global Ecosystem in Advanced Computing: Implications for U.S. Competitiveness and National Security

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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The New Global Ecosystem in Advanced Computing: Implications for U.S. Competitiveness and National Security

Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The New Global Ecosystem in Advanced Computing: Implications for U.S. Competitiveness and National Security
COMMITTEE ON GLOBAL APPROACHES TO ADVANCED COMPUTING

DANIEL A. REED, Chair, University of Iowa
CONG CAO, University of Nottingham
TAI MING CHEUNG, University of California, San Diego
JOHN CRAWFORD, Intel Corporation
DIETER ERNST, East-West Center
MARK D. HILL, University of Wisconsin–Madison
STEPHEN W. KECKLER, NVIDIA (on sabbatical from the University of Texas at Austin)
DAVID LIDDLE, U.S. Venture Partners
KATHRYN S. MCKINLEY, Microsoft Corporation (on sabbatical from the University of Texas at Austin)

PRINCIPAL PROJECT STAFF

WILLIAM O. BERRY, Study Director, Board on Global Science and Technology
ETHAN N. CHIANG, Program Officer, Board on Global Science and Technology
LYNETTE I. MILLETT, Associate Director, Computer Science and Telecommunications Board

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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The New Global Ecosystem in Advanced Computing: Implications for U.S. Competitiveness and National Security
BOARD ON GLOBAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

RUTH DAVID, Chair, Analytic Services, Inc.
HAMIDEH AFSARMANESH, University of Amsterdam
KATY BÖRNER, Indiana University Bloomington
JEFFREY BRADSHAW, Florida Institute for Human and Machine Cognition
DIANNE CHONG, The Boeing Company
JARED COHON, Carnegie Mellon University
ERIC HASELTINE, Haseltine Partners, LLC
JOHN HENNESSY, Stanford University
NAN JOKERST, Duke University
PETER KOLCHINSKY, RA Capital Management, LLC
CHEN-CHING LIU, Washington State University
KIN MUN LYE, Singapore’s Agency for Science, Technology and Research
BERNARD MEYERSON, IBM Corporation
KENNETH OYE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
NEELA PATEL, Abbott Laboratories
DANIEL REED, University of Iowa
DAVID REJESKI, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

STAFF

WILLIAM O. BERRY, Director
PATRICIA WRIGHTSON, Associate Director
ETHAN N. CHIANG, Program Officer
NEERAJ GORKHALY, Research Associate
PETER HUNSBERGER, Financial Officer

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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The New Global Ecosystem in Advanced Computing: Implications for U.S. Competitiveness and National Security

Preface

T
he information revolution of the last half-century has been driven by dramatic
improvements in computing technology—in particular by year-over-year exponential
growth in single-processor computing performance that translated into phenomenal
new technologies and indeed served as the foundation for entire new industries.
Improvements in hardware and associated software advances sustained this growth for
decades. In the last few years, those single-processor performance gains have slowed
dramatically due to fundamental physical and technical constraints related to power
dissipation.1 Moreover, there is substantial uncertainty as to which technological
breakthroughs, if any, may make it possible to continue this approach. This technology
disruption has implications not just for the information technology (IT) industry and sectors
that depend on it, but for U.S. competitiveness and national security.
The United States has traditionally been on the leading edge of research related to
general-purpose computing performance, demonstrated in part by its dominant position in
commodity microprocessors for personal computers and servers. The United States has also
long been the leader in high-performance computing (HPC) systems, both in research and in
deployment. Finally, the United States has also been a leader in the development of graphics
processing units (GPUs) and other specialized processors.2 However, the shift to mobile-
based devices and the globalization of the international economy, of communications, and of
science and technology (S&T) threatens to erode U.S. technological leadership in these
critical areas.
The emergence of global competitors to the United States in advanced computing
underscores the need for U.S. policymakers to both understand the advancement of global
S&T related to advanced computing and to integrate this understanding with programmatic
S&T decision making. To understand these issues more fully, the Office of the Assistant

1National Research Council, 2011, The Future of Computing Performance: Game Over or Next Level?,
Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press (available online at www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id
=12980). “Before 2004, processor performance was growing by a factor of about 100 per decade; since 2004,
processor performance has been growing and is forecasted to grow by a factor of only about 2 per decade. An
expectation gap is apparent.”
2Although both HPC systems and specialized processors are key elements of U.S. competitiveness and na-
tional security, the committee’s guidance from the sponsor was to focus on the broader computing environ-
ment, not on high-end computing. The enabling technologies for these HPC systems are based on the same
single-processor, multicore and GPU technologies that are the basis for consumer commodity computing.
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The New Global Ecosystem in Advanced Computing: Implications for U.S. Competitiveness and National Security
Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering at the Department of Defense asked the
National Research Council (NRC) to assess the global S&T landscape for responding to the
challenge of improving computing performance in an era where parallel rather than sequential
computing is at the forefront.
The Committee on Global Approaches to Advanced Computing was appointed under the
auspices of the NRC’s Board on Global Science and Technology to conduct this exploration. The
nine members of the study committee represent academia and private industry and have expertise
in computer science, international S&T, technology assessment, and global innovation.
Biographical information for members of the committee is presented in Appendix A. Box P-1
contains committee’s statement of task. The committee held three meetings during the course of
its work (August, September, and October 2011).
To meet its charge, the committee took a two-part approach. First, it investigated worldwide
global research capabilities and commercial competitiveness related to advanced computing,3
beginning with technology context setting and definitions. As an additional data-gathering
experiment, the committee solicited insights from approximately one dozen leading computer
scientists and engineers to help identify potential “hubs” of science and technology, relevant to
the computing performance challenge (see Appendix B). The committee then examined different
innovation strategies, policy tools, and institutional arrangements in a variety of countries that
are potentially important players in the development of computing devices technologies and
products. Finally, the committee explored the implications of changes in the global advanced
computing landscape for U.S. national security.
The data analyses presented in this report are intended to be a starting point for further
exploration. The committee’s observations highlight important global trends with regard to
computing and potential implications for U.S. leadership and for U.S. defense and national
security. Rather than providing formal recommendations, this report offers an assessment of the
landscape based on the observations and insights of the study committee.
I would like to thank the members of the study committee for their efforts and contributions
in developing this report. I also thank the briefers who came and spoke to the committee and
provided crucial input and insights that helped to guide our thinking. (Briefers to the committee
are listed in Appendix C.) I also thank the reviewers (see Acknowledgment of Reviewers on page
xi).
Lastly, the support of the NRC staff was indispensible to accomplishing this study. Special
thanks go to Ethan Chiang, who worked closely with the committee throughout the study and
played a major role in the preparation of this report. Thanks also go to Lynette Millett for her
many valuable insights and contributions.

Daniel Reed,
Chair, Committee on Global Approaches to Advanced Computing

3By “advanced computing” the committee means any innovations in semiconductor technologies (includ-
ing fabrication, processing and manufacturing); computer architectures, computing hardware, algorithms and
programming approaches; and software developments that improve computing performance or provide new
or improved functionality.
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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
The New Global Ecosystem in Advanced Computing: Implications for U.S. Competitiveness and National Security

BOX P-1
Statement of Task
An ad hoc committee of the Board on Global Science and Technology (BGST) will
describe and assess the global S&T landscape for responding to the challenges of
sustaining historical trends in computing performance improvement in general and to
the challenge presented by the shift to multicore processors in particular. The
committee will identify cutting-edge approaches in computer hardware (e.g., multicore
architectures) and software (e.g., emerging parallel programming models) technologies to
meet this challenge. The committee will also identify hot spots of innovation around the
world and project areas of technological leadership in the United States and elsewhere.
Lastly, the committee will consider the implications of these global advances for the U.S.
S&T enterprise and for U.S. national security. Based on their work, the committee may
suggest criteria or methodologies to more effectively assess the global state of play in a
variety of emergent areas of S&T.

To accomplish this task, the committee should consider, but is not limited to, the
following questions:
1. What is the cutting edge of approaches for responding to the computing
performance challenge?
2. How do other nations and institutions view the computing performance
challenge, and what strategies do they have for responding to it?
3. Where are the innovation hot spots in efforts to advance computing performance
in the United States and overseas?
4. How are efforts to improve computing performance likely to advance (or stall)
over time? Can such efforts be regionally identified? If so, what are they?
5. What are U.S. strengths relative to other international technology leaders in
advanced computing performance currently and how might those strengths be
expected to change over time?
6. What are the implications of these global advances for U.S. national security in
the near and far terms? What are potential resulting IT capabilities and what
implications do these have for U.S. national security in the near and far terms?

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Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.