Monitoring of ACEA's commitment on CO2 Emission Reduction from Passenger Cars

118 Pages·2000·0.4 MB·English

Monitoring of ACEA’s commitment on CO Emission Reduction
2
from Passenger Cars (1995-1999)
Final version
10. 07. 2000
Joint Report
of the
European Automobile Manufacturers Association
and
the Commission Services
Annex1
Joint Monitoring by European Commission and ACEA of Environmental
Agreement on CO Emission Reduction from Passenger Cars
2
ES SUMMARYOFPROGRESS INDELIVERINGTHEAGREEMENT
E1 TrendsinspecificemissionsofCO (g/km) (averagedoverallnewlyregisteredpassengercarsforthe
2
EUandforMemberStates:1995-1999)
OnanEU-widebasis, ACEA'sCO emissionshavedecreasedsteadily, achievingintotalreductionsofmorethan6%
2
over the reporting period. From a new car average of 186 g/km in 1995, ACEA's CO emissions reduced to 174
2
g/kmin1999. Ineachyear since1995sizeablecutshavebeenachieved, culminatingina 2% reductionfrom1998 to
1999.
ACEACO figures byfuel-typeshow that, between 1995 and 1999, new gasoline-fuelled cars reduced average CO
2 2
emissions by 4.3%, and for diesels there was a reduction of 8.5%. This corresponds to respectively 180 g/km and
161 g/km in 1999. In 1998 and 1999, the market share of diesel cars showed some expansion, as technically-
advancednewdirect-injection(DI)dieselscametomarket. Ashort-termincreaseinthemarket shareof dieselcars is
inlinewithexpectations.
In broad terms, this EU performance was replicated in all the Member States (See Annex). Also at Member State-
level, manymarketsshowedgreater interestindieselsasnewdirectinjectionmodelsbecameavailable(seeAnnex).
Gasoline
2003IndicativeTargetRange:
240 165g/km-170g/km Diesel
2008Target:140g/km
Total
220
m 200
k
g/
180
160
140
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Year
Figure1:EUTrendsofACEA'sfleetinspecificaverageemissionsofCO
2
E2 Trendsinspecificfuelconsumptionbyfueltype(l/100km) (averagedoverallnewlyregistered
passengercarsfortheEUandforMemberStates:1995-1999)
Between1995and1999, newgasoline-fuelledcarsanddieselscarshavereducedtheir averagefuelconsumption
from7.9l/100kmto7.5l/100kmand6.6l/100kmto6.0l/100km, respectively.
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Gasoline
12
Diesel
10 Total
8
m
k
0 6
0
1
L/
4
2
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Year
Figure2:TrendsofACEA'sFleetinspecificaveragefuelconsumptionbyfueltype
TrendsinspecificfuelconsumptionintheMember StatesarepresentedintheAnnex.
E3 Trendsinphysicalfleetcharacteristics(mass(kg), enginecapacity(cm3), enginepower(kW)) averaged
overallnewlyregisteredpassengercarsintheEU(Optional) (1995-1999)
Car physical characteristics have drifted upwards. Average engine capacity has remained nearly constant between
1995 and 1999 (+2.7%), whereas average car mass and engine power have increased by 8% and 12.7% over the
reporting period. Mass increases have resulted from a range of factors such as: car safety improvements; other
automotiveregulations;theincreaseddieselcar share;andcustomer-drivenvehicleutilityenhancement.
E4 TechnicaldevelopmentsintroducedtoreduceCO emissions(includingintroductionofnew
2
technologiese.g. directinjection, low(lessthan120g/km) emissioncars, andalternativeconcepts)
The efforts of ACEA manufacturers to reduce CO emissions are illustrated by: fuel consumption improvements
2
associatedwithtechnicaladvancesatnewmodelintroductions (bymorethan15% for individualmodels); thelaunch
ofdirectinjectionenginetechnologies;andtheir on-goingdevelopmentofalternative-fuelledvehicles.
E5 Briefoverallassessmentonprogressinrelationtothetarget
ACEA's member average specific emissions have decreased by 6% over the reporting period. To date, the main
technologicalachievementislinkedtotheintroductionof direct injectionenginecars ontotheEUmarket since1998,
including Diesel Direct Injection (1998) and Gasoline Direct Injection (1999) models. The market share of diesel
engines increased within the reporting period. ACEA members have launched some models emitting less than 120
g/km
ACEA's1995to1999CO performanceisconsistentwiththeachievementofthe2003indicativetargetrange165
2
g/km-170g/km.
Note: Thereference186g/kmin1995isbasedondataavailableatthetimeofthediscussionsfortheagreement;
furtherrefinementsbyAAAledtoaroundedfigureof185g/km.
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1. MONITORINGOFTECHNOLOGICALDEVELOPMENTS AFFECTINGTHEAGREEMENT
1.1. AgreementInitiatives(optional)
1.1.1R&D
In view of the long-term dimension of climate change, the development of new breakthrough technologies will be
essential. In support of this effort the industry (ACEA/EUCAR/CLEPA) launched, in 1998, a joint CO R&D
2
Programme, to identify, develop and demonstrate new technologies and system concepts enabling reduction of CO
2
emissions from vehicles. With wide participation from across the sector’s research base (car manufacturers,
suppliers, research establishments, and universities), project proposals were specified in each of the Programmes
main areas of R&D (Powertrain, Materials and Manufacturing, Systems Efficiency, Mobility, System Assessment
andDemonstrators).
ThedurationoftheProgrammeisfromlater 1998until2004. Itsexpectedoverallbudgetisoftheorder 300MEuro.
In1999morethan30CO researchproject proposals, witha totalbudget of morethan200 M Euro, weresubmitted
2
for funding to the First Call of the EU's Fifth Framework Programme (FP5), mainly under Key Action 3 of the
Growthprogramme. Of these15 were granted funding; they have a total project budget of about 80M Euro with an
EUfundingof30MEuro. ThegrantedprojectsmainlyfocusonthePowertrainandMaterialsresearcharea.
Sections1.2and4.5alsocover ACEAtechnologicaldevelopmentsandresearchprogrammeactivities.
1.2. Technologicaldevelopments
1.2.1. Descriptionoftechnologicaldevelopmentsandtheir fuelefficiencycharacteristics(new
technologies, alternativeconcepts)
1.2.2. AvailabilityofNewTechnologiesintheEUandMember States
1.2.3. Availabilityofalternativeconceptspassenger carsintheEU(optional:inMember States)
1.2.4. Availabilityoflowemissionpassenger cars(e.g. emittinglessthan120g/km)intheEU(optional:in
Member States)
Europeancar manufacturers arecontinuingtogear researchandproduct andprocess development towards attaining
the140gCO /kmtargetby2008.
2
TheeffortsofACEAmanufacturerstoreduceCO emissions areillustratedbytheir newmodelintroductions, which
2
allowthelatest technicaladvances tobe brought to the market place. These new model and technology programmes
showsignificant improvements infuel consumption performance; typically fuel consumption reductions in excess of
15% are the norm (new models in 1998 compared to near equivalents in 1995; see Figure 3 below). It should be
notedthatadvancesofthismagnitudecanonlyoccur atthetimeofmajor productrenewal, notatmid-cycle.
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cle 9
y
c
w
8
e
n
;
m 1995
k 7
0 1998
0
1
l/ 6
n,
o
ti
p
m 5
u
s
n
o 4
C
A(g) B(g) C(g) D(d) E(d) F(d)
(g): gasoline versions;(d): diesel versions.
Source: "Automobile Revue, 1996, 1999; the 1995 figures have been raised by 9% to
reflect the cycle change.
Figure3:ImprovementinConsumptionPerformanceofNewModelsIntroductions
ACEA's Commitment states that European manufacturers have high expectations of certain technologies, in
particular those associated with Direct Injection gasoline and diesel engines. These are considered two of the most
promisingroutes toachievethecentralcommitment; assuming that their cost-effectiveness can be addressed, ACEA
willaimat a highshareof newcars beingequippedwiththese fuel-efficient technologies. Statistics available so far
donotallowtrendstobequantified.
During the 1995-1999 period, ACEA manufacturers were involved in the product development phase of Direct
Injection (DI) gasoline engine technology, and only one Gasoline Direct Injection model was actually launched into
the marketplace in 1999. In contrast, new Direct Injection diesel models were being launched by almost every
ACEA manufacturer, and came to market particularly in 1998 and 1999. According to ACEA these new DI diesels
had the drive-quality and performance of their gasoline alternatives, but with superior fuel consumption. These
differing rates of DI technological developments/market presence, with DI diesel currently ahead, account for the
recentincreaseindiesel'soverallmarketshare.
Over the 1995 -1999 period almost all ACEA member companies were involved in the on-going development,
promotion and launch of alternative-fuelled vehicles (AFVs). Available statistics only cover sales of "Other Fuel"
cars, however this category is thought likely to be made up virtually exclusively of AFVs. On this basis, AFV sales
byACEAmembers havegrownfromless than500 units in 1995, to over 13,000 units in 1999; even so, the market
shareof thesecars onlyamountedto0.1%. However thesestatistics understateAFVactivityintworespects; firstly,
to date most AFVs have been after-market fitments, and therefore not recorded under "Other Fuel"; and secondly
AFVsthataredual-fuelledgenerallygetrecordedunder gasolineor diesel.
EventhoughthevolumegrowthinAFVs is considered directionally significant, ACEA notes that technical progress
is hampered by widely diverging national policies, discouraging manufacturers from advancing more strongly into
AFVs, aswellasbyaninadequatefuellinginfrastructure.
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1.3. Descriptionofmarkettrendsinphysicalfleetcharacteristics (mass(kg), enginecapacity(cm3),
enginepower(kW) intheEUandMemberStates)
Car physical characteristics have drifted upwards. Engine capacity has remained virtually constant between 1995
and 1999 (+2.7%), whereas car mass and engine power have increased by 8% and 12.7% respectively. Over the
1995-1999 period, mass increases have resulted from a range of factors such as: car safety improvements; other
automotive regulations; the increased diesel share; and customer-driven vehicle utility enhancement. Safety
improvementshaveaffectedthewholecar structurefromthefloor-panupwards, andhavebeendrivenby:legislative
requirements (such as front and side-impact requirements); motorists’ association tests (like Euro NCAP); and
consumer wantsandexpectations, alongwithcompetitiveconsiderations.
However, the capacity and power of car engines varies considerably fromone EU country to another, reflecting the
differingeconomicandgeographicconditionsinthevariousmarkets(SeeAnnex).
2. STATISTICALMONITORING(1995-1999)
2.1. Listingofall(M1)newlyregisteredpassengercars(modellevel)intheEU
SeeTable4inAnnex1.
2.2. TrendsinspecificemissionsofCO (g/km)(averagedoverallnewlyregisteredpassengercarsbyfuel
2
typeintheEUandMemberStates)
As shown in Figure 1 (recall chapter E1) ACEA's average specific CO emissions have decreased from a new car
2
average of 186 g/km in 1995 to 174 g/km in 1999. In each year since 1995 sizeable reductions in average specific
emissions wereachieved. Intotalbetween1995 and1999 ACEA's averagespecific CO emissions werecut by more
2
than6%.
In broad terms, this EU performance was replicated in the Member States, with reductions in every country (see
Annex). ThevariationbetweenthehighestandlowestcountryinCO termshasnarrowedover theperiod.
2
New gasoline-fuelled cars showed an average CO emission reduction of 4.3%, and diesel cars a reduction of 8.5%
2
over the reporting period. This corresponds to respectively 180 g/kmand 161 g/km in 1999. In 1998 and 1999, the
marketshareofdieselcarsshowedsomeexpansion, astechnically-advancednewDIdieselmodelscametomarket.
This short-termdieselshareincreasewas widelyanticipated, as explainedin the Commission's 1998 Working Paper
(SEC (98) 1047) on the ACEA Agreement. In this document, a "short-term increase in diesel share" is
acknowledged, reflecting consumer benefits of the new generation, fuel-efficient Direct Injection diesels, currently
beingintroduced. However, a reversalofthismarkettrendisalsoanticipatedintheWorkingPaper.
1Table4presentsalistofM1vehiclescoveredbytheCommitmentpotentiallyregisteredasN1insomeMemberStates
('greyareas').
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2.3. Numberofnewlyregisteredpassengercars(byfueltypeintheEUandMemberStates)
EU total registrations of new passenger cars marketed by ACEA’s members have increased by 22% over the
monitoringperiod.
The number of gasoline passenger cars sold increased from 7,518,525 vehicles in 1995 to 8,241,064 vehicles in
1999 (+9%) and represents about 65.8% of total sales by ACEA members (against 73% in 1995). The number of
dieselpassenger cars soldincreasedfrom2,462,752 in1995 to3,886,904 in1999 (+57.8%), andrepresents 31% of
totalnewregistrations(seeFigure4)2.
The number of cars equipped with other fuel types have rapidly increased but remained relatively small in 1999
(13,013cars)
ACEA'smarketshareoftotalEUpassenger cars(gasoline+diesel)was88.4%in1995, and84.6%in1999.
NewregistrationsinMember StatesareshownintheAnnex.
Gasoline
14,000,000
Diesel
12,518,260
Total 11,935,533
12,000,000
11,226,009
10,811,011
10,241,651
10,000,000
soacrf 8,000,000 7,518,525 7,884,487 8,206,833 8,393,339 8,241,064
r
e
b
m 6,000,000
u
N
3,886,904
4,000,000
3,216,781
2,462,752 2,627,502 2,726,808
2,000,000
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Year
Figure4:Number ofNewlyRegisteredPassenger CarsbyACEA3
ACEA'sCO relatedfleetcompositionhas movedover thereportingperiodtowards morefuel-efficient vehicles. The
2
shareofcarsemittingmorethan180 g/kmhas decreasedby15 %, from46 % to32 %of thetotal. Theshareof cars
emittingbetween161g/kmand180g/kmhasdecreasedby6.6%from32.8%to26.2%. Theshareof cars inlower
categories 141-160 g/km, 121- 140 g/km and 101-120 g/km has increased by 15 %, 7 % and 0.7 % respectively.
Globallytheshareofthecarsemittinglessthan160g/kmhasincreasedby23%, from19%to42%(seeFigure5).
2Therestconsistsofstatisticallyunidentifiedvehiclesand'OtherFuels'.
3
'Otherfuel'notrepresented.
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ACEA’s FleetComposition ACEA’sFleet Composition
301-350g/km 301-350g/km
251-300g/km 251-300g/km
201-250g/km 201-250g/km
181-200g/km 181-200g/km
1995 161-180g/km 1999 161-180g/km
141-160g/km
141-160g/km
121-140g/km 121-140g/km
101-120g/km 101-120g/km
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%
Figure5:ACEA'sFleetCompositionper CO CategoryinSharesofTotal
2
2.4. EUtrendsinphysicalfleetcharacteristics(mass(kg), enginecapacity(cm3), enginepower(kW)) byfuel
typeaveragedoverallnewlyregisteredpassengercars;andrelationshiptoCO emissions)
2
Thereisanupwarddriftinphysicalcharacteristics’averagesatEUlevel(SeeFigure6).
Average total automobile mass was 1,101 kg in 1995 and increased by 8% over the reporting period (1,190 kg in
1999). Gasoline automobiles' average mass has increased by 6% from 1,068 kg to 1,133 kg in 1999 within the
reportingperiod. Dieselautomobiles'averagemasshasincreasedby8.8%withinthereportingperiod, from1,204 kg
in 1995 to of 1,310 kg in 1999. No data on average mass of 'Other Fuels' is available. The overall trend in average
massshowsanincreaseover the1995-1999period, bothfor gasolineanddieselcars.
Total engine capacity has increased by 2.7% within the monitoring period, from 1,654 cm3in 1995 to 1,699 cm3 in
1999. Gasolineenginecapacityhas increased by 0.95% over the reporting period, from1,564 cm3 in 1995 to 1,579
cm3in1999.Dieselenginecapacityhas increasedby1.2% over thereportingperiod, from1,928 cm3 in1995 cm3 to
1,952cm3in1999.
Total engine power has increased by 12.7% over the reporting period, from 63 kW in 1995 to 71 kW in 1999.
Gasoline engine power has increased by 9.2%, achieving 65 kW in 1995 and 71 kW in 1999. Diesel engine power
hassteadilyincreasedby16.7%,i.e.from60kWin1995to70kWin1999.
While the physical characteristics averages have increased over the period, average specific CO emissions dropped
2
by 6% over the reporting period (see Figure 6B). According to ACEA this indicates that technical improvements
compensated the trends in physical characteristics. In Figure 7 below the evolution of the ratios of average specific
CO emissionstomass, power andcylinder capacityisgiven, aspresentedbyACEA.
2
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Mass(Kg) Mass
2,000 Displ.Volume(cm3) 100 Relativeto1995 Power
Power(kW) 115% Capacity
1,800 90 CO2
1,600 80 110%
1,400 70 105%
1,200 60
100%
1,000 50W
k
800 40 95%
600 30
90%
400 20
85%
200 10
0 0 80%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Figures6:MarketTrendsinphysicalACEAfleet Figure6B:Trendsinphysicalfleetcharacteristicsand
characteristics specificCO emissions
2
Trendson1995-1999,CO2/Weight,Power,Eng.Capacity;1995=100
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
CO2/Weight CO2/Power CO2/CC
Figure7:TrendsinaveragespecificCO emissionsper kg, kWandcm3
2
2.5. TrendsinnewtechnologiesintheEUandMemberStatessupportedbydatawhenpossible(optional)
(e.g. % ornumberoftotal newlyregisteredpassengercarswhicharedirectinjection)
Almost every ACEA member has launched new Direct Injection (DI) diesel models on the EU market, and these
cametomarket particularlyin1998 and1999. Inadditionthefirst European Gasoline Direct Injection (GDI) model
wasputonthemarketin1999.
2.6. TrendsinalternativeconceptspassengercarsintheEUandMemberStatessupportedbydatawhen
possible(optional) (e.g. %ornumberoftotalnewlyregisteredpassengercar)
Nothingtoreport. SeeSection1.2above.
2.7. TrendsinlowemissionpassengercarsintheEUandMemberStatessupportedbydatawhen
possible(optional)(e.g. % or number oftotal newlyregisteredpassenger carswhichemitlessthan120
g/km)
As can be seen in the Annex, in 1999 ACEA members sold over 88,000 cars which emitted 120 g/km CO or less;
2
andthisamountedtoa 0.7%marketshare. In1995salesofsuchcarswerevirtuallynil.
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2.8. Datamethods (MonitoringDecision annexesII&III), datasources, anddataconfidencelevels
ACEA has utilised in this report CO statistics supplied by the French-based association AAA (Association
2
Auxiliaire de L'Automobile). AAA is an independent organisation under public mandate, whose business is to
develop and sell data to clients. In France they are official providers of automobile statistics to the government
agencies. They have devoted their resources to the development of a database to monitor CO emissions. They use
2
official data sources in the Member States for car registration data. AAA's CO database covers, in a consistent
2
manner, over 90% (90-92%) of the EU and the rest are unknown figures (data for Finland and Greece are not
available), and is widely regarded as one of the most reliable data sources currently available. The uncertainties
incorporated into the figures shown in this report due to the incompleteness of the data set cannot be numerically
quantified. However, theyareestimatedtobesmall. Itcanbeassumedthat theydonot influencetheoverallresult of
themonitoring.
ACEA has a high-level of confidence in the AAA data provided. However, 1995 figures should be taken as
indicativeandbroadlycorrect, giventhe 9% "across the board" adjustment applied to "old" cycle data (as described
inSection2.9).
ACEA has used the above data-source because the official EU CO monitoring scheme will not become operational
2
until2001/2.
2.9. DescriptionofmeasurementissuesforCO EmissionFactors(preandpost1995)
2
Another important data issue is the change that occurred in the official test-cycle that measures new car fuel
consumption/CO . Officialcar CO data isnowbeingestablishedaccordingtoDirective93/116/EC, whichreplaced
2 2
the «old» Directive 80/1268/EEC. This «new» test cycle was implemented, in large part, as from 1.1. 1997.
Amongst other changes, the «new» cycle includes for the first time a cold start period, and consequently higher
specific fuel consumption/specific CO emissions values result. In ACEA’s Commitment, a 9% correction has been
2
agreedupon.
According to ACEA it is important to emphasize the point that the 9% adjustment has been applied "across the
board" to 1995/old cycle figures. For greater accuracy differing rates of adjustment (non-linear) should have been
applied, e.g., for large/smallcarsandfor gasoline/diesel.
2.10. OtherIssues
TheACEACommitment signedinJuly1998 covers specifiedcar companies, includingDaimler-Benz. Subsequently
theDaimler-Chrysler groupwasformed. AlthoughChrysler wasnotincludedintheoriginalcommitment, ACEAhas
however statedthatitispreparedtoincludeChrysler anditisagreedthat:
• AllM1passenger carsmarketedbyDaimlerChrysler withintheEUwillbefullyincorporatedinthemonitoring
ofACEA'scommitmentonCO emissionreductionsfromnewpassenger cards, asendorsedbythe
2
Commission'srecommendation1999/125/EC.
• ThefullincorporationofallDaimlerChrysler passenger carsdoesnotentailanychangetothetargetvaluefor
2008andtheintermediatetargetrangefor 2003.
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