Martin Ford - "The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and

264 Pages·2015·1.52 MB·English

by  Martin R. Ford

T L
HE IGHTS IN
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A new book by Martin Ford

Coming in May 2015 from Basic Books

Hardcover/eBook/Audio Book

Pre-order at Amazon.com

ADVANCE PRAISE FOR RISE OF THE ROBOTS

“Martin Ford’s Rise of the Robots is a very important,
timely, and well-informed book. Smart machines, ar-
tificial intelligence, nanotechnology, and the “Internet
of things” are transforming every sector of the econ-
omy. Machines can outperform workers in a rapidly
widening arc of activities. Will smart machines lead to
a world of plenty, leisure, health care, and education
for all; or to a world of inequality, mass unemploy-
ment, and a war between the haves and have-nots,
and between the machines and the workers left be-
hind? Ford doesn’t claim to have all of the answers,
but he asks the right questions and offers a highly
informed and panoramic view of the debate. This is
an excellent book that offers us a sophisticated
glimpse into our possible futures.”
—Jeffrey D. Sachs, Director of the Earth Insti-
tute, Columbia University and author of The Age
of Sustainable Development

“It's not easy to accept, but it's true. Education and
hard work will no longer guarantee success for huge
numbers of people as technology advances. The time
for denial is over. Now it's time to consider solutions
and there are very few proposals on the table. Rise of
the Robots presents one idea, the basic income mod-
el, with clarity and force. No one who cares about the
future of human dignity can afford to skip this book.”
—Jaron Lanier, author of You Are Not a Gadg-
et and Who Owns the Future?

“Ever since the Luddites, pessimists have believed
that technology would destroy jobs. So far they have
been wrong. Martin Ford shows with great clarity why
today's automated technology will be much more de-
structive of jobs than previous technological innova-
tion. This is a book that everyone concerned with the
future of work must read.”
—Lord Robert Skidelsky, Emeritus Professor of
Political Economy at the University of Warwick,
co-author of How Much Is Enough?: Money and
the Good Life and author of the three-volume
biography of John Maynard Keynes

“Martin Ford has thrust himself into the center of the
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debate over AI, big data, and the future of the econ-
omy with a shrewd look at the forces shaping our
lives and work. As an entrepreneur pioneering many
of the trends he uncovers, he speaks with special
credibility, insight, and verve. Business people, policy
makers, and professionals of all sorts should read this
book right away—before the 'bots steal their jobs.
Ford gives us a roadmap to the future.”
—Kenneth Cukier, Data Editor for
the Economist and co-author of Big Data: A
Revolution That Will Transform How We Live,
Work, and Think

“If the robots are coming for my job (too), then Mar-
tin Ford is the person I want on my side, not to fend
them off but to construct a better world where we can
all—humans and our machines—live more prosper-
ously together. Rise of the Robots goes far beyond
the usual fear-mongering punditry to suggest an ac-
tion plan for a better future.”
—Cathy N. Davidson, Distinguished Professor
and Director, The Futures Initiative, The Gradu-
ate Center, CUNY and author of Now You See It:
How the Brain Science of Attention Will Trans-
form the Way We Live, Work, and Learn

What are the jobs of the future? How many will there be?
And who will have them? We might imagine—and hope—
that today’s industrial revolution will unfold like the last:
even as some jobs are eliminated, more will be created to deal
with the new innovations of a new era. In Rise of the Robots,
Silicon Valley entrepreneur Martin Ford argues that this is
absolutely not the case. As technology continues to accelerate
and machines begin taking care of themselves, fewer people
will be necessary. Artificial intelligence is already well on its
way to making “good jobs” obsolete: many paralegals, jour-
nalists, office workers, and even computer programmers are
poised to be replaced by robots and smart software. As pro-
gress continues, blue and white collar jobs alike will evapo-
rate, squeezing working- and middle-class families ever fur-
ther. At the same time, households are under assault from
exploding costs, especially from the two major industries—
education and health care—that, so far, have not been trans-
formed by information technology. The result could well be
massive unemployment and inequality as well as the implo-
sion of the consumer economy itself.

In Rise of the Robots, Ford details what machine intelligence
and robotics can accomplish, and implores employers, schol-
ars, and policy makers alike to face the implications. The past
solutions to technological disruption, especially more training
and education, aren’t going to work, and we must decide,
now, whether the future will see broad-based prosperity or
catastrophic levels of inequality and economic insecuri-
ty. Rise of the Robots is essential reading for anyone who
wants to understand what accelerating technology means for
their own economic prospects—not to mention those of their
children—as well as for society as a whole.

Rise of the Robots
Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future
Pre-order at Amazon.com

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T L
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A A
UTOMATION, CCELERATING
T
ECHNOLOGY AND THE
E F
CONOMY OF THE UTURE

Martin Ford
Copyright © 2009 by Martin R. Ford

All Rights Reserved,
including the right of reproduction
in whole or in part in any form.

Published in the United States by Acculant™ Publishing.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Ford, Martin R.
The Lights in the Tunnel: Automation, Accelerating Technology and
the Economy of the Future / Martin Ford
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references
ISBN-10 1-4486-5981-7
ISBN-13 978-1-4486-5981-4
1. Economics—Future Trends 2. Economics—Impact of Advanced
Technology on 3. Artificial Intelligence and Robotics 4. Computer
Technology and Civilization 5. Technological Unemployment I. Title

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without the permission of the publisher is illegal. Please purchase only
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appreciated.

This book is available for purchase in paper and electronic formats at:

www.TheLightsintheTunnel.com

Printed in the United States of America.

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C
ONTENTS

Introduction 1
Chapter 1: The Tunnel 7
The Mass Market 10
Visualizing the Mass Market 11
Automation Comes to the Tunnel 17
A Reality Check 21
Summarizing 24
Chapter 2: Acceleration 27
The Rich Get Richer 28
World Computational Capability 39
Grid and Cloud Computing 41
Meltdown 43
Diminishing Returns 47
Offshoring and Drive-Through Banking 54
Short Lived Jobs 57
Traditional Jobs: The “Average” Lights in the Tunnel 58
A Tale of Two Jobs 63
“Software” Jobs and Artificial Intelligence 67
Automation, Offshoring and Small Business 73
“Hardware” Jobs and Robotics 75
“Interface” Jobs 80
The Next “Killer App” 81
Military Robotics 85
Robotics and Offshoring 86
Nanotechnology and its Impact on Employment 87
The Future of College Education 89
Econometrics: Looking Backward 93
The Luddite Fallacy 95
viii
Contents

A More Ambitious View of Future
Technological Progress: The Singularity 100
A War on Technology 103
Chapter 3: Danger 107
The Predictive Nature of Markets 107
The 2008-2009 Recession 110
Offshoring and Factory Migration 113
Reconsidering Conventional Views about the Future 115
The China Fallacy 117
The Future of Manufacturing 124
India and Offshoring 127
Economic and National Security Implications
for the United States 128
Solutions 131
Labor and Capital Intensive Industries:
The Tipping Point 131
The Average Worker and the Average Machine 135
Capital Intensive Industries are “Free Riders” 138
The Problem with Payroll Taxes 140
The “Workerless” Payroll Tax 142
“Progressive” Wage Deductions 144
Defeating the Lobbyists 146
A More Conventional View of the Future 149
The Risk of Inaction 153
Chapter 4: Transition 156
The Basis of the Free Market Economy: Incentives 158
Preserving the Market 159
Recapturing Wages 162
Positive Aspects of Jobs 168
The Power of Inequality 169
Where the Free Market Fails: Externalities 170
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THE LIGHTS IN THE TUNNEL

Creating a Virtual Job 172
Smoothing the Business Cycle and Reducing
Economic Risk 179
The Market Economy of the Future 180
An International View 183
Transitioning to the New Model 185
Keynesian Grandchildren 189
Transition in the Tunnel 192
Chapter 5: The Green Light 194
Attacking Poverty 196
Fundamental Economic Constraints 201
Removing the Constraints 202
The Evolution toward Consumption 204
The Green Light 207
Appendix / Final Thoughts 209
Are the ideas presented in this book WRONG?
(Opposing arguments with responses) 210
Two Questions Worth Thinking About 223
Where are we now? Four Possible Cases 224
The Next 10-20 years: Some Indicators to Watch for 227
Outsmarting Marx 237
The Technology Paradox 239
Machine Intelligence and the Turing Test 241
About / Contacting the Author 247
Notes 248
x