Major transport infrastructure projects and economic development.

139 Pages·2014·2.559 MB·English

by  OECD

Major Transport Infrastructure Projects M
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and Economic Development r
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This report discusses the state of the art in understanding the economic effects of t
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major transport infrastructure projects. It examines the limits of socio-economic cost- f
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benefit analysis (CBA) and reviews the development of complementary and alternative st
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approaches to assessing the benefits of investment in large, transformative projects. c
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CBA has proved a reliable tool for ranking projects that are similar and for assessing P
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investments that make marginal improvements to the transport system. It is much o
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less suited to projects designed to transform the economy or for comparing transport t
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investments designed to enhance regional economic productivity with non-transport n
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uses of public funds to promote growth. In particular CBA does not capture all the E
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wider benefits of transport investments, notably agglomeration effects and responses n
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in labour markets to improved access to jobs. At the same time, the benefits of
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investment can be communicated with most audiences much more effectively in terms D
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of impacts on jobs and GDP than time savings and net socio-economic welfare benefits e
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–the language of CBA. p
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For all these reasons attention in many jurisdictions is focusing on examining wider t
economic effects, in addition to standard project appraisal. The microeconomic Major Transport
and macroeconomic tools available to do this have improved markedly in the last
154
decade but are far from mature and require significant resources. For large public
Infrastructure Projects and
investments, particularly where projects are designed to drive development and
transform productivity rather than simply release bottlenecks in the existing transport
Economic Development
network, the additional evaluation effort is worthwhile and critical to identifying the mit
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full value of the project. This report focuses on practical appraisal tools developed for Za
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assessment of the Grand Paris super-metro and London’s Crossrail project. er: Jo Ro Roundtable Report
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Major Transport
115543
Infrastructure Projects and
Economic Development
Roundtable Report
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Pleasecitethispublicationas:
OECD/ITF(2014),MajorTransportInfrastructureProjectsandEconomicDevelopment,ITFRoundTables,
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http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789282107720-en
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INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT FORUM
The International Transport Forum at the OECD is an intergovernmental organisation with
54 member countries. It acts as a strategic think tank with the objective of helping shape the transport
policy agenda on a global level and ensuring that it contributes to economic growth, environmental
protection, social inclusion and the preservation of human life and well-being. The International
Transport Forum organizes an annual summit of Ministers along with leading representatives from
industry, civil society and academia.
The International Transport Forum was created under a Declaration issued by the Council of
Ministers of the ECMT (European Conference of Ministers of Transport) at its Ministerial Session in
May 2006 under the legal authority of the Protocol of the ECMT, signed in Brussels on 17 October
1953, and legal instruments of the OECD.
The Members of the Forum are: Albania, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus,
Belgium, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Croatia, the Czech Republic,
Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, FYROM, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, India,
Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Mexico, Moldova,
Montenegro, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Serbia,
Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom and the United
States.
The International Transport Forum’s Research Centre gathers statistics and conducts co-operative
research programmes addressing all modes of transport. Its findings are widely disseminated and
support policymaking in Member countries as well as contributing to the annual summit.

Further information about the International Transport Forum is available at
www.internationaltransportforum.org

This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to
the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

TABLE OF CONTENTS – 5
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................. 7

1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 9
2. Greater Paris and Crossrail: Characteristics and approaches to appraisal ..................................... 11
3. Difficulties with appraisal of major projects and emerging solutions ........................................... 17
4. Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 23
Notes ...................................................................................................................................................... 25
Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................... 26

Chapter 1 The Evolution of London’s Crossrail Scheme
by Tom Worsley (United Kingdom) ................................................................................ 29

1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 31
2. The development of London’s rail passenger network, 1835-1960 ............................................... 31
3. Transport appraisal methods in the UK, 1965-2000 ...................................................................... 33
4. Options for increasing London’s rail capacity ............................................................................... 34
5. Developments in appraisal methods – Widening the scope ........................................................... 37
6. Wider economic benefits and Crossrail ......................................................................................... 45
7. Alternative metrics to the welfare approach .................................................................................. 50
8. Evidence of wider economic benefits; Ex-post evaluation ............................................................ 55
9. Conclusions .................................................................................................................................... 56
Annex 1.A1 ............................................................................................................................................ 59
References ............................................................................................................................................. 60

Chapter 2 The Greater Paris Metro Project: Characteristics and Challenges
by Jean-Claude Prager (France) ................................................................................ 63

1. The large scale of the planned investments ................................................................................... 65
2. The Greater Paris project is also a major development project ..................................................... 65
3. The challenge: adapting evaluation methods to a large-scale project ............................................ 66

Chapter 3 The Grand Paris Project: Tools and Challenges
by André de Palma (France) ..................................................................................... 71

1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................... 73
2. Modelling large urban systems ...................................................................................................... 74
3. The non-linear models approach ................................................................................................... 76
4. Setting the parameters of Grand Paris studies .............................................................................. 80
5. Agglomeration effects ................................................................................................................... 87
MAJOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT © OECD/ITF 2014
6 – TABLE OF CONTENTS
6. Econometric precautions ............................................................................................................... 89
7. Conclusions ................................................................................................................................... 91
Notes ...................................................................................................................................................... 93
Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................... 95

Chapter 4 Maintained Hypotheses and Questions in Search of Answers
by Marc Gaudry (Canada) and Emile Quinet (France) .................................................... 99

1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 101
2. Demand models ........................................................................................................................... 102
3. Effect on the agglomeration as a whole ....................................................................................... 108
4. Appraisal ...................................................................................................................................... 111
5. Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 114
Annex 4.A1 .......................................................................................................................................... 115
Notes .................................................................................................................................................... 117
Bibliography ........................................................................................................................................ 119

List of Participants ............................................................................................................................ 124

MAJOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT © OECD/ITF 2014
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – 7

Executive Summary
Major Transport Infrastructure Projects and
Economic Development:

Assessment and Implementation
MAJOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT © OECD/ITF 2014