ebook img

Martin Ford - "The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and PDF

264 Pages·2015·1.52 MB·English
Save to my drive
Quick download
Download
Most books are stored in the elastic cloud where traffic is expensive. For this reason, we have a limit on daily download.

Preview Martin Ford - "The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and

T L HE IGHTS IN T THE UNNEL A new book by Martin Ford Coming in May 2015 from Basic Books Hardcover/eBook/Audio Book Pre-order at Amazon.com ADVANCE PRAISE FOR RISE OF THE ROBOTS “Martin Ford’s Rise of the Robots is a very important, timely, and well-informed book. Smart machines, ar- tificial intelligence, nanotechnology, and the “Internet of things” are transforming every sector of the econ- omy. Machines can outperform workers in a rapidly widening arc of activities. Will smart machines lead to a world of plenty, leisure, health care, and education for all; or to a world of inequality, mass unemploy- ment, and a war between the haves and have-nots, and between the machines and the workers left be- hind? Ford doesn’t claim to have all of the answers, but he asks the right questions and offers a highly informed and panoramic view of the debate. This is an excellent book that offers us a sophisticated glimpse into our possible futures.” —Jeffrey D. Sachs, Director of the Earth Insti- tute, Columbia University and author of The Age of Sustainable Development “It's not easy to accept, but it's true. Education and hard work will no longer guarantee success for huge numbers of people as technology advances. The time for denial is over. Now it's time to consider solutions and there are very few proposals on the table. Rise of the Robots presents one idea, the basic income mod- el, with clarity and force. No one who cares about the future of human dignity can afford to skip this book.” —Jaron Lanier, author of You Are Not a Gadg- et and Who Owns the Future? “Ever since the Luddites, pessimists have believed that technology would destroy jobs. So far they have been wrong. Martin Ford shows with great clarity why today's automated technology will be much more de- structive of jobs than previous technological innova- tion. This is a book that everyone concerned with the future of work must read.” —Lord Robert Skidelsky, Emeritus Professor of Political Economy at the University of Warwick, co-author of How Much Is Enough?: Money and the Good Life and author of the three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes “Martin Ford has thrust himself into the center of the Copyrighted Material – Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon debate over AI, big data, and the future of the econ- omy with a shrewd look at the forces shaping our lives and work. As an entrepreneur pioneering many of the trends he uncovers, he speaks with special credibility, insight, and verve. Business people, policy makers, and professionals of all sorts should read this book right away—before the 'bots steal their jobs. Ford gives us a roadmap to the future.” —Kenneth Cukier, Data Editor for the Economist and co-author of Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think “If the robots are coming for my job (too), then Mar- tin Ford is the person I want on my side, not to fend them off but to construct a better world where we can all—humans and our machines—live more prosper- ously together. Rise of the Robots goes far beyond the usual fear-mongering punditry to suggest an ac- tion plan for a better future.” —Cathy N. Davidson, Distinguished Professor and Director, The Futures Initiative, The Gradu- ate Center, CUNY and author of Now You See It: How the Brain Science of Attention Will Trans- form the Way We Live, Work, and Learn What are the jobs of the future? How many will there be? And who will have them? We might imagine—and hope— that today’s industrial revolution will unfold like the last: even as some jobs are eliminated, more will be created to deal with the new innovations of a new era. In Rise of the Robots, Silicon Valley entrepreneur Martin Ford argues that this is absolutely not the case. As technology continues to accelerate and machines begin taking care of themselves, fewer people will be necessary. Artificial intelligence is already well on its way to making “good jobs” obsolete: many paralegals, jour- nalists, office workers, and even computer programmers are poised to be replaced by robots and smart software. As pro- gress continues, blue and white collar jobs alike will evapo- rate, squeezing working- and middle-class families ever fur- ther. At the same time, households are under assault from exploding costs, especially from the two major industries— education and health care—that, so far, have not been trans- formed by information technology. The result could well be massive unemployment and inequality as well as the implo- sion of the consumer economy itself. In Rise of the Robots, Ford details what machine intelligence and robotics can accomplish, and implores employers, schol- ars, and policy makers alike to face the implications. The past solutions to technological disruption, especially more training and education, aren’t going to work, and we must decide, now, whether the future will see broad-based prosperity or catastrophic levels of inequality and economic insecuri- ty. Rise of the Robots is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand what accelerating technology means for their own economic prospects—not to mention those of their children—as well as for society as a whole. Rise of the Robots Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future Pre-order at Amazon.com Copyrighted Material – Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon T L HE IGHTS IN T THE UNNEL A A UTOMATION, CCELERATING T ECHNOLOGY AND THE E F CONOMY OF THE UTURE Martin Ford Copyright © 2009 by Martin R. Ford All Rights Reserved, including the right of reproduction in whole or in part in any form. Published in the United States by Acculant™ Publishing. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Ford, Martin R. The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and the Economy of the Future / Martin Ford p. cm. Includes bibliographical references ISBN-10 1-4486-5981-7 ISBN-13 978-1-4486-5981-4 1. Economics—Future Trends 2. Economics—Impact of Advanced Technology on 3. Artificial Intelligence and Robotics 4. Computer Technology and Civilization 5. Technological Unemployment I. Title The scanning, uploading and distribution of this book via the Internet without the permission of the publisher is illegal. Please purchase only authorized electronic editions. Your support of the author’s rights is appreciated. This book is available for purchase in paper and electronic formats at: www.TheLightsintheTunnel.com Printed in the United States of America. Copyrighted Material – Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon C ONTENTS Introduction 1 Chapter 1: The Tunnel 7 The Mass Market 10 Visualizing the Mass Market 11 Automation Comes to the Tunnel 17 A Reality Check 21 Summarizing 24 Chapter 2: Acceleration 27 The Rich Get Richer 28 World Computational Capability 39 Grid and Cloud Computing 41 Meltdown 43 Diminishing Returns 47 Offshoring and Drive-Through Banking 54 Short Lived Jobs 57 Traditional Jobs: The “Average” Lights in the Tunnel 58 A Tale of Two Jobs 63 “Software” Jobs and Artificial Intelligence 67 Automation, Offshoring and Small Business 73 “Hardware” Jobs and Robotics 75 “Interface” Jobs 80 The Next “Killer App” 81 Military Robotics 85 Robotics and Offshoring 86 Nanotechnology and its Impact on Employment 87 The Future of College Education 89 Econometrics: Looking Backward 93 The Luddite Fallacy 95 viii Contents A More Ambitious View of Future Technological Progress: The Singularity 100 A War on Technology 103 Chapter 3: Danger 107 The Predictive Nature of Markets 107 The 2008-2009 Recession 110 Offshoring and Factory Migration 113 Reconsidering Conventional Views about the Future 115 The China Fallacy 117 The Future of Manufacturing 124 India and Offshoring 127 Economic and National Security Implications for the United States 128 Solutions 131 Labor and Capital Intensive Industries: The Tipping Point 131 The Average Worker and the Average Machine 135 Capital Intensive Industries are “Free Riders” 138 The Problem with Payroll Taxes 140 The “Workerless” Payroll Tax 142 “Progressive” Wage Deductions 144 Defeating the Lobbyists 146 A More Conventional View of the Future 149 The Risk of Inaction 153 Chapter 4: Transition 156 The Basis of the Free Market Economy: Incentives 158 Preserving the Market 159 Recapturing Wages 162 Positive Aspects of Jobs 168 The Power of Inequality 169 Where the Free Market Fails: Externalities 170 Copyrighted Material – Paperback/Kindle available @ Amazon THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL Creating a Virtual Job 172 Smoothing the Business Cycle and Reducing Economic Risk 179 The Market Economy of the Future 180 An International View 183 Transitioning to the New Model 185 Keynesian Grandchildren 189 Transition in the Tunnel 192 Chapter 5: The Green Light 194 Attacking Poverty 196 Fundamental Economic Constraints 201 Removing the Constraints 202 The Evolution toward Consumption 204 The Green Light 207 Appendix / Final Thoughts 209 Are the ideas presented in this book WRONG? (Opposing arguments with responses) 210 Two Questions Worth Thinking About 223 Where are we now? Four Possible Cases 224 The Next 10-20 years: Some Indicators to Watch for 227 Outsmarting Marx 237 The Technology Paradox 239 Machine Intelligence and the Turing Test 241 About / Contacting the Author 247 Notes 248 x

See more

The list of books you might like

Most books are stored in the elastic cloud where traffic is expensive. For this reason, we have a limit on daily download.