Link: How Decision Intelligence Connects Data, Actions, and Outcomes for a Better World

233 Pages·2019·7.591 MB·English

by  Lorien Pratt

LINK
Linkisanexerciseinabstraction,causality,andmodeling.Itis
aboutdiscoveringandmakingvisibleinterdependenciesincomplex
systems.Theauthordistillswhatshehaslearnedinpithyinsights.
Ittakesdiscipline.Youwon’tregretreadingthisbook.
(cid:1)VintCerf,InternetPioneer
Linkisthemissinglinktoourunderstandingofunintended
consequencesofmanyofourdecisionsandactions.Thisisabook
fortheages,movingbothtechnology(likeAI)andhumandecision
makingtothenextlevel.Mustread.
(cid:1)VRFerose,SVPandHeadofSAPAcademyforEngineering
Thereisanexplosiontodayintheimpacts,risks,andopportunities
ofmanydecisionsbyprivateorgovernmentalentitiesintendedto
impactfutureevents.Linkisaboutunderstandingthesedecisions
andcausalrelationships.Societaltransactionsareaccelerating:
manymorethaneverareintangible,andtherearesubstantial
complexitiescreatedbynewlydiscoveredinformationaswellasthe
resultingincreaseofglobalinterdependencies.Surveillance
capitalism,especiallyasenhancedbyAI,isalsoasubstantialrisk
today.Linkispartofthesolution:acrucialresourcetounderstand
causalchains,especiallywiththegoalofavoidingunintended
consequencesofdecisionsinvolvingdataandtechnology.
(cid:1)BillFenwick,PartnerEmeritus,Fenwick&WestLLP
LINK
How Decision Intelligence
Connects Data, Actions, and
Outcomes for a Better World
BY
LORIEN PRATT
UnitedKingdom(cid:1)NorthAmerica(cid:1)Japan(cid:1)India(cid:1)Malaysia(cid:1)China
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Forthefuture,CymbreandGriffinSmith
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CONTENTS
Foreword:AlexLamb xi
Introduction 1
1. GettingSeriousaboutDecisions 5
ShiftsinPerspective 6
TheDISolutionsRenaissance 6
HowDidWeGetHere:TheTechnologyHypeFeedbackLoop 10
TheCoreQuestion 11
LinkIsaboutDecisionIntelligence:AFocusingLensonComplexity 13
UnderstandingCause-and-effectLinks 16
Evidence-basedDecisionMaking:What’sBroken 20
WhoIsUsingDecisionIntelligence? 21
DecisionIntelligenceinPractice:ATechnology
TransformationExample 22
MakingtheInvisibleVisible 24
TheDIConsensus 27
Why“DecisionIntelligence?” 29
AboutMe 29
AboutLink 29
BookOverview 31
2. BreakingthroughtheComplexityCeiling 33
TheOriginsoftheCDD 41
HowWeInventedtheCDD 42
CDDExamples 44
CDDsasaFrameworkforIntegratingOtherTechnologies 44
TheCDD“Aha”Moment 49
ATelecomCustomerCareCDDExample 50
vii
viii Contents
DecisionsbeforeData 51
TheComplexityCeiling 52
BorrowingfromEngineering:SolutionstoComplexity 57
DecisionIntelligenceBridgesfromAI/MLTheorytoPractice 60
TheRightDecisioninaChangingContext 63
3. Technologies,Disciplines,andOtherPuzzlePiecesofthe
SolutionsRenaissance 65
TheWebofWickedProblems 65
BigData 67
WarmData 70
ArtificialIntelligenceandMachineLearning 72
CausalReasoning 79
Cybernetics 81
ComplexSystems/ComplexityTheory/ComplexityScience 82
Simulation,Optimization,Foresight,andOperationsResearch 83
InterdependenciesandtheWhack-a-mole 87
SystemDynamics,SystemsAnalysis,andSystemsThinking 89
TransferLearning 96
IntelligenceAugmentation(IA) 97
DecisionAnalysis 101
PopulatingLinks:AnalyticHierarchyProcessandSketchGraphs 101
DesignandDesignThinking 103
GameTheory 103
KnowledgeManagement 104
Statistics 106
Conclusion 107
4. HowtoBuildDecisionModels 109
ThisMaterialIsUsefulatMultipleLevels 109
WhoBenefitsfromDecisionModels? 111
DecisionModelingBenefits 112
SomeDecisionModelingExamples 113
DecisionIntelligenceandData 114
DivergentVersusConvergentThinking 115
BuildingaDecisionModel 116
Conclusion 135
Contents ix
ExamplesofDecisionIntelligenceDeployments 136
ClassicMistakes/BestPractices 146
5. ThePoweroftheDecisionModelFramework 155
DIasaMechanismforHuman/MachineCollaboration/
IntelligenceAugmentation(IA) 155
DIforEducation 156
DIasaTooltoSupportDecisionMakingand
OrganizationalInfluenceMappinginOrganizations/
CompaniesandGovernments 157
DIastheTechnologythatGluestheTechStacktothe
HumanStack 158
DIastheCoreofSoftwarethatIsBasedonWorldModels 159
DIasaLeadershipandManagementDiscipline 159
DIasaRiskManagementFramework 160
DIasanAnalysisFrameworkforAIEthicsandResponsibility 160
DIasaSoftwareEngineeringDisciplineforAI 161
DIasaContextLayerthatExtendsAItoNewUseCases 161
DIasaBreakthroughTechnologytoSolve“Wicked”Problems 161
DIasaWayofBetterUnderstandingPersonalDecisions:
IndividuallyandWithinOrganizations 162
DIasaMeetingDiscipline 162
DIasaGenerativeModelforChatbotsSupporting
DecisionMaking 162
DIastheBasisforaNewFormofDynamic“Wikipedia” 162
DIasaFoundationforJournalisminanAgeofComplexity 163
DIasaBusinessTrackingDiscipline 164
DIforGovernmentPlanning 164
DIforIntelligenceAnalysis 165
6. LookingtotheFuture 167
NewIdeas,NewDIEvangelists 168
TheHeadwindofDisruption 168
TheDIEcosystemTodayandTomorrow 170
EmergingDataScientistSpecialistRoles 172
DIandtheNewMythos 174
TheHumanElement 176