Modeling Pavement Distress Rates within US Air Force Airfields

112 Pages·2016·6.04 MB·English

by  Lauren Sahagun

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones
12-1-2014
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Lauren Sahagun
University of Nevada, Las Vegas
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Sahagun, Lauren, "Modeling Pavement Distress Rates within U.S. Air Force Airfields" (2014). UNLV
Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones. 2295.
http://dx.doi.org/10.34917/7048614
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MODELING PAVEMENT DISTRESS RATES WITHIN US AIR FORCE AIRFIELDS

By

Lauren K. Sahagun
Captain, USAF

Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering
United States Air Force Academy
2010

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the

Master of Science in Engineering – Civil & Environmental Engineering

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Howard R. Hughes College of Engineering
The Graduate College

University of Nevada, Las Vegas
December 2014
The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or
position of the United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or the United States Government.

DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION IS UNLIMITED
We recommend the thesis prepared under our supervision by
Lauren Sahagun
entitled
Modeling Pavement Distress Rates within U.S. Air Force Airfields
is approved in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of
Master of Science in Engineering -- Civil and Environmental
Engineering
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction

Moses Karakouzian, Ph.D., Committee Chair
Mohamed Kaseko, Ph.D., Committee Member
Douglas Rigby, Ph.D., Committee Member
Ashok Singh, Ph.D., Graduate College Representative
Kathryn Hausbeck Korgan, Ph.D., Interim Dean of the Graduate College

December 2014
iii
Abstract

Through the review of Pavement Condition Index (PCI) surveys completed at Air Force
installations scattered across the continental United States, pavement engineers at the Air Force
Civil Engineer Center propose that the predominant factor contributing to pavement distress
development is climate. They suggest that within each pavement distress type (i.e. alligator
cracking, rutting, spalling, etc.) a geographic pattern exists that is strongly correlated to the
conventional climate zones within the US. Knowledge of these geographic patterns would equip
pavement engineers and asset managers with a powerful tool to develop purposeful maintenance
strategies specific to each distress type.
The following approach was used to evaluate the hypothesis that climate is the predominant
pavement distress contributor. First the AF Roll-up Database, housing over 50,000 lines of
pavement distress data, was distilled using an original process designed to combine like distresses
while accounting for age and size of the pavement upon which the distress occurs. The process
effectively reduced the 50,000 lines of distress data to a format that could be used to perform krig
analysis. Krig analysis was performed upon the distilled pavement distress data to develop a
pavement behavior model for asphalt cement (AC) and portland cement concrete (PCC) runways.
Regression analysis and further krig analysis were conducted for each distress type within the
presented pavement models to identify if the distress behavior varies between the zones of the
models. The combined regression and krig analysis provided insight into the overall pavement
behavior for AC and PCC runways and illustrated which zone was more susceptible to specific
pavement distresses.
The investigation showed that some distresses display a strong geographic pattern while others
are more widespread. The model created in this research to assess the geographic patterns
embedded within the distress data and the krig analysis used to uncover these patterns are both
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based on a derivation of the PCI deduct value, which contains within it all five pavement
deterioration factors (climate, maintenance strategy, traffic load, construction history and pavement
structure). This research shows that there is a relationship between pavement distress and climate;
however, an investigation of patterns within the other four pavement deterioration factors must be
conducted before the conclusion can be made that it is the predominant factor. The data
consolidation process and pavement behavior models presented here provide a framework to
conduct the additional analysis.
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Table of Contents
Page
Electronic Approval Page…………………………………………………………………………iii
Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... iv
List of Tables ................................................................................................................................ viii
List of Figures .................................................................................................................................. x
Chapter 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background ............................................................................................................................ 1
1.2 Problem Statement ................................................................................................................. 4
1.3 Research Objectives ............................................................................................................... 5
Chapter 2 Literature Review ............................................................................................................ 6
2.1 Pavement Management System ............................................................................................. 6
2.1a Pavement Family Identification ....................................................................................... 7
2.1b Pavement Condition Index ............................................................................................... 8
2.2 PCI Survey and Calculation Procedures ................................................................................ 9
2.2a PCI Survey Procedures .................................................................................................. 10
2.2b Calculating the PCI ........................................................................................................ 11
Chapter 3 Assumptions .................................................................................................................. 17
Chapter 4 Data Source ................................................................................................................... 18
Chapter 5 Methodology ................................................................................................................. 19
5.1 Regression Analysis ............................................................................................................. 19
5.2 Model Approach .................................................................................................................. 22
5.3 Kriging ................................................................................................................................. 23
5.4 Distilling the Data-Road to Krig Layer................................................................................ 24
Chapter 6 Results and Analysis ..................................................................................................... 31
6.1 Developing the Models ........................................................................................................ 31
6.2 Statistical Investigation of RW Models Based on Average Deterioration Behavior ........... 37
6.3 Regression Analysis of Distress Behavior within Each Pavement Model ........................... 41
6.4 Distress Type Krig Analysis ................................................................................................ 41
6.5 Major Take Aways from Analysis ....................................................................................... 43
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Chapter 7 Conclusions ................................................................................................................... 61
Chapter 8 Recommendations ......................................................................................................... 63
Appendix A- Pavement Behavior Based Model Regression Analysis .......................................... 65
Appendix B- AFIT Climate Model Regression Analysis .............................................................. 72
Appendix C- Consol Regression and Krig Analysis for AC and PCC Pavement Distresses ........ 87
Appendix D- List of Acronyms Used ............................................................................................ 97
References ...................................................................................................................................... 98
VITA………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 99

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List of Tables
Page
Table 1: Average Rate of Deterioration for RW, TW and Aprons in each of the Four Climate
Zones Proposed by AFIT-AC/AAC ................................................................................................. 3
Table 2: Average Rate of Deterioration for RW, TW and Aprons in each of the Four Climate
Zones Proposed by AFIT-PCC ........................................................................................................ 4
Table 3: Distress Code Definition Chart (Shahin, 2005) .............................................................. 12
Table 4: Data Fields within AF Roll-up Database Used in Research ........................................... 18
Table 5: Example of Data Used to Create Pavement Model ........................................................ 26
Table 6: PCI Deduct Rate Calculation .......................................................................................... 28
Table 7: PCI Deduct Value for each Runway ............................................................................... 29
Table 8: Analysis of Alligator Cracking in AC Runways ............................................................ 43
Table 9: Analysis of Long/Trans Cracking in AC Runways ........................................................ 44
Table 10: Analysis of Patching in AC Runways ........................................................................... 45
Table 11: Analysis of Raveling in AC Runways .......................................................................... 46
Table 12: Analysis of Weathering in AC Runways ...................................................................... 47
Table 13: Analysis of Corner Breaks in PCC Runways ............................................................... 48
Table 14: Analysis of Linear Cracking in PCC Runways ............................................................ 49
Table 15: Analysis of Durability Cracking in PCC Runways....................................................... 50
Table 16: Analysis of Joint Seal Damage in PCC Runways ......................................................... 51
Table 17: Analysis of Small Patching in PCC Runways .............................................................. 52
Table 18: Analysis of Large Patching in PCC Runways .............................................................. 53
Table 19: Analysis of Scaling in PCC Runways ........................................................................... 54
Table 20: Analysis of Shattered Slabs in PCC Runways .............................................................. 55
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Table 21: Analysis of Shrinkage Cracking in PCC Runways ....................................................... 56
Table 22: Analysis of Joint Spalling in PCC Runways ................................................................ 57
Table 23: Analysis of Corner Spalling in PCC Runways ............................................................. 58
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