Measuring Success in Human Settlements Development

149 Pages·2011·8.36 MB·English

Measuring Success in Human Settlements

Development:
An Impact Evaluation Study of the Upgrading of
Informal Settlements Programme in selected
projects in South Africa

May 2011
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The Upgrading of Informal Settlements Impact Evaluation Study was conducted in the 2009/10 Financial
Year. The UISP Study focused on the three Provinces namely Free State, Gauteng and Limpopo. It has
been a challenging and yet rewarding experience for the Impact Evaluation Directorate. The Impact
Evaluation Directorate would like to express its sincerest gratitude to the following people who have
done a sterling job to ensure the success of the study:
Monitoring and Evaluation team: Led by Mr. Phillip Chauke, the UISP studies were expertly managed by
Ms. Mulalo Muthige. Supporting team members included: Julius Ngoepe, Nozulu Keswa, Mahlane
Malatji, Justice Mukhethoni, Tshepiso Nkome, Buyisiwe Mathokazi, Nthabiseng Moloantoa, Marcus
Ramakgale, Anelisa Qhusu, Fridah Mabane, Marlene Kemp and Lenie Visser. Thank you very much for
your co-operation and hard work in ensuring that our UISP studies in the three provinces were
successfully implemented.
World Bank team: Led by Arianna Legovini, and supported by Sebastian Martinez, Nandini Krishnan and
Aidan Coville who provided the technical support to the Department in respect of the impact evaluation.
Mr. Aidan Coville has been based in South Africa, working to guide the project and transferring skills in
the process in order to ensure that the studies were a success. Thank you to the World Bank team for
their invaluable technical assistance and support throughout the project.
Survey Firm (Vari Consulting): We appreciate the challenging work that was performed by Vari
Consulting. They have drawn a lot of experience from these studies and will surely broaden their scope
in this new field of conducting impact studies in the future.
External stakeholders: We furthermore express our sincere gratitude to our Provincial counterparts
who were instrumental in coordinating activities in their respective provinces and introducing us to the
municipalities, providing us with much needed support. Municipal and Provincial support came from (1)
Free State: Mr Radipholo Masike and Mr London (Mangaung Municipality), (2) Gauteng: Ms X. Mkhalali,
Mr Themba Nhlapo and Mr Robert Van Dyke (Ekurhuleni Municipality), (3) Limpopo: Mr L.H. Maphutha
and Mr M.L. Maremane (Polokwane Municipality). Finally we are extremely grateful and value the
support given by the community leaders - especially Councillors, Ward Committee members and, most
importantly, the communities from whom the data was collected. It must be mentioned that without
their co-operation and support these studies would not have been possible. Thank you!

ii
TABLE OF CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................. 1
1. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 6
1.1. Background ................................................................................................................................... 6
1.2. Motivation for the Study ............................................................................................................... 7
1.3. Objectives of the Study ................................................................................................................. 7
1.4. Monitoring and Evaluation ........................................................................................................... 7
1.5. Outline of the Report .................................................................................................................... 9
2. LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................................................... 10
2.1. Legislative Prescripts and Policies ............................................................................................... 10
The Constitution of the Republic of South Africa ............................................................................... 10
The Housing Act .................................................................................................................................. 10
The National Housing Code ................................................................................................................. 11
2.2. Upgrading of Informal Settlements Programme: A Primer ........................................................ 13
Objectives of the UISP ......................................................................................................................... 13
UISP principles and guidelines ............................................................................................................ 14
UISP Beneficiaries ............................................................................................................................... 15
2.3. Challenges with Housing Delivery ............................................................................................... 16
Rapid urbanisation .............................................................................................................................. 16
Population growth .............................................................................................................................. 17
Unemployment ................................................................................................................................... 17
2.4. Housing Programmes and their Effects ...................................................................................... 18
Housing ............................................................................................................................................... 18
Access to Services: Water, Sanitation and Electricity ......................................................................... 20
Relocation ........................................................................................................................................... 21
Tenure Security ................................................................................................................................... 22
3. PROJECT SITES ..................................................................................................................................... 24
3.1. Relocation in Limpopo. ............................................................................................................... 24
3.2. In Situ Upgrading in the Free State ............................................................................................. 25
3.3. Partial Upgrading in Gauteng ...................................................................................................... 26
4. METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................................................. 27

iii
4.1. Impact Evaluations ...................................................................................................................... 27
4.2. Study Design................................................................................................................................ 29
Limpopo Province ............................................................................................................................... 30
Free State Province ............................................................................................................................. 31
4.3. Sampling Methodology ............................................................................................................... 31
Identification of Sites .......................................................................................................................... 31
Developing the Sampling Frame ......................................................................................................... 32
Sample Sizes ........................................................................................................................................ 33
4.4. Household Questionnaire ........................................................................................................... 36
4.5. Quality Checks ............................................................................................................................. 37
4.6. Links between Indicators and Objectives ................................................................................... 38
5. INTERPRETING RESULTS ...................................................................................................................... 39
Model Specification and Statistical Techniques.................................................................................. 39
Statistical Significance ......................................................................................................................... 42
Guide to Interpretation ....................................................................................................................... 42
6. LIMPOPO RESULTS .............................................................................................................................. 45
6.1. Dwelling Characteristics .............................................................................................................. 45
Structure of Dwelling .......................................................................................................................... 45
Stand and Surrounding Area ............................................................................................................... 46
Access to Services ............................................................................................................................... 47
6.2. Household Composition .............................................................................................................. 50
6.3. Tenure Security ........................................................................................................................... 51
6.4. Satisfaction Levels ....................................................................................................................... 53
6.5. Social Cohesion ........................................................................................................................... 55
6.6. Crime and Security ...................................................................................................................... 58
6.7. Economic Activity ........................................................................................................................ 59
Income and Expenditure ..................................................................................................................... 60
Asset Accumulation............................................................................................................................. 62
Employment and Activities ................................................................................................................. 64
6.8. Education .................................................................................................................................... 67
6.9. Health .......................................................................................................................................... 68
7. FREE STATE RESULTS ........................................................................................................................... 69

iv
7.1. Dwelling Characteristics .............................................................................................................. 71
Structure of Dwelling .......................................................................................................................... 71
Stand and Surrounding Area ............................................................................................................... 72
Access to Services ............................................................................................................................... 73
7.2. Household Composition .............................................................................................................. 74
7.3. Tenure Security ........................................................................................................................... 75
7.4. Satisfaction Levels ....................................................................................................................... 76
7.5. Social Cohesion ........................................................................................................................... 77
7.6. Crime and Security ...................................................................................................................... 79
7.7. Economic Activity ........................................................................................................................ 80
Income and Expenditure ..................................................................................................................... 81
Asset Accumulation............................................................................................................................. 82
Employment and Activities ................................................................................................................. 83
7.8. Education .................................................................................................................................... 84
7.9. Health .......................................................................................................................................... 85
8. GAUTENG RESULTS ............................................................................................................................. 87
8.1. Services ....................................................................................................................................... 87
8.2. Demographics ............................................................................................................................. 88
8.3. Economic Activity ........................................................................................................................ 88
8.4. Crime ........................................................................................................................................... 89
8.5. Health .......................................................................................................................................... 90
9. ROBUSTNESS CHECKS AND CAVEATS .................................................................................................. 91
9.1. Robustness Checks ...................................................................................................................... 91
9.2. Caveats ........................................................................................................................................ 93
10. RECOMMENDATIONS.......................................................................................................................... 95
11. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................... 101
12. BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................................................. 103
13. APPENDIX 1: DEFINITIONS ................................................................................................................ 106
14. APPENDIX 3: OUTPUT TABLES ........................................................................................................... 111

v
TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Monitoring and evaluation framework.......................................................................................... 8
Figure 2: Aerial view of Disteneng and Ext 44 ............................................................................................ 24
Figure 3: Aerial view of Grasslands and Bloemside Phases ........................................................................ 25
Figure 4: Aerial view of Disteneng Informal Settlement ............................................................................. 30
Figure 5: Illustrative example of sampling groups for Limpopo ................................................................. 34
Figure 6: Probability chart ........................................................................................................................... 43
Figure 7: Limpopo - Structural characteristics ............................................................................................ 45
Figure 8: Typical Shack Dwellings in Disteneng .......................................................................................... 46
Figure 9: Poor road quality ......................................................................................................................... 47
Figure 10: Collecting water in Disteneng .................................................................................................... 48
Figure 11: Limpopo - Garbage disposal methods in control group ............................................................ 48
Figure 12: Limpopo - Source of lighting and cooking.................................................................................. 49
Figure 13: Limpopo - Distribution of household sizes ................................................................................ 51
Figure 14: Limpopo – Tenure-related outcomes ........................................................................................ 52
Figure 15: Limpopo - Significant differences in satisfaction levels ............................................................. 54
Figure 16: Limpopo - Reliance on neighbours ............................................................................................ 56
Figure 17: Limpopo - Awareness of Community Groups and Programmes ............................................... 57
Figure 18: Limpopo – Perception and actual crime rates ........................................................................... 59
Figure 19: Limpopo - Expenditure patterns ................................................................................................ 61
Figure 20: Limpopo - Prevalence of household appliances ........................................................................ 62
Figure 21: Limpopo - Unemployment and grant dependence ................................................................... 66
Figure 22: Limpopo - Morbidity rates by age .............................................................................................. 68
Figure 23: Free State - RDP houses in Grasslands II & III ............................................................................ 69
Figure 24: Free Sate – Bloemside ................................................................................................................ 70
Figure 25: Free State - Grasslands II & III .................................................................................................... 71
Figure 26: Free State - Probability of using the kitchen as a sleeping area ................................................ 72
Figure 27: Fencing around a shack .............................................................................................................. 72
Figure 28: Free State - Electricity use.......................................................................................................... 74
Figure 29: Free State - Tenure-based outcomes ......................................................................................... 76
Figure 30: Free State - Diverging satisfaction levels ................................................................................... 77
Figure 31: Free State - Similar satisfaction levels ....................................................................................... 77
Figure 32: Free State - Participation in community activities ..................................................................... 78
Figure 33: Free State - Reliance on neighbours .......................................................................................... 79
Figure 34: Free State - Perceptions of safety .............................................................................................. 79
Figure 35: Free State - Crime rates ............................................................................................................. 80
Figure 36: Free State - Expenditure patterns .............................................................................................. 82
Figure 37: Free State - Overview of assets .................................................................................................. 82
Figure 38: Free State - Household appliance accumulation over time ....................................................... 83
Figure 39: Free State - Employment and grant dependence ...................................................................... 84
Figure 40: Free State - Morbidity rates ....................................................................................................... 86

vi
Figure 41: Serviced Houses (Shacks and Upgraded Houses) in Chris Hani ................................................. 87
Figure 42: Gauteng - Household services ................................................................................................... 88
Figure 43: Gauteng - Government grants ................................................................................................... 89
Figure 44: Gauteng - Crime statistics .......................................................................................................... 89
Figure 45: Gauteng - Morbidity rates ......................................................................................................... 90

vii
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Overview of study areas and interventions .................................................................................. 32
Table 2: Sampling strategy for baseline and follow-up study ..................................................................... 34
Table 3: Household Questionnaire Indicators ............................................................................................ 36
Table 4: Example - Probability of having a flush toilet ............................................................................... 40
Table 5: Example of continuous variable output ........................................................................................ 43
Table 6: Access to services .......................................................................................................................... 44
Table 7: Limpopo - Overview of income and expenditure patterns ........................................................... 61
Table 8: Robustness check for household size and Government grant dependency ................................. 92
Table 9: Limpopo - Robustness check for asset accumulation ................................................................... 92
Table 10: Free State - Robustness check for asset accumulation (Grasslands II vs. Grasslands III)............ 93
Table 11: Breakdown of electricity, asset accumulation and household burglary ..................................... 97
Table 12: List of control variables ............................................................................................................. 111
Table 13: Limpopo - Dwelling characteristics ........................................................................................... 111
Table 14: Limpopo - Stand and surrounding area ..................................................................................... 112
Table 15: Limpopo - Access to services ..................................................................................................... 112
Table 16: Limpopo - Electricity use ........................................................................................................... 112
Table 17: Limpopo – Demographics ......................................................................................................... 113
Table 18: Limpopo - Tenure indicators ..................................................................................................... 113
Table 19: Limpopo - Satisfaction levels ..................................................................................................... 113
Table 20: Limpopo - Awareness and participation in community organisations ..................................... 114
Table 21: Limpopo - Reliance on neighbours ............................................................................................ 115
Table 22: Limpopo - Community outreach ............................................................................................... 115
Table 23: Limpopo - Crime indicators ....................................................................................................... 115
Table 24: Limpopo - Income and expenditure patterns ........................................................................... 116
Table 25: Limpopo – Assets ...................................................................................................................... 118
Table 26: Limpopo - Borrowing activities ................................................................................................. 119
Table 27: Limpopo - Employment and other activities ............................................................................. 119
Table 28: Limpopo – Education ................................................................................................................. 120
Table 29: Limpopo - Health ....................................................................................................................... 121
Table 30: Free State - Dwelling characteristics ......................................................................................... 122
Table 31: Free State - Stand and surrounding area .................................................................................. 122
Table 32: Free State - Access to services .................................................................................................. 123
Table 33: Free State - Electricity use ......................................................................................................... 123
Table 34: Free State – Demographics ....................................................................................................... 124
Table 35: Free State - Tenure indicators ................................................................................................... 124
Table 36: Free State - Satisfaction levels .................................................................................................. 125
Table 37: Free State - Awareness and participation in community organisations ................................... 126
Table 38: Free State - Reliance on neighbours ......................................................................................... 127
Table 39: Free State - Community outreach ............................................................................................. 128
Table 40: Free State - Crime indicators ..................................................................................................... 128

viii
Table 41: Free State - Income and expenditure patterns ......................................................................... 129
Table 42: Free State - Assets ..................................................................................................................... 132
Table 43: Free State - Borrowing activities ............................................................................................... 133
Table 44: Free State - Employment and other activities .......................................................................... 134
Table 45: Free State – Education .............................................................................................................. 135
Table 46: Free State - Health .................................................................................................................... 136
Table 47: Gauteng - Demographics ........................................................................................................... 138
Table 48: Gauteng - Economic indicators ................................................................................................. 138
Table 49: Gauteng - Health ....................................................................................................................... 138
Table 50: Gauteng - Services ..................................................................................................................... 139
Table 51: Gauteng - Education and Crime ................................................................................................ 139

ix
ACRONYMS
AIDS Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome
ANC African National Congress
BNG Breaking New Ground
COHRE Centre on Housing Right and Evictions
DORA Division of Revenue Act
DWAF Department of Water Affairs
ECD Early Childhood Development
EPWP Expanded Public Works Programme
HIV Human Immune Virus
IDP Integrated Development Plan
IE Impact Evaluation
ITT Intention to Treat
LPM Linear Probability Model
M&E Monitoring and Evaluation
MDG Millennium Development Goals
MEC Member of the Executive Committee
NDOHS National Department of Human Settlements
PHP People’s Housing Process
PLM Project Level Monitoring
RDP Reconstruction and Development Programme
RICA Regulation of Interception of Communication Act
SAPS South African Police Service
TOT Treatment on the Treated
UISP Upgrading of Informal Settlements Programme
UN United Nations

x