Modeling and Management of Resources under Uncertainty: Proceedings of the Second U.S.-Australia Workshop on Renewable Resource Management held at the East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, December 9–12, 1985 PDF
Preview Modeling and Management of Resources under Uncertainty: Proceedings of the Second U.S.-Australia Workshop on Renewable Resource Management held at the East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, December 9–12, 1985
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Grantham, G. P. Kirkwood, and J. M. Skowronski Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York Tokyo Editorial Board M. Arbib H.J. Bremermann J. D. Cowan W. Hirsch S. Karlin J. B. Keller M. Kimura S. Levin (Managing Editor) R. C. Lewontin R. May J.D. Murray G.F. Oster A.S. Perelson T. Poggio L.A. Segel Editors Thomas L. Vincent Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering University of Arizona Tucson, AZ. 85721, USA Yosef Cohen Department of Fisheries and Wildlife University of Minnesota St. Paul, MN 55108, USA Walter J. Grantham Department of Mechanical and Materials Engineering Washington State University Pullman, WA 99164-2920, USA Geoffrey P. Kirkwood Division of Fisheries Research CSIRO Marine Laboratories GPO Box 1538 Hobart, Tasmania, Australia Jan M. Skowronski Department of Mathematics University of Queensland St. Lucia Queensland 4067, Australia Mathematics Subject Classification (1980): 34C 11, 34C35, 34020, 49A 10, 49E99, 60H99, 90099, 93005, 93C 15 ISBN-13: 978-3-540-17999-3 e-ISBN-13: 978-3-642-93365-3 DOl: 10.1007/978-3-642-93365-3 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, re·use of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in other ways, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is only permitted under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its version of June 24, 1985, and a copyright fee must always be paid. Violations fall under the prosecution act of the German Copyright Law. © Springer·Veriag Berlin Heidelberg 1987 PREFACE This vol ume contains the proceedings of the second U.S.-Austral ia workshop on Renewable Resource Management held at the East-West Center, Honolulu, Hawaii, December 9-12, 1985. The workshop was jointly sponsored by the National Science Foundation (USA) and the Department of Science and Technology (Austral ia) under the U.S.-Austral ia Cooperative Science Program. The objective of the workshop was to focus on problems associated with the management of renewable resource systems. A particular emphasis was given to methods for handling uncertain elements whieh are present in any real system. Toward this end, the partiei pants were chosen so that the collective expertise included mathematical modeling, dynamical control/game theory, ecology, and practical management of real systems. Each participant was invited to give an informal presentation in his field of expertise as related to the overall theme. The formal papers (contained in this vo 1 ume) were written after the workshop so that the authors coul d util ize the workshop experience in relating their own work to others. To further encourage this exchange, each paper contained in this volume was reviewed by two other participants who then wrote formal comments. These comments (with author's reply in some cases) are attached to the end of each paper. feel that these comments (and repl ies) form a very valuable part of this volume in that they provide to the reader a share of the workshop experience. They al so provide a thread which hel ps tie many of the papers together. Indeed the reader may wish to peruse the comments first. For review purposes, the papers were originally grouped according to the classifications Modelling/Biology, Controls/Techniques, and Management/Real Problems. These headings give a flavor of the material presented here and the same headings are used to group the papers in this volume. The fact that many of the papers cross these boundaries reflects the focus and interdisciplinary nature of the workshop. Since modelling is the key to analysis, the majority of papers in this volume deal either directly or indirectly with system modelling. Papers dealing more directly with the modelling question are contained in Part I. Topics include scale and predictability, stochastic dynamic programming, stage structure, uncertain stock sizes, random environmental variables, identification and verification, evolutionary effects, and habitat selection. A number of techniques particul arly appl icabl e to the determination of management policy from models subject to uncertainty are contained in Part II. Both discrete and continuous system model s are used. The first two papers use a statistical approach to examine adaptive control and parameter estimation. The next four papers use deterministic methods to deal with system uncertainty. The first two of these use reachable set methods and the last two use Liapunov methods. IV The remaining two papers in this section use methods from optimal control and game theory to arrive at management policy. Part III is devoted to those papers dealing more directl y with the management of real problems. These include the management of the Ogalalla Aquifer, the Great Lakes, California sardines, Oregon groundfishery, tuna in the Western Pacific, the California river system, and Western King prawns in Spencer Gulf. I would like to acknowledge the service that coeditor Jan Skowronski provided in helping to organize the workshop. I am also indebted to coeditors Yosef Cohen, Walt Grantham, and Geoff Kirkwood who did most of the work in organizing the reviews and comments. T. L. Vincent Tucson, Arizona March 2, 1987 PARTICIPANTS Dr. Ann Lowes Blackwell. Mechanical Engineering, University of Texas, Arlington, Texas 76019 USA. Dr. Louis W. Botsford. Department of Wildlife and Fisheries Biology, University of California, Davis, California 95616 USA. Dr. Colin W. Clark. Institute of Applied Mathematics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada V6T lW5. Dr. Yosef Cohen. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota 55108 USA. Dr. Michael E. Fisher. Department of Mathematics, University of Western Australia, Nedlands, Western Aust~alia 6009. Dr. Wayne M. Getz. Division of Biological Control, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720 USA. Dr. Walter J. Grantham. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington 99164-2920 USA. Dr. Susan Hanna. Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon 97331-3601 USA. Dr. Ray Hilborn. Tuna and Billfish Assessment Programme, South Pacific Commission, Post Box 0-5, Noumea Cedex, New Caledonia. Dr. Geoff P. Kirkwood. Division of Fisheries Research, CSIRO Marine Laboratories, GPO Box 1538, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia. Dr. Cho Seng Lee. Department of Mathematics, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur 22-11, Malaysia. Dr. George Leitmann. Departme.nt of Mechanical Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720 USA. Dr. Paul F. Lesse. CSIRO, Building Research Division, Graham Road, Highett, Victoria 3190, Aust ra 1 i a. Dr. Simon A. Levin. Ecology and Systematics and Ecosystems Research Center, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853 USA. Dr. Donald Ludwig. Institute of Animal Resource Ecology, The University of British Columbia, 2204 Main Mall, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada V6T 1W5. Dr. Marc Mangel. Department of Mathematics, University of California, Davis, California 95616 USA. Dr. Robert McKel vey. Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana 59812 USA. Mr. Brodie Nicol. Department of Mathematics, University of Queensl and, St. Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland 4067 Australia. Dr. Michael L. Rosenzweig. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721 USA. Dr. Jan M. Skowronski. Department of Mathematics, Uni versity of Queensl and, St. Lucia, Brisbane, Queensland 4067, Australia. VI Dr. Philip R. Sluczanowski. Department of Fisheries, Box 1625, G.P.O., Adelaide, South Australia, 5001. Dr. George R. Spangler. Department of Fisheries and Wildlife, 200 Hodson Hall, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota 55455 USA. Dr. Russel J. Stonier. Department of Mathematics and Computing, Capricornia Institute of Advanced Education, Rockhampton, Queensland, Australia. Dr. Thomas l. Vincent, Department of Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, The University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721 USA. Dr. Carl J. Walters. Institute of Animal Resource Ecology, The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, B.C., Canada V6T lW5. CONTENTS PREFACE •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• I I I PARTICIPANTS v PART I MODELLING/BIOLOGY SCALE AND PREDICTABILITY IN ECOLOGICAL MODELING ••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 2 Simon A. Levin BEHAVIORAL MODELLING AND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT •••••••••••••••••• • • • • • • • • • • • 11 Colin W. Clark . MODELING FOR BIOLOGICAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT ••••••• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •• 22 Wayne M. Getz OPTIMAL HARVEST POLICIES FOR FISHERIES WITH 43 UNCERTAIN STOCK SIZES G.P. Kirkwood ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES ON 54 POPULATION DYNAMICS Louis W. Botsford IDENTIFICATION AND CONTROL OF STOCHASTIC 66 LINEAR MULTISPECIES ECOSYSTEM MODELS Yosef Cohen AN EVOLUTIONARY RESPONSE TO HARVESTING 80 Thomas L. Vincent and Joel S. Brown DENSITY-DEPENDENT HABITAT SELECTION: A TOOL FOR 98 MORE EFFECTIVE POPULATION MANAGEMENT Michael L. Rosenzweig PART II CONTROLS/TECHNIQUES APPROACHES TO ADAPTIVE POLICY DESIGN FOR ................................. 114 HARVEST MANAGEMENT Carl J. Walters COMPUTER-INTENSIVE METHODS FOR FISHERIES •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 125 STOCK ASSESSMENT Donald Ludwig VARIABILITY IN ECOSYSTEM MODELS: ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 139 A DETERMINISTIC APPROACH Michael E. Fisher VIII CONTENTS (continued) GENERATING REACHABLE SET BOUNDARIES FOR 152 DISCRETE-TIME SYSTEMS Walter J. Grantham and Michael E. Fisher UNCERTAIN DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS: AN APPLICATION TO •••.•••••••••••••••••.••••• 167 RIVER POLLUTION CONTROL C.S. Lee and G. Leitmann REAL TIME MANAGEMENT OF A RESOURCE ••••••••.••••.•••..•.•••.•••••.••...• 186 CONSUMPTION MODEL G. Bojadziev and J. Skowronski CONTROL PROBLEMS IN IRRIGATION MANAGEMENT 195 R.J. Stonier A DIFFERENTIAL GAME BETWEEN TWO PLAYERS 207 HARVESTING FROM A DIVIDED FISHERY Brodie Nicol PART III MANAGEMENT/REAL PROBLEMS GROUNDWATER-BASED AGRICULTURE IN THE ARID •••••••••••••••.••••••.••••••••• 222 AMERICAN WEST: MODELING THE TRANSITION TO A STEADY-STATE RENEWABLE RESOURCE ECONOMY Robert McKel vey GREAT LAKES FISHERIES: ARE EXPLICIT ••••••••••••••.•••..••.•.••.•••..••• 236 CONTROLS NECESSARY? George R. Spangler SAMPLING HIGHLY AGGREGATED POPULATIONS WITH •••.•••••••••.•••.•••••••••••. 247 APPLICATION TO CALIFORNIA SARDINE-MANAGEMENT Marc Mangel THE STRUCTURE OF FISHING SYSTEMS AND THE ••••••••.••••.•••.•••••••••••••• 264 IMPLEMENTATION OF MANAGEMENT POLICY Susan S. Hanna SPATIAL MODELS OF TUNA DYNAMICS IN THE WESTERN •••••••••.•••••••••••••.••• 276 PACIFIC: IS INTERNATIONAL MANAGEMENT NECESSARY? Ray Hil born EXAMINATION OF INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURES IN MULTIPLE •••••••••••••••••••••••. 287 RESOURCE, MULTIPLE MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS: A CONTROL THEORETIC APPROACH Ann Lowes Blackwell OPTIMAL HARVESTING OF A YEAR-CLASS OF PRAWNS ••••••••••••••••••.•••••••••• 304 Phil ip R. Sl uczanowski PART I MODELLING/BIOLOGY
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