Modern Infectious Disease Epidemiology: Concepts, Methods, Mathematical Models, and Public Health PDF
Preview Modern Infectious Disease Epidemiology: Concepts, Methods, Mathematical Models, and Public Health
Statistics for Biology and Health SeriesEditors: M.Gail K.Krickeberg J.M.Samet A.Tsiatis W.Wong Forothertitlespublishedinthisseries,goto http://www.springer.com/series/2848 · · Alexander Krämer Mirjam Kretzschmar Klaus Krickeberg Editors Modern Infectious Disease Epidemiology Concepts, Methods, Mathematical Models, and Public Health 123 Editors AlexanderKrämer MirjamKretzschmar UniversitätBielefeldFak. UniversityMedicalCenterUtrecht Gesundheitswissenschaften JuliusCenterforHealth Universitätsstr.25 Sciences&PrimaryCare 33615Bielefeld Heidelberglaan100 Germany 3584CXUtrecht [email protected] TheNetherlands [email protected] KlausKrickeberg LeChâtelet F-63270Manglieu France [email protected] StatisticsforBiologyandHealthSeriesEditors M.Gail A.Tsiatis NationalCancerInstitute DepartmentofStatistics Bethesda,MD20892 NorthCarolinaStateUniversity USA Raleigh,NC27695 USA KlausKrickeberg LeChâtelet W.Wong F-63270Manglieu DepartmentofStatistics France StanfordUniversity Stanford,CA94305-4065 JonathanM.Samet USA DepartmentofPreventiveMedicine KeckSchoolofMedicine UniversityofSouthernCalifornia 1441EastlakeAve.Room4436,MC9175 LosAngles,CA90089 ISSN1431-8776 ISBN978-0-387-93834-9 e-ISBN978-0-387-93835-6 DOI10.1007/978-0-387-93835-6 SpringerNewYorkDordrechtHeidelbergLondon LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2009939504 ©SpringerScience+BusinessMedia,LLC2010 Allrightsreserved.Thisworkmaynotbetranslatedorcopiedinwholeorinpartwithoutthewritten permission of the publisher (Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, 233 Spring Street, New York, NY10013,USA),exceptforbriefexcerptsinconnectionwithreviewsorscholarlyanalysis.Usein connectionwithanyformofinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware, orbysimilarordissimilarmethodologynowknownorhereafterdevelopedisforbidden. Theuseinthispublicationoftradenames,trademarks,servicemarks,andsimilarterms,eveniftheyare notidentifiedassuch,isnottobetakenasanexpressionofopinionastowhetherornottheyaresubject toproprietaryrights. Whiletheadviceandinformationinthisbookarebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofgoing topress,neithertheauthorsnortheeditorsnorthepublishercanacceptanylegalresponsibilityforany errorsoromissionsthatmaybemade.Thepublishermakesnowarranty,expressorimplied,withrespect tothematerialcontainedherein. Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia(www.springer.com) Foreword Infectious diseases have been, alongside cardiovascular diseases and cancer, the mainthreattohumanhealth.Acuteandchronicrespiratorydiseases,especiallypul- monary tuberculosis, but also malaria, AIDS and acute infections of the digestive tractareresponsibleforalargeportionofmortality,bothindevelopinganddevel- oped countries. Moreover, the role of infectious agents in the genesis of various severe ailments, such as cardiovascular diseases, certain carcinomas and stomach ulcers,ismoreandmorebeingbroughttolight. Fighting infectious diseases has many aspects – all of them characterized by theirdynamicnature.First,infectionstravel.Theplaguedidsoextensivelyalready in the Middle Ages and up to the end of the nineteenth century. The Spanish flu at the end of World War I cost the lives of several million people all over the world.Atpresent,highmobilityofpeoplethroughtravelandmigrationandanever- increasingexchangeofgoodsaredrivingtherapidspreadofinfectionsaroundthe world. The first aspect of the fight against these infections is, therefore, what is commonly called “epidemic control”. This means fast information on new cases, on incidences and mortalities, on strains and transmission routes of the infectious pathogen, if possible centralized in a supranational institution such as the World HealthOrganization(WHO).Italsomeansmakingrapiddecisionsonintervention and treatment strategies, for example, isolation and prophylaxis or treatment with antivirals,forexample,stockpilingdrugs.Theefficacy ofmodernmethods ofepi- demiccontrolwasdemonstratedduringrecentlyemergingdiseaseslikethebovine spongiform encephalopathy (mad cow disease), the severe acute respiratory syn- drome (SARS) and avian influenza (A|H N ), which finally did not reach large 5 1 proportionsofthepopulation,especiallycomparedtothediseasesmentionedinthe beginning.ItistobehopedthatA|H N canalsobecontainedbyrigorouscontrol. 1 1 Asecondaspectofthefightagainstinfectiousdiseasesisthechangingenviron- mentinwhichdiseasetransmissionistakingplace.Thetransmissionofaninfection in a community or between communities is influenced by many characteristics of modernsocietiessuchasgrowingurbanizationaccompaniedbychangingstructures ofcitiesaswellasofthecountryside,differenthousingconditions,growingsocial inequalities that imply growing health inequalities, pollution and malnutrition that may weaken the immune system, and consequences of climate change. Classical v vi Foreword hygiene,bothpublicandpersonal,stillplaysapivotalroleinenvironmentalpreven- tion,butneedstobecomplementedbymeasuresthatrespondtotheaforementioned factors. A third aspect of dealing with infectious diseases is large-scale primary pre- vention, of which immunization is by far the most important tool. Starting with vaccination against smallpox, this public health measure has helped to reduce the burden of vaccine-preventable infections enormously. In many scientific studies, both the effectiveness and possible adverse effects of large-scale immunizations havebeeninvestigated. However, fighting infectious diseases is like shooting at a moving target. Pathogensarecontinuouslyevolving,amongothersunderthepressureoflarge-scale infection control measures like antibiotic treatment and vaccination. This aspect generatesrenewedchallengestoinfectiousdiseasecontrolandcreatestheneedfor continued efforts in the development of monitoring and control. While antibiotic andantiviralresistancehaveemergedandledtoincreasingproblemsinthecontrol of infections like tuberculosis and hospital infections around the world, molecu- larbiologyandbioinformaticshave,ontheotherhand,provideduswithtoolsthat allow increasingly detailed insight into the transmission patterns and dynamics of pathogens.Molecularsequencingincombinationwithepidemiologicalstudieshas elucidatedtransmissionroutesamongindividuals,riskgroupsandpopulations. Thesuccessfulimplementationofinfectiousdiseasecontroldependscritically,if not predominantly, on thorough knowledge of epidemiologic facts. Epidemic con- trolisbasedonsurveillanceanddetailedknowledgeofthepathsoftransmissionin a population. Environmental prevention rests on epidemiological studies of envi- ronmental risk factors. The planning and monitoring of immunization measures requires a deep understanding of their mechanisms and effects on transmission dynamics in a given community. Mathematical modelling is employed to com- puteandestimateparametersthatareimportantforunderstandingthetransmission dynamics. Mathematical modelling can be used to simulate outbreaks and to assess the effectiveness of different prevention and intervention strategies. Results from modelling studies help with interpreting epidemiological data and support evidence-baseddecisionsfortargetinginterventionsforeffectivediseasecontrol. Theaimofourbookistopresentthereaderwithageneralpictureandthemain ideas of the subject. We do not aim at covering the complete field of infectious diseaseepidemiology,butmoretointroducethereadertodifferentmethodological aspects of epidemiology that are specific for infectious diseases. Furthermore, we giveinsightintotheepidemiologyofsomeclassesofinfectiousdiseasescharacter- ized by their main modes of transmission. With this choice of topics we hope to bridgethegapbetweenscientificresearchontheclinical,biological,mathematical, socialandeconomic aspectsofinfectiousdiseasesandtheirapplications inpublic health. We would like the reader to understand the impact of infectious diseases on modern society and the instruments that policy makers have at their disposal to deal with these challenges. Hardly a day goes by without news headlines con- cerninginfectiousdiseasecontrol.Atthetimeofwritingtheselines,thespectreof a pandemic of influenza A|H N is raising its head and containment seems a lost 1 1 Foreword vii cause. At the same time, heated debates are taking place in many societies about the pros and cons of vaccinating young girls against human papillomavirus, while intheNetherlandsoneofthelargestoutbreaksofQfevereverobservedinhumans is unfolding. It seems as if the momentum of the challenges posed by infectious diseases to our ability to control them is increasing rather than decreasing, maybe duetotheincreasingpaceofchangesinhumansocietiesandtheirnaturalenviron- ments. In order to meet these challenges we need solid scientific knowledge and an understanding of all aspects of infectious diseases and their controls. With this bookwehopetoprovidethereaderwiththebasicgroundworkforthisknowledge andunderstanding.Wehopethatitwillcontributetoanevidence-basedandrespon- sible communication of infectious disease topics to avoid misunderstandings and overreactionofthepublic. Thebookiswrittenforstudentsofthehealthsciences,bothofcurativemedicine andpublichealth,andforexpertsthatareactiveintheseandrelateddomains.Itmay alsobeofinterestfortheeducatedlaymansincethetechnicalleveliskeptrelatively low. It has evolved from a rich experience of continuous teaching and research in manyplaces,butparticularlyattheSchoolofPublicHealthofBielefeldUniversity, Germany, where an international summer school in our field has been held every year since 1999. We hope that it will fill a gap and prove useful by “infecting” the reader with fascination for the features and the dynamics of infectious disease epidemiology. The first two parts of the text are general, treating the background and general methods for studying infectious diseases, while the third part deals with specific transmissionroutesandrelatedinfectiousdiseases. Acknowledgements WewouldliketothankthedoctoralstudentArinaZanuzdanafromtheDepartment ofPublicHealthMedicineoftheSchoolofPublicHealth,BielefeldUniversityfor her great engagement as technical editor, Mrs. Regine Myska for her secretarial assistance,andErichWehmeyerforhishelpinimprovingtheEnglishlanguageof the chapters. In addition, we are indebted to the many critical comments of our students and colleagues that will hopefully continue to improve the quality of our bookinfutureeditions. Bielefeld,Germany AlexanderKrämer Utrecht,TheNetherlands MirjamKretzschmar LeChâtelet(Manglieu),France KlausKrickeberg ix Contents PartI Challenges 1 TheGlobalBurdenofInfectiousDiseases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 PauloPinheiro,ColinD.Mathers,andAlexanderKrämer 2 GlobalChallengesofInfectiousDiseaseEpidemiology . . . . . . . 23 AlexanderKrämerandMd.MobarakHossainKhan 3 EmergingandRe-emergingInfectiousDiseases . . . . . . . . . . 39 ThomasLöscherandLuisePrüfer-Krämer 4 Infectious Disease Control Policies and the Role ofGovernmentalandIntergovernmentalOrganisations . . . . . . 69 GérardKrause PartII GeneralConceptsandMethods 5 PrinciplesofInfectiousDiseaseEpidemiology . . . . . . . . . . . 85 AlexanderKrämer,ManasAkmatov,andMirjamKretzschmar 6 SocialRiskFactors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 KlausKrickebergandDavidKlemperer 7 Molecular Typing and Clustering Analysis as a Tool forEpidemiologyofInfectiousDiseases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 SylviaM.BruistenandLeoSchouls 8 EpidemiologicSurveillance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 RalfReintjesandKlausKrickeberg 9 OutbreakInvestigations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159 RalfReintjesandAryna Zanuzdana 10 GeographicInformationSystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 177 PatrickHostertandOliverGruebner 11 MethodsandConceptsofEpidemiology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 193 RafaelMikolajczyk xi xii Contents 12 MathematicalModelsinInfectiousDiseaseEpidemiology . . . . . 209 MirjamKretzschmarandJaccoWallinga 13 ImmunitytoInfectiousDiseases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 223 TimoUlrichs 14 PrinciplesandPracticeofVaccinology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 235 RichardPebodyandMirjamKretzschmar 15 HealthEconomicsofInfectiousDiseases . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 249 RobertWelte,ReinerLeidl,WolfgangGreiner, andMaartenPostma PartIII EpidemiologyofParticularInfectiousDiseases 16 AirborneTransmission:InfluenzaandTuberculosis . . . . . . . . 279 TimoUlrichs 17 InfectiousChildhoodDiarrheainDevelopingCountries . . . . . . 291 CharlesP.Larson,LarsHenning,StephenLuby, andASGFaruque 18 BloodborneandSexualTransmission:HIV/AIDS . . . . . . . . . 309 CharlottevandenBerg,KarenLindenburg,andRoelCoutinho 19 BloodBorneandSexualTransmission:HepatitisBandC. . . . . 333 FrekeZuure,SusanHahné,ThijsvandeLaar, MariaPrins,andJimvanSteenbergen 20 SexualTransmission:Chlamydiatrachomatis . . . . . . . . . . . . 357 RobertE.JohnsonandStuartM.Berman 21 Vector-BorneTransmission:Malaria,Dengue,andYellowFever . 381 TomasJelinek 22 Nosocomial Transmission: Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcusaureus(MRSA) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 395 M.J.M.BontenandM.C.J.Bootsma 23 InfectiousDiseasesandCancer:HPV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 409 HelenTrottierandEduardoL.Franco Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 431
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