Land Use Simulation for Europe

306 Pages·2001·12.477 MB·English

by  John Stillwell, Henk Scholten (auth.), John Stillwell, Henk Scholten (eds.)

Land Use Simulation for Europe
The GeoJournal Library
Volume 63
Managing Editor: Max Barlow, Concordia University,
Montreal, Canada
Founding Series Editor:
Wolf Tietze, Helmstedt, Germany
Editorial Board: Paul Claval, France
R.G. Crane, U.S.A.
Yehuda Gradus, Israel
Risto Laulajainen, Sweden
Gerd UHtig, Germany
Walther Manshard, Germany
Osamu Nishikawa, Japan
Peter Tyson, South Africa
Herman van der Wusten, The Netherlands
The titles published in this series are listed at the end of this volume.
Land Use Simulation
for Europe
edited by
JOHN STILLWELL
Schoo/ of Geography,
University of Leeds,
UK
and
HENK SCHOLlEN
Department of Regional Economics,
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam,
The Netherlands
SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.V.
A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress
Additional material to this book can be downloaded from http://extras.springer.com.
ISBN 978-94-010-3895-9 ISBN 978-94-010-0466-4 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-94-010-0466-4
Cover illustration:
EuroScanner System structure. See also fig. 16.1.
This illustration has been provided courtesy of the Graphics Unit, University of Leeds.
Printed on acid-tree paper
All Rights Reserved
© 2001 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 2001
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2001
No part of the material protected by this copyright notice may be reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical,
including photocopying, recording or by any information storage and
retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of Figures Xl
List of Tables xv
Preface xvii
1 A Framework for European Land Use Simulation 1
John Stillwell and Henk Scholten
1.1 Introduction 1
1.2 The conceptual framework 2
1.3 Structure and content 5
PART I: POLICY PERSPECTIVES, DRIVING FORCES
AND DATA CONSIDERATIONS
2 The European Spatial Development
Perspective: Process, Policies and Consensus 15
Peter Ungar
2.1 Introduction 15
2.2 The evolution of the European Spatial Development Perspective 15
2.3 The need for co-operation on spatial development at the EU scale 18
2.4 The ESDP action programme 18
2.5 Co-operation in European spatial development: a matter of consent 20
2.6 Conclusion 22
3 European Spatial Planning: National and Regional Perspectives 25
Hans ten Velden and John Stillwell
3.1 Introduction 25
3.2 The need for European spatial planning 25
3.3 The European Spatial Development Perspective 28
3.4 Information and analysis imperative 29
3.5 Impacts of the ESDP at national and regional levels 30
3.6 Conclusion 35
4 Agriculture, Forestry and Nature:
Trends and Developments Across Europe 37
Arnold Bregt and Kees de Zeeuw
4.1 Introduction 37
4.2 Land use in Europe 37
4.3 Trends in agriculture, forestry and nature 37
v
VI
4.4 Influence of trends on the spatial environment 40
4.5 From trends to data and tools 41
4.6 Conclusions 43
5 The Projection of Population, Households,
Housing and Residential Land Use 45
John Stillwell and James Debenham
5.1 Introduction 45
5.2 Population projections for EU regions 46
5.3 National and sub-national population projections in the UK 52
5.4 National and sub-national household projections 56
5.5 Regional projections of housing and residential land requirements 59
5.6 Conclusions 61
6 The Land Market: A Spatial Economic Perspective 65
Joost Buurman, Piet Rietveld and Henk Scholten
6.1 Introduction 65
6.2 The land market 66
6.3 The spatial land market 74
6.4 Operational models 78
6.5 Conclusions 81
7 The Role of Remote Sensing Techniques for
European Land Use Database Construction 83
Henk Kramer and Sander Mucher
7.1 Introduction 83
7.2 A selection of important satellite sensors 83
7.3 Available European land cover databases 92
7.4 Land use database construction 95
7.5 Conclusions 97
8 Towards a European Spatial Metadata
Infrastructure to Facilitate Land Use Planning 101
Joana Abreu and Henk Scholten
8.1 Introduction 101
8.2 The requirements of a spatial data information infrastructure 102
8.3 The problems to access geographic information in Europe 103
8.4 Existing geographic information infrastructures 104
8.5 Towards the European Spatial Metadata Infrastructure 106
8.6 Providing direct access to the data via Web mapping 108
8.7 Conclusions 110
vii
PART II: MODELLING ENVIRONMENTAL AND HUMAN SYSTEMS
9 Land Cover Information for European Environmental Modelling 115
Jean-Paul Hettelingh, Maximilian Posch and Peter de Smet
9.1 Introduction 115
9.2 Modelling the European environment 116
9.3 The support of European acidification policies 117
9.4 The computation of critical loads and levels 118
9.5 Scientific collaboration for the mapping of critical loads and
levels in Europe 123
9.6 Conclusions and recommendations 124
10 Forecasting Global Climatic Change Impacts on Mediterranean
Agricultural Land Use in the Twenty First Century 127
Stan Openshaw and Andy Turner
10.1 Background and context 127
10.2 Building a Synoptic Prediction System 128
10.3 Assembling the data 130
10.4 Agricultural land use modelling 135
10.5 Translating agricultural land use changes into land degradation terms l37
10.6 Conclusions 139
11 Demography, Economy and Urbanization:
A Demo-Economic Regional Simulation Model 143
Leo van Wissen and Carina Huisman
ILl Introduction 143
11.2 Structure of the model 143
11.3 Demographic module 145
11.4 Labour supply 148
11.5 The economic module and labour demand 148
11.6 Urban land use 150
11.7 A number of illustrative outcomes of Decores 151
11.8 Conclusions 156
12 Interregional Migration and Land Use Pressure 159
Beatrice Eiselt, Nicla Giglioli and Robert Peckham
12.1 Introduction 159
12.2 Data and software 159
12.3 Cluster analysis 160
12.4 Migration modelling 163
12.5 Forecasting and simulation 165
12.6 Application to simulation of land use pressure 166
12.7 Conclusions 168
Vlll
PART III: EVALUATION AND VISUALISATION METHODS
13 Towards a Sustainable Future of Cities in Europe:
An Evaluation of Sustainable City Initiatives
Using Multicriteria Decision Support Methods 173
Adele Finco and Peter Nijkamp
13.1 Setting the scene 173
13.2 Planning for urban sustainability 175
13.3 Decision support methods for urban sustainability policy 178
13.4 The case study area 181
13.5 Multi-criteria analysis for the Local Plan of Cremona 182
13.6 MCA results 185
13.7 Conclusions 189
14 A Methodology for the Analysis of Spatial Conflicts
in Transport Policies: Overview and Applications 193
Euro Beinat
14.1 Introduction 193
14.2 Methodology framework 195
14.3 Inside the methodology 197
14.4 Applications 203
14.5 Conclusions 208
15 Virtual Reality and the Simulation of
Europe's Land Use in the Twenty First Century 211
Ant6nio Camara
15.1 Introduction 211
15.2 Virtual reality methods and the visualisation of terrains 212
15.3 Coupling simulation models to virtual environments 220
15.4 Visualisation of Europe's land use simulation model 223
15.5 Conclusions 228
PART IV: THE DEVELOPMENT OF A EUROPEAN
LAND USE SIMULATION SYSTEM
16 EuroScanner: A Simulation Model for Land Use Change in Europe 235
Piet Rietveld, Henk Scholten and John Stillwell
16.1 Introduction 235
16.2 Approaches to modelling land use 235
16.3 System structure and model features 236
16.4 Land use data, regional constraints,
suitability maps and government policy interventions 238
16.5 Mathematical formulation of the model 239
16.6 Extensions to the doubly constrained land use model 242
16.7 Conclusions 243
IX
17 A National Planning Application of EuroScanner in the Netherlands 245
Kees Schotten and Camiel Heunks
17.1 Introduction 245
17.2 Planning background and scenario development 245
17.3 Simulation of residential areas 247
17.4 Integrated land use map 252
17.5 Environmental impact assessment 252
17.6 Conclusions 254
18 A Regional Planning Application of EuroScanner in Portugal 257
Alfred Wagtendonk, Rui Pedro Juliao and Kees Schotten
18.1 Introduction 257
18.2 Lisbon and the Tagus Valley 258
18.3 Urban and regional plans 265
18.4 Land use classification of Landsat images between 1984 and 1998 269
18.5 Identification of driving forces 271
18.6 Operationalisation of driving forces 276
18.7 Statistical analysis land use changes between 1984 and 1998 277
18.8 Simulations with EuroScanner 282
18.9 Results of simulations 285
18.10 Conclusions 289
Subject Index 293
LIST OF FIGURES
1.1: Conceptual framework 3
2.1: The triangle of ESDP objectives 17
2.2: The calculus of consent: an issue for co-operation in spatial development 21
3.1: The dimensions and key events in the development of the ESDP 27
3.2: ESDP policy goals related to current Dutch policy development 31
3.3: Objectives of the RES for Yorkshire and Humberside 33
4.1: Evidence of the abandonment of marginal land 39
5.1: Projected change in total population, NUTS-2 regions, 1995-2025 48
5.2: Projected change in population aged 0-19, NUTS-2 regions, 1995-2025 49
5.3: Projected change in population aged 20-59, NUTS-2 regions, 1995-2025 50
5.4: Projected change in population aged 60+, NUTS-2 regions, 1995-2025 51
5.5: Projected population changes by local authority in England, 1996-2021 54
5.6: Proportional change in the household projections, 1996-2021 58
6.1: Homogeneous land market 66
6.2: Land market with zero market price 67
6.3: Elastic supply of land 68
6.4: Land market with two participants 69
6.5: Average land price for single family homes in the Netherlands, 1996 70
6.6: External effects of land use 71
6.7: Land use, taxation and subsidies 72
6.8: Supply restrictions 74
6.9: Land use after Von Thiinen 75
6.10: Relationship between rent and location 76
6.11: Land prices in a monocentric city 77
7.1: NOAA-AVHRR image and detail of the Netherlands 86
7.2: RESURS image and detail of the Dutch flevoploder 87
7.3: IRS image and detail of Dutch flevopolder 88
7.4: Landsat TM image and detail of Dutch flevopolder 89
7.5: SPOT image and detail of the Dutch flevopolder 90
7.6: IKONOS image and detail of Washington DC 91
7.7: CORINE land cover database 93
7.8: PELCOM land cover database 94
7.9: DISCover land cover database 94
7.10: Datasets in detail 95
7.11: LandsatTM images of (a) Paris; (b) detail, 2011011984;
and (c) detail, 10/8/1998 96
7.12: Visual interpretation of LandsatTM images of Paris 96
Xl