Modeling Complex Phenomena: Proceedings of the Third Woodward Conference, San Jose State University, April 12–13, 1991

314 Pages·1992·14.017 MB·English

by  A. N. Okerlund (auth.), Lui Lam, Vladimir Naroditsky (eds.)

Modeling Complex Phenomena
Woodward Conference
San Jose State University, San Jose, California
Wave Phenomena: Theoretical, Computational and Practical Aspects
Lui Lam and Hedley C. Morris, Editors
Nonlinear Structures in Physical Systems: Pattern Formation,
Chaos and Waves
Lui Lam and Hedley C. Morris, Editors
Modeling Complex Phenomena
Lui Lam and Vladimir Naroditsky, Editors
Lui Lam Vladimir N aroditsky
Editors
Modeling Complex Phenomena
Proceedings of the Third Woodward Conference
San Jose State University
April 12-13, 1991
With 116 Illustrations
Springer-Verlag
New York Berlin Heidelberg London Paris
Tokyo Hong Kong Barcelona Budapest
Lui Lam Vladimir Naroditsky
Department of Physics Department of Mathematics and
San Jose State University Computer Science
San Jose, CA 95192, USA San Jose State University
San Jose, CA 95192, USA
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Woodward Conference (3rd : 1991 : San Jose State University)
Modeling complex phenomena: proceedings of the Third Woodward
Conference, San Jose State University. April 12-13, 1991 / [edited
by] Lui Lam, Vladimir Naroditsky.
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
ISBN-13: 978-1-4613-9231-6 e-ISBN-13: 978-1-4613-9229-3
DOl: 10.1007/978-1-4613-9229-3
1. Chaotic behavior in systems-Congresses. 2. Computational
complexity- Congresses. 3. Mathematical physics-Congresses.
I. Lam, Lui. II. Naroditsky, Vladimir. III. Title.
QI72.5.C45W66 1991
003'.7 - dc20 92-4667
Printed on acid-free paper.
© 1992 Springer-Verlag New York, Inc.
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1992
All rights reserved. This work may not be translated or copied in whole or in part without the
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understood by the Trade Marks and Merchandise Marks Act, may accordingly be used freely by
anyone.
Production managed by Henry Krell; manufacturing supervised by Robert Paella.
Camera-ready copy prepared by the editors.
987654321
ISBN-13: 978-1-4613-9231-6
Preface
Once upon a time, science was not divided into disciplines as we know
it today. There was no distinction between so-called social and
natural sciences, not to mention the fragmentation of the latter into
physics, chemistry, biology, geology, etc. According to legend, the
scientists those days would do their research in whatever environment
they happened to find comfortable, which more often than not was in
bathtubs or giant hot tubs - remember Archimedes!
Then, somehow, these days we find ourselves compartmentalized
into different departments in our universities, or divisions in our
research institutes. (We suspect, for one thing, that is to ensure that
we will get our paychecks delivered on time at the end of each month.)
Anyway, as anyone who has worked in the real world knows: when
one is confronted with a completely new problem or phenomenon, it
is usually impossible to neatly assign the problem to physics,
chemistry, or, for that matter, computer science. One needs to recall
and fuse together the knowledge one learned before and, if that alone
is insufficient, to consult experts in other areas. This points to the
shortcomings of the compartmentalization of knowledge in our
educational systems.
In recent years, something has changed. Under the banner of
Complex Systems, some brave souls are not afraid to tackle problems
that are considered intractable by others, and dare to venture out of
their trained disciplines or departments to which they are attached.
A psychological barrier is broken, and the good old days of one unified
science could be back!
vi
While a clear definition remains elusive, Complex Systems research
usually signifies a synthetic approach in the investigation of systems
consisting of a large number of interacting, simple components,
irrespective of their origins. In fact, common features are found and
common methods are employed in the study of many social and
natural systems. Many of the best brains in the world are now
engaged in this exciting, new frontier of science. To find out why and
what they have been doing, we invited a group of leading experts here
at San Jose for two days on April 12-13, 1991, at the Third Woodward
Conference on Modeling Complex Phenomena. The use of the words
"complex phenomena" instead of "complex systems" emphasizes the
fact that we are interested in real problems from the real world.
In their talks, the invited lecturers were asked to give a long
introduction to the background materials, summarize the major
findings and present new research results. The topics covered include
physical computation, nonlinear forecasting, machine learning, neural
networks, fuzzy logic, chaotic dynamics and economic models, artificial
life, earthquake modeling, and complex patterns. The papers in the
proceedings here include both invited lectures and posters. They are
loosely divided into six parts according to the phenomena involved,
rather than the research methods used. Chaos and self-organized
criticality are the two recurrent themes common to some of the
papers.
Part I consists of three papers on paradigms, complexity, and
learning. Part II is on nonlinear forecasting and the arms race.
Economic systems make up Part III, while earthquakes and sandpiles
are grouped in Part IV. Part V is about computations in fluids and
crystal growths. Finally, various problems in complex patterns are
contained in Part VI. For a more detailed description, the reader is
referred to the first paragraph of each article which serves as the
abstract of the whole article.
The conference was sponsored by the Center for Applied
Mathematics and Computer Science, the Department of Physics and
vii
the Society of Archimedes, all of San Jose State University, and was
funded by the Woodward Bequest. The Advisory Board consisted of
David Campbell (Los Alamos), Jim Crutchfield (Berkeley), Chris
Langton (Los Alamos), Horazio Mendez (IBM San Jose), Roald
Sagdeev (College Park), and Patrick Suppes (Stanford). Lui Lam and
Vladimir N aroditsky served as cochairs of the conference; the
Organizing Committee consisted of Alejandro Garcia, Valery
Kanevsky, Lui Lam, Igor Malyshev and Vladimir Naroditsky.
We would like to thank all the people involved, especially to the
invited speakers - Michele Boldrin, Martin Casdagli, Jim Crutchfield,
Richard Durbin, Alejandro Garcia, David Haussler, Alfred Hiibler,
Valery Kanevsky, Bill Langlois, Chris Langton, Gottfried Meyer-Kress,
Patrick Suppes, Chao Tang, and Lotfi Zadeh - for their skillful
presentations. We are particularly indebted to Jim Crutchfield who
helped to shape the conference at the beginning and persuade others
to write up their talks at the end. We are grateful to Arlene
Okerlund, our Academic Vice President, for delivering the welcoming
remarks which are included in these proceedings; to Alan Ling, Veri!
Phillips and Donald Strandburg for their enthusiastic support.
Well, like many of the participants, we did enjoy very much and
learned a lot at the conference; we hope the readers will do the same
by reading these proceedings. With more progress and a little bit of
luck, maybe one day we will again be able to do science together in
the swimming pools, assuming, of course, that water-proof laptops are
available.
San Jose Lui Lam
December, 1991 Vladimir N aroditsky
Contents
Preface ................................................................................................ v
A Complex Phenomenon: The Human Mind........................ ............ 1
A.N. Okerlund
Part I Paradigms, Complexity, and Learning
Modeling and Control of Complex Systems:
Paradigms and Applications .............................................................. 5
A. Hubler (with 25 Figures)
Knowledge and Meaning: Chaos and Complexity........................... 66
J.P. Crutchfield (with 12 Figures)
Complexity Issues in Robotic Machine Learning of
Natural Languages ............................................................................. 102
P. Suppes, L. Liang and M. B6ttner (with 10 Figures)
Part II Forecasting and Arms Race
Nonlinear Forecasting, Chaos and Statistics ................................... 131
M. Casdagli (with 9 Figures)
Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos in Arms Race Models ................... 153
G. Mayer-Kress (with 10 Figures)
x
m
Part Economic Systems
Chaotic Dynamics in Economic Equilibrium Theory ...................... 187
M. Boldrin
Chaos and the Foreign Exchange Market .. .... ......... .... ........ ......... ... 200
C. Larsen and L. Lam (with 4 Figures)
Part IV Earthquakes and Sandpiles
Earthquakes as a Complex Phenomenon .. ...... .................... ............. 209
C. Tang (with 6 Figures)
Application of a Mean Field Approximation to Two Systems that
Exhibit Self-Organized Criticality .................................................... 221
J. Theiler (with 2 Figures)
Part V Fluids and Crystal Growths
Modeling the Hydrodynamics of Materials Processing ................... 231
W.E. Langlois (with 6 Figures)
Modeling Complex Phenomena in Fluids ............... .......... ......... ...... 255
A. Garcia, D. Morris, J. Stroh and C. Penland (with 5 Figures)
Part VI Complex Patterns
Consensus in Small and Large Audiences .............. ............ ... ..... ..... 267
V. Kanevsky, A. Garcia and V. Naroditsky (with 10 Figures)
xi
Nonhomogeneous Response of Reaction-Diffusion Systems to
Local Perturbations ... ........................................... ..... ............... ......... 284
B. Cayco, M. Feldman and V. Kanevsky (with 6 Figures)
Nonequilibrium Transient Near a Noise-Induced Instability ......... 295
H.K. Leung (with 2 Figures)
Active Walker Models for Filamentary Growth Patterns ............... 302
R.D. Freimuth and L. Lam (with 9 Figures)
Index of Contributors......................................................................... 315