Model-Based Reasoning in Scientific Discovery PDF
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Model-Based Reasoning in Scientific Discovery Model-Based Reasoning in Scientific Discovery Edited by Lorenzo Magnani University of Pavia Pavia, Italy N ancy J. N ersessian Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta, Georgia and Paul Thagard University of Waterloo Waterloo, Ontario, Canada Springer Science+Business Media, LLC Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Model-based reasoning in scientifie diseovery/edited by Lorenzo Magnani, Nancy J. Nersessian and Paul Thagard. p. em. Proceedings of an International Conferenee on Model-Based Reasoning in Seientific Discovery, held December 17-19, 1998, in Pavia, Italy-T.p. verso. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-4613-7181-6 ISBN 978-1-4615-4813-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4615-4813-3 1. Science-Methodology Congresses. 2. Diseoveries in science Congresses. 3. Qualitative reasoning Congresses. 1. Magnani, Lorenzo. II. Nersessian, Nancy J. III. Thagard, Paul. IV. International Conference on Model-Based Reasoning in Scientific Discovery (1998: Pavia, Italy) Q175.32.R45M65 1999 501'.l-de21 99-44860 CIP Proceedings of the International Conference on Model-Based Reasoning in Scientific Discovery, held December 17-19, 1998, in Pavia, ltaly ISBN 978-1-4613-7181-6 © 1999 Springer Seienee+Business Media New York Originally published by Kluwer Academic / Plenum Publishers in 1999 Softeover reprint ofthe hardeover Ist edition 1999 10987654321 A c.I.P. record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. Ali rights reserved No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording, or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher Preface The volume is based on the papers that were presented at the Interna tional Conference Model-Based Reasoning in Scientific Discovery (MBR'98), held at the Collegio Ghislieri, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy, in December 1998. The papers explore how scientific thinking uses models and explanatory reasoning to produce creative changes in theories and concepts. The study of diagnostic, visual, spatial, analogical, and temporal rea soning has demonstrated that there are many ways of performing intelligent and creative reasoning that cannot be described with the help only of tradi tional notions of reasoning such as classical logic. Traditional accounts of scientific reasoning have restricted the notion of reasoning primarily to de ductive and inductive arguments. Understanding the contribution of model ing practices to discovery and conceptual change in science requires ex panding scientific reasoning to include complex forms of creative reasoning that are not always successful and can lead to incorrect solutions. The study of these heuristic ways of reasoning is situated at the crossroads of philoso phy, artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, and logic; that is, at the heart of cognitive science. There are several key ingredients common to the various forms of model based reasoning to be considered in this book. The models are intended as in terpretations of target physical systems, processes, phenomena, or situations. The models are retrieved or constructed on the basis of potentially satisfying salient constraints of the target domain. In the modeling process, various forms of abstraction are utilized. Evaluation and adaptation take place in light of structural, causal, and/or functional constraints. Simulation can be used to produce new states and enable evaluation of behaviors and other factors. The book also addresses some of the main aspects of the nature of abduc tion, connecting it to the central epistemological question of hypothesis with drawal in science and model-based reasoning, where abductive inferences ex hibit their most appealing cognitive virtues. The various contributions of the book are written by interdisciplinary re searchers in philosophy, artificial intelligence, and cognitive science who are v vi Preface active in the area of creative reasoning in science: the most recent results and achievements about the topics above are illustrated in detail in their papers. The book is divided in three parts. The ftrst part Models, mental models, and representations contains the contributions of N.J. Nersessian; D. Bailer Jones; R. Giere; K. Knoespel; M. Suarez; and K. Dunbar. The second part Discovery processes and mechanism is composed of the papers of D. Good ing and T.R. Addis; P. Thagard and D. Croft; T. Harris; V. Raisis; S. Krauss, L. Martignon, and U. Hoffrage; and F.T. Arecchi. Finally, the last part, Creative inferences and abduction, include the contributions of J. Me heus; L. Magnani; I. Niiniluoto; E. Winsberg; F. Hendricks and J. Faye; C. Pizzi; J. Zytkow. The conference, and thus indirectly this book, was made possible through the generous fmancial support of the University of Pavia and of CARIPLO (Cassa di Risparrnio delle Provincie Lombarde). Their support is gratefully acknowledged. The editors, and co-chairs of the conference, would like to express their appreciation to the other members of the Scientiftc Committee for their sug gestions and assistance: R. Giere, Department of Philosophy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, USA; David Gooding, Department of Psychology, University of Bath, Bath, United Kingdom; Joke Meheus, University of Ghent, Ghent, Belgium; Claudio Pizzi, Department of Philosophy and Social Sciences, University of Siena, Siena, Italy; Mario Stefanelli, Department of Computer Science, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy; Raul Valdes-Perez, De partment of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, USA. Special thanks to the members of the Local Organizing Committee Maria Teresa Oldani, Stefania Pernice, Giulio Poletti, Stefano Rini, for their contri bution in organizing the conference, to Massimo Manganaro, Stefania Per nice, Anna Maria Marchini for their contribution in the preparation of this volume, and to the copy-editor Linda d' Arrigo. The preparation of the volume would not have been possible without the contribution of resources and facili ties of the Computational Philosophy Laboratory and of the Department of Philosophy, University of Pavia. The remaining papers deriving from the presentations given at the Confer ence will be published in three Special Issues of Journals: in Foundations of Science, Model-based reasoning in science: learning and discovery; in Phi losophica, Abduction and scientiftc discovery; in Philosophica, Analogy and mental modeling in scientific discovery. Lorenzo Magnani, Pavia, Italy Nancy J. Nersessian, Atlanta, GA, USA Paul Thagard, Waterloo, Canada May 1999 Contents MODELS, MENTAL MODELS, AND REPRESENTATIONS 3 Model-Based Reasoning in Conceptual Change 5 Nancy J. Nersessian Tracing the Development of Models in the Philosophy of Science 23 Daniela M. Bailer-Jones Using Models to Represent Reality 41 Ronald N. Giere Models and Diagrams within the Cognitive Field 59 Kenneth J. Knoespel Theories; Models, and Representations 75 Mauricio Suarez How Scientists Build Models InVivo Science as a Window on the Scientific Mind 85 Kevin Dunbar vii viii Contents DISCOVERY PROCESSES AND MECHANISMS 101 A Simulation of Model-Based Reasoning about Disparate Phenomena 103 David C. Gooding and Tom R. Addis Scientific Discovery and Technological Innovation: Ulcers, Dinosaur Extinction, and the Programming Language Java 125 Paul Thagard and David Croft A Hierarchy of Models and Electron Microscopy 139 Todd Harris Expansion and Justification of Models: the Exemplary Case of Galileo Galilei 149 Vasitis Raisis Simplifying Bayesian Inference: the General Case 165 Stefan KraufJ, Laura Martignon, and Ulrich Hoffrage Complexity versus Complex Systems: A New Approach to Scientific Discovery 181 F. Tito Arecchi CREATIVE INFERENCES AND ABDUCTION 197 Model-Based Reasoning in Creative Processes 199 Joke Meheus Model-Based Creative Abduction 219 Lorenzo Magnani Abduction and Geometrical Analysis. Notes on Charles S. Peirce and Edgar Allan Poe 239 Ilkka Niiniluoto The Hierarchy of Models in Simulation 255 Eric Winsberg Abducting Explanation 271 Vincent F. Hendricks and Jan Faye Contents ix Fictionalism and the Logic of "As If' Conditionals 293 Claudio Pizzi Scientific Modeling: A Multilevel Feedback Process 311 Jan M. Zytkow Author Index 327 Subject Index 333 Model-Based Reasoning in Scientific Discovery This schematism of our understanding in regard to phe nomena and their mere form, is an art, hidden in the depths of the human soul, whose true modes of action we shall only with difficulty discover and unveil Immanuel Kant, The Critique ofP ure Reason
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