Live Longer, Work Longer? PDF
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䱩癥⁌潮来爬⁗潲欠䱯湧敲㼠䕶楤敮捥牯洠卷敤敮鉳⁁来楮朠偯灵污瑩潮 Qi, Haodong 2016 Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Qi, H. (2016). Live Longer, Work Longer? Evidence from Sweden’s Ageing Population. Department of Economic History, Lund University. 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LUND UNIVERSITY PO Box 117 221 00 Lund +46 46-222 00 00 OBS! Använd alltid samma storlekar på texten som ligger i formatmallarna ingA undAntAg denna serie ska alltid ha ett sammandrag på baksidan, streckkod och läggas upp till försäljning Ändra inga placeringar på textena, mer än förfyttning efter ryggbredden. Haodong Qi Live Longer, Work Longer? Live Longer, Work Longer? Evidence from Sweden’s Ageing Population Evidence from Sweden’s Ageing Sweden’s elderly population is growing, propelled by a continuous decline in old-age mortality, while coupled with a persistent replacement level fertility. this changing Population age structure increases the per worker cost of providing a given age-vector of per capita benefts, encompassing costs for pensions, health care, and all other type of old-age welfare services, which presents a looming challenge for the welfare state to sustain its social transfer system. options for tackling this daunting challenge, such as increasing fertility and immigration levels, cutting benefts and growing public debts, present numerous obstacles, thus discussion of policy options has shifted the focus towards extending working life. this book contributes to this ongoing policy discus- sion by exploring the recent trends in labor supply, and investigating the underlying mechanisms driving these trends. the results of this work ilustrate a recent trend of Haodong Qi prolonging working life in Sweden, whereby average labor income has increased at older ages, and younger cohorts have increasingly postponed their retirement. While these changes are uniform across individuals of different sexes, occupations, and edu- cational levels, the underlying mechanisms appear different. these micro mechanisms may have myriad implications concerning aggregate economic support for the ageing Swedish population. in this regard, the fndings in this book are relevant inputs for as- sessing the welfare consequences of population ageing and deriving evidence-based policy options. Lund StudiES in Economic HiStory 75 Distributed by media-tryck, Lund university Box 117, 221 00 Lund Live Longer, Work Longer? Evidence from Sweden’s Ageing Population by Haodong Qi DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Faculty opponent: Peder J. Pedersen by due permission of the School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Sweden To be defended at EC3:207 on Friday, March 4 2016 at 14:00. Organization Document name LUND UNIVERSITY DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Date of disputation Department of Economic History 2016-3-4 Box 7083 SE–220 07 LUND Sponsoring organization Sweden Author(s) Haodong Qi Title and subtitle Live Longer, Work Longer?Evidence from Sweden’s Ageing Population Abstract Sweden’s elderly population is growing, propelled by a continuous decline in old-age mortality, while coupled with a persistent replacement level fertility. Tis changing age structure increases the per worker cost of providing a given age-vector of per capita benefts, encompassing costs for pensions, health care, and all other type of old-age welfare services, which presents a looming challenge for the welfare state to sustain its social transfer system. Options for tackling this daunting challenge, such as increasing fertil- ity and immigration levels, cutting benefts and growing public debts, present numerous obstacles, thus discussion of policy options has shifted the focus towards extending working life. Tis book contributes to this ongoing policy discussion by exploring the recent trends in labor supply, and investigating the underlying mechanisms driving these trends. Te results of this work illustrate a recent trend of pro- longing working life in Sweden, whereby average labor income has increased at older ages, and younger cohorts have increasingly postponed their retirement. While these changes are uniform across individu- als of diferent sexes, occupations, and educational levels, the underlying mechanisms appear diferent. Tese micro mechanisms may have myriad implications concerning aggregate economic support for the ageing Swedish population. In this regard, the fndings in this book are relevant inputs for assessing the welfare consequences of population ageing and deriving evidence-based policy options. Key words Population Ageing, Pension Reform, Labor Supply, Working Life, Retirement Behavior, Employment, Financial Incentives Classifcation system and/or index terms (if any) H31, H55, I25, J18, J26 Supplementary bibliographical information Language English ISSN and key title ISBN 1400-4860 978-91-87793-22-6 (print) 978-91-87793-23-3 (pdf ) Recipient’s notes Number of pages Price 218 Security classifcation I, the undersigned, being the copyright owner of the abstract of the above-mentioned dissertation, hereby grant to all reference sources the permission to publish and disseminate the abstract of the above- mentioned dissertation. Signature Date 2016-1-28 Live Longer, Work Longer? Evidence from Sweden’s Ageing Population by Haodong Qi DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Faculty opponent: Peder J. Pedersen by due permission of the School of Economics and Management, Lund University, Sweden To be defended at EC3:207 on Friday, March 4 2016 at 14:00. Funding information: Te thesis work was fnancially supported by the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement No. 613247, the Department of Eco- nomic History, the Centre for Economic Demography, and the Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies at Lund University © Haodong Qi 2016 School of Economics and Management, Department of Economic History isbn: 978-91-87793-22-6 (print) isbn: 978-91-87793-23-3 (pdf ) issn: <1400-4860> Printed in Sweden by Media-Tryck, Lund University, Lund 2016 Dedicated to my parents Xiaowei Gao – Hongwu Qi Contents 1 Introduction 1 1 Motivation and Aim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 2 Ageing Demography in Sweden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 3 Economic Prospects of Population Ageing . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 4 Live Longer, Work Longer? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 5 Recent Pension Reforms in Sweden . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 6 Modelling Retirement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 7 Organization of the Tesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 8 Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 9 Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 10 Discussion and Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 2 Real Wage and Labor Supply in A Quasi Life-cycle Framework: A Macro Compression by SwedishNational Transfer Accounts (1985-2003) 45 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 2 A General Teory of Real Wage and Labor Supply - A Life-cycle Perspective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 3 A Macro Life-cycle Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 4 Data and Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 5 Results and Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 6 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 3 Retirement Behavior of Swedish Notch Babies 87 1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 2 A Framework for Tinking about Retirement . . . . . . . . . . 90 3 A Brief History of the Swedish Pension System . . . . . . . . . 92 4 Te Retirement Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 5 Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 6 Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 i
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