Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk Analysis: Issues, Methods, and Case Studies

561 Pages·1984·18.84 MB·English

by  J. W. Minarick, C. A. Kukielka (auth.), Ray A. Waller, Vincent T. Covello (eds.)

Low-Probability
High-Consequence
Risk Analysis
Issues, Methods, and Case Studies
ADVANCES IN RISK ANALYSIS
This series is edited by the Society for Risk Analysis.
Volume 1 THE ANALYSIS OF ACTUAL VERSUS PERCEIVED RISKS
Edited by Vincent T. Covello, W. Gary F1amm,
Joseph V. Rodricks, and Robert G. Tardiff
Volume 2 LOW-PROBABILITY IHIGH-CONSEQUENCE
RISK ANALYSIS
Issues, Methods, and Case Studies
Edited by Ray A. Waller and Vincent T. Covello
A Continuation Order Plan is available for this series. A continuation order will bring
delivery of each new volume immediately upon publication. Volumes are billed only
upon actual shipment. For further information please contact the publisher.
Low-Probability
High-Consequence
Risk Analysis
Issues, Methods, and Case Studies
Edited by
Ray A. Waller
Los Alamos National Laboratory
Los Alamos, New Mexico
and
Vincent T. Covello
u.s. Nationdl Science Foundation
Washington, D.C.
Contributing Editors
Lee Abramson,
u.s. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Maurice Bryson,
Los Alamos National Laboratory
George F1anagan,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
v. R. R. Uppuluri,
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Springer Science+Business Media, LLC
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
Main entry under title:
Low-probability/high-consequence risk analysis.
(Advances in risk analysis; v. 2)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Technology assessment—Addresses, essays, lectures. 2. Risk—Addresses,,
essays, lectures. I. Waller, Ray A. I I . Covello, Vincent T. HI. Series.
T174.5.L69 1984 363.3'4 84-1509
ISBN 978-1-4757-1820-1 ISBN 978-1-4757-1818-8 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-1-4757-1818-8
© 1984 Springer Science+Business Media New York
Originally published by Plenum Press, New York in 1984
Softcover reprint of the hardcoverlst edition 1984
All rights reserved
No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted
in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming,
recording, or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher
PREFACE
In recent years public attention has focused on an array of
low-probability/high-consequence (LC/HC) events that pose a signif-
icant threat to human health, safety, and the environment. At the
same time, public and private sector responsibilities for the
assessment and management of such events have grown because of a
perceived need to anticipate, prevent, or reduce the risks. In
attempting to meet these responsibilities, legislative, judicial,
regulatory, and private sector institutions have had to deal with
the extraordinarily complex problem of assessing and balancing LP/
HC risks against the costs and ben if its of risk reduction.
The need to help society cope with LP/HC events such as nuclear
power plant accidents, toxic spills, chemical plant explosions, and
transportation accidents has given rise to the development of a new
intellectual endeavor: LP/HC risk analysis. The scope and complexity
of these analyses require a high degree of cooperative effort on the
part of specialists from many f~elds. Analyzing technical, social,
and value issues requires the efforts of physicists, biologists,
geneticists, statisticians, chemists, engineers, political scientists,
sociologists, decision analysts, management scientists, economists,
psychologists, ethicists, lawyers, and policy analysts.
Included in this volume are papers by authors in each of these
disciplines. The papers share in common a focus on one or more of
the following questions that are generic to the analysis of LP/HC
risks.
• How good are the knowledge base and methods for estimating
LP/HC risks and uncertainties?
• How are estimates of LP/HC risks and uncertainties incorpo-
rated into decisionmaking?
• How do features of the institutional context affect decision-
making bodies concerned with LP/HC events?
• What factors influence individual perceptions of LP/HC risks?
v
PREFACE
• How are perceptions of LP/HC risks incorporated into public
~l~ia?
• How does society cope with LP/HC risks that are unacceptable
to some segments of the population?
• How are normative considerations such as equity and social
justice balanced in decisionmaking about LP/HC risks?
• What are the criteria for comparing and evaluating different
LP/HC risk analysis methods and risk management policies?
All contributions in this volume were presented at the Society
for Risk Analysis International Workshop on "Low-Probability/High-
Consequence Risk Analysis: Issues, Methods, and Case Studies," held
from June 15-17, 1982, in Washington, DC. The Society for Risk
Analysis, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the U.D. Depart-
ment of Energy. and the U.S. Environmental Protections Agency were
joint sponsors of the Workshop.
R. Waller and V. Covello
Editors
CONTENTS
SECTION I: Low-Consequence/High-Probability
Risk Analysis MOdels. 1
Introduction. • 1
J.B. Fussell
Precursors to Potential Severe Core Damage
Accidents: 1969-1979 ••••••••• 5
J.W. Minarick and C.A. Kukielka
MOdeling Rare Events: The Frequencies of Fires
in Nuclear Power Plants • " ••••• 33
M. Kazarians and G. Apostolakis
Flood Prediction with Casual Analysis 55
T.P. Ballestero, D.B. Simons, and R.M. Li
Methodology for Flood Risk Analysis for
Nuclear Power Plants •••••••••• 65
D.P. Wagner, M.L. Casada, and J.B. Fussell
Dam Failures: Insights to Nuclear Power Risks 81
W.L. Baldewicz
Trade-Off Between Expected Risk and the Potential
for Large Accidents • • • • • • • • • • 91
F. Niehaus, G. de Leon, and M. Cullingford
Models for the Use of Expert Opinions W7
A. Mosleh and G. Apostolakis
SECTION 2: Uncertainties Associated with Low-
Probability/High-Consequence Risk
Analysis Results. • •••• 125
Introduction •• 125
R.E. Barlow
viii CONTENTS
Bayesian Estimates for the Rate of Three Mile
Island Type Releases. • • • • • • • • • 127
P.G. Groer
An Incentive Approach to Eliciting Probabilities. • • • • •• 137
R.D. Schacter
Robust Risk Analysis: The Need for It in Nuclear
Probabilistic Risk Evaluations ••••••• 153
W.E. Vesely
A Kalman Filter Model for Determining Block
and Trickle SNM Losses. • • • • • • • 161
R.E. Barlow, M.J. Durst, and N.G. Smiriga
SECTION 3: Statistics in Low-Probability/High-
Consequence Risk Analysis 181
Introduction-Part 1 • • 4t • • • • 181
N.D. Singpurwalla
Introduction-Part 2 • 183
L. G. Abramson
Predicting Low-Probability/High-Consequence Events. • • • • • 187
H.F. Ma~tz and M.C. Bryson
Statistical Methods of Risk Assessment for
Energy Technology • • • • • • • • • • 201
K.G. Vohra
SECTION 4: Case Studies of Recent Risk Analyses 217
Introduction. • 217
N. Rasmussen and M.C. Bryson
Lessons Learned from First-Generation Nuclear
Plant Probabilistic Risk Assessments •• 221
B.J. Garrick
Use of Risk Analysis Methods in LNG Inductry. 239
P.J. Pelto
State-of-the-Art of Risk Assessment of Chemical
Plants in Europe. • • • • • • • • • • • • 257
R.A. Cox and D.H. Slater
Risk Assessment at the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. • • • • 285
D.K. Rathbun
CONTENTS ix
SECTION 5: Quantification of Human Error
in LP/HC Risk Analysis. • ••• • 293
Introduction • •• 293
A.D. Swain
Human Reliability Analysis: A Case Study • • • • • • • • • •• 297
B.J. Bell
Quantification of Human Performance Through the Use
of Nuclear Power Plant Experience. • • • • • • • • • • • 309
R.E. Hall
Alternative Approaches to Human Reliability
.Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 319
D. Meister
SECTION 6: Legal Issues and Regulatory
Decision-Making in Low-Probability/
High-Consequence Risk Analysis. • 335
Introduction • • • • • • • • 335
M. Baram and D. Okrent
Catastrophic Loss Risks: An Economic and Legal
Analysis, and a Model State Statute. • • • • • • • • • • 337
M.B. Meyer
Compensation Issues Related to LP/HC Events: The
Case of Toxic Chemicals.. • • •• • •••••• 361
S. Jasanoff
Risk Analysis in the United States Law:
Cost Versus Risk • • • • • • • • • • • . • • • • • • • • 373
P. Ricci and L. Molton
High-Consequence Analysis, Evaluation, and Application
of Select Criteria • •• • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 393
I. Gutmanis and J.A. Jaksch
Management Systems for Low-Probabi1ity/High-
Consequence Events • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 425
R. Zimmerman
The Statutory Basis of Risk Assessment • • • • • • • • • • • • 455
F.A. Morris and E. Duvernoy