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MIT Technology Review 1996-01 PDF

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Published by MIT This PDF is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by copyright law. For non-personal use, or to order multiple copies please email [email protected]. It's pretty clear who's in charqe here, at leastfrom where you're standing. And the LTE 5000~ could help you stay there. It's a Pentium" powered notebookftaturinB interchanqeable devices - and the remarkable ability to invoke superhuman powers upon its user.Its unique,front-loadinB MultiBo/ makes it completely modular, soyou can show up at any meetinB with a notebook customized Jar the apenda. ChooseJrom asecond hard drive (up to 1.35BiBabytes), a CD-ROM drive, asecond battery, or afloppy drive to create the notebook that's riBhtJor the task at hand. An expansion base alsoftatures two additional MultiBays (and looks sreat on aBiant Blass desk). interested? Call 1-800-345-1518 (select PaqFax) or visit our Website at www.compaq.com. THE COMPAQ LTE 5000. THE ULTIMATE 1\ e: c j rUrn drIVe expan 5ion bas &:J99SCompaq Computer Corpcran...n...Allrightsreserved.Compaq. ITE5000 Rt'gi.!ltcrcdU.S.PatentandTrademarkoffice. Pentiumis.lregistered trademarkofIntelCorporation tntheU.S.andoiliercountries. Adobe Phctoshcp ISaregJsteredtrademark orAdobe Systems Incorporated. TECHNOLOGY REVIEW JANUARY 1996 Contents FEAT-URES 22 YOUNG ENGINEERS ON WALL STREET BYSTEPHEN D.SOLOMON Afterobtaining hisPhDincomputer science,DanNussbaum wenttowork not atDigitalorApplebut ataNewYorkinvestment bank. Heisnotalone. Manyengineering graduates areheading forthefinancial-services industry, which needstheir computer savvyand problem-solving sophistication. 22 30 THE ELECTRIC CAR UNPLUGGED BYRICHARD DE NEUFVILLE, STEPHEN R. CONNORS, FRANKR.FIELDIll, DAVlDMARKS, DONALD R. &4DOWAY, AND RICHARD D. TABORS Althoughsomestateshavemade amajor commitment toputting electric vehiclesonthe roadsoon, EVsarenot readyforprime time. Becausetheir costistoohigh fortheir modestperformance, argue theauthors, theyare inappropriate fortheconsumer market. Andtheywillnotcontribute much tocleaner air.Abetter approach wouldpromote moreeffectivepollution- 30 reduction strategies aswellasresearch on arange ofalternative vehicles. 38 UNDER THE VOLCANO BYPETER TYSON Becausemorepeoplethan everbeforenowliveon theflanksofvolcanoes, the U.S.GeologicalSurveymaintains that half abillion oftheearth's inhabitants are atriskfrom aneruption. Scientistsaredesperatelydeveloping 38 methods topredictexactlywhich volcanowillnextblowitstop,andwhen. 48 FINDING ONE'S OWN SPACE IN CYBERSPACE BYAMYBRUCKMAN What'syourelectronic pleasure: theequivalent ofabiker'shangout ora fernbar?DiscoveringInternet communities withthedesiredambience and compatible patrons among thethousands online isnot alwayseasy. Acyberspaceaficionada offersspecifictechniques tohelp userstrackdown sympathetic sites,shape them totheir needs,and evencreate their own. COVER: JOHN PATRICK TECHNOLOGY REvIEw VOL.99/No. 1 DEPARTMENTS 5 FIRST LINE 8 LETTERS 11 MIT REpORTER Toward aCleaner, Tidier Net;ANeighborly Approach toSupercomputing 14 TRENDS Brighter, Whiter Lights; AModest Moon Mission; Fewer SizesFitAll 55 THE HUMANE ENGINEER SAMUEL C.FLORMAN Celebration ofspectacular stunts will not engender long-term public support for technological advances. Encouraging a basic familiarity with the engineering process, akin tothe amateur's appreciation ofsports, will. 57 THE ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE BENNETT HARRISON Individual companies, aswell asthe overall economy, enjoy the benefits of federal programs that foster collaborative efforts todevelop new technology. So why isthe private sector quietly letting Congress kill these promising initiatives? 14 58 FORUM KEVINROBERT GURNEY Despite progress incurbing ozone-destroying chemicals, the ozone hole is spreading. Practical measures to reduce emissions faster could lower the risk. 60 REVIEWS Jonathan B.Tucker on TheSpread ofNuclear Weapons:ADebate, byScott D.Sagan and Kenneth N.Waltz , 72 PHENOMENA Long LiveRoyG.Biv Technology Review(ISSN0040·1692),Reg.U.S.PatentOffice,ispublishedeighttimeseacb year (january, FebruarylMarch,April,May!june,July,AugUSt/September,October,and ovemberlDecember) bytheAIsoclationofAlumniandAlumnaeoftheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology.Entirecontents©1996.Theeditorsseekdiversevi....,andauthors' opinionsdonotrepresenttheofficialpoliciesof theirinstitutionsorthoseofMIT.Wewelcomeletterstotheeditor.PleaseaddressthemtoLenersEditor,doaddressbeloworbye-mail to:<technology·",[email protected]>. Editorial, circulation, andadvertising offices:TechnologyReview, BuildingW59,MIT,Cambridge,MA02139,(617)253-8250;FAX(617)258-7264.PrintedbyLanePress,S.Burlington,\T, Second-classpostagepaidatBooton,MAandadditionalmailingoffioes. Postmaster:sendaddresschangestoTechllologyRevieIJJ,MIT,BuildingW59,Cambridge,MA02139,ore-mailto<[email protected]>. Subscriptions: $30peryear.Canadaadd$6,otherforeigncountriesadd$12.ContactTechllologyRezJieuJ,P.O.Box489,MounlMoms, IL61054,(BOO)877-5230or(815)73 -1116;FAX(815)734·J127, ore-mailto<[email protected]>. Advertisingrepresematives: TheLeadershipNetwork:KikiParis,200MadisonA'll.,NewYork,NY10016,(212)686-1734. TechllologyReview's e-mailaddress:<trad'[email protected]>. Recruitment Advertising:ContactMarthaConnors,(617)253-8293ormconnors@m1tedu World Wide Web:VisitourhomepageathUp://I;t!b.mit.edultechreviewlwwwl. PrintedInU.SA "The leadership of this • • eenng company understands the imparlance of having excellent people on staff." Reflections: The Engineer: Rob Parker, Group Leader, Product Development and Design, BSEE and MSEE, Massachusetts Institute ofTechnology Date Hired: June, 1989 Last Position: "1was with the product division u.s. ofa major TVmanufacturer from 1976 until 1989.During my last two years, there was a lot of instability. When 1was asked to begintrimming the eight engineering groups Iran,1realized itwas time to go someplace where goals were long-term and success was defined as the ability to innovate, rather than the ability to reduce costs." The Goal: "1wanted acredible, prosperous company with asecure future. The opportunity to leam and grow was important. Also, having worked on Tv's, Iknew the excitement of walking into someone's home and seeing a product that 1helped create; 1wanted to main- tain that feeling.Time to think, inaframework ofpersonal freedom, was also a factor." The Result: "Here, the chairman, president, and many senior managers are engineers. Decision-making isrational. We're committed to applying advanced technology for the bene- fitofconsumers. We strive tomake things that are better and different. And because top management knows what ittakes to do that, Rob Parker,inoneofthenew screenroomsatBose~ I'm surrounded by excellent people and facili- ties. I'm growing, and I'm doing fun stuff in a fun environment. Bose isserious about the Bose Corporation isamong the most successful dual career ladder, so 1know that ifIcontinue American companies competing intheinternational con- to succeed, I'llcontinue to berewarded." sumer products marketplace. We welcome exceptional Formoreinformation onopportunities at engineers with imagination and courage who wish to Bose, please write, inoonfidence, to Paul McKinley, Director, Engineering Opera- pursue their ideas inan innovative team environment. tions,BoseCorporation, The Mountain, Framingham, MA 01701-9168. RF5EARQ-I ENGINEER BoseisanAffinn.1tiveActionfmployer. With members ofthe research staff within R&D solveacoustics modeling problems. Fundamental research willdirectly support new developments in consumer electronic products. Experience needed incomparing the behavior ,. ofa model to the physical systems being modeled, and implementing new approximation methods that predict results accurately. Hands onexperience required infiniteelement and boundary element analysis, and knowledge of the mathematics underlying these methods. Must be familiar with lump element modeling ofacoustic systems. Requirements: MS, Ph.D. inphysics or math and fiveyears ofdirectly related experience. First line cially as jobs in more "traditional" are- vises, "we should rejoice." Saving the World nas dry up. In any case, Weatherall notes that he on Wall Street? On the other hand, itisworrisome to has been working with engineering stu- note the lack of apparent soul-searching dents since 1969, and "very few have by young professionals as they abandon evergone offon 'high-minded' pursuits." I n life,lamented theghost ofJacob attempts to create wealth through con- Most have taken jobs with, or founded, Marley in Dickens's A Christmas ventionally defined means and move into technology-based companies, and inthis Carol, '''my spirit never walked new activities that seem to create little of day and age firms in the financial indus- beyond our counting house....[lt] their own. Such efforts presumably try are themselves becoming technology- never roved beyond the narrow limits of divert scarce resources, not leastthe engi- based companies. Thus to dismiss the our money-changing hole.' neers' talents, from more productive young engineers on Wall Street as hav- '''But you were always agood man of enterprises. Says one TR colleague: "I ingbeen impressed into some crap game, business, Jacob,' faltered Scrooge. have little interest in anyone who would he says, iswrong. "'Business!' cried the Ghost, wring- But even if the machinations of Wall ing his hands again. 'Mankind was my As Street are indeed nothing more than a young engineers business. The common welfare was my glorified casino, who can say whether business..: " this ultimately hurts or serves the na- branch far and wide, Many journalists who came of age in tion-whether financially savvy individ- the 1960s-indeed, students and profes- uals acting in their own self-interest do theysquander their sionals of all kinds who struggled with undermine or actually help fulfill the the big issues of the era-were intent on "high-minded" principles of others. For skills orapply them in applying their skillsto that common wel- example, Solomon notes that even the fare. "Business," especially in its pejora- much-maligned arbitrageurs, who ex- new and valuable ways? tive "money-changing" connotations, ploit minuscule price anomalies between was about as attractive to many of us as - securities in different locations to earn napalm. Though our definitions of right large profits, can be seen as "lubricating and wrong may have been narrow, even the market" to the benefit of allwho buy intolerant, we were proud that our pur- use 13 years of an MIT education to and sell. pose-basically, to "save the world"- design blackjack programs and then take "Greed, for want of a better term, is was lofty. Regardless of what we may ajob because ofsome abstract, unexam- good," asserts the fictional Gordon Gek- now do, we therefore tend to beappalled ined compulsion to hack." ko, aprominent securities speculator and that contemporary campuses have I asked author Steve Solomon, a pro- chief heavy of Oliver Stone's film Wall become, in the words of activist Abby fessor of journalism at New York Uni- Street. "Greed is right. Greed works. Hoffman, "hotbeds of rest." Recent versity, for hisown reactions. He concurs Greed clarifies, cuts through, and cap- graduates seem not only unhindered by that social consciousness is indeed rela- tures the essence of the evolutionary major social concerns but to be actively tivelyrare among students today, regard- spirit. Greed in all of its forms-greed "selling out." lessofmajor. But Solomon notes that the for life, for money, for love, knowl- Thus itiswith a tinge of ambivalence young engineers heading to Wall Street edge-has marked the upward surge of among a few of the staff members of do not see themselves as selling out. For mankind." Technology Review that we present this the most part, he says, their goal is "not This is clearly a "good man of busi- issue's cover story, "AnEngineer Goes to to milk the system with trades but to ness" in whom my TR colleague would Wall Street" byStephen D.Solomon. On design different kinds of products- have "little interest." But maybe we the one hand, it isa fascinating article financial products-that create wealth should not presume to judge himor his describing a bona fide national trend- just as surely as, say, computers." Inter- ilk or their technologically sophisticated the recognition by parties well outside estingly, many of these individuals, says associates. Ademocratic society, after all, the realm oftraditional engineering, par- Solomon, "are simply turned off by tra- must operate according to the principles ticularly leaders in the financial indus- ditional engineering," seeing it as over- ofdo your own thing and liveand letlive. try, that young engineers possess the specialized and boring. A vital economy, like a strong and mathematical and general problem-solv- Meanwhile, Robert K. Weatherall, healthy ecosystem, needs critters at ing skills to become critical assets in this director of career services at MIT, sees diverse points in the food chain. Only age of complex services and high-speed the tendency ofrecent engineering gradu- with tolerance and mutual respect can transactions. For engineering graduates, ates to turn to the financial industry as a we alldo our part to "save the world.". that industry represents anew and excit- marvelous "tribute to the skills of engi- ing source of career opportunities, espe- neers." 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