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Land-Use Modelling in Planning Practice The GeoJournal Library Volume 101 ManagingEditor: DanielZ.Sui,CollegeStation,USA FoundingSeriesEditor: WolfTietze,Helmstedt,Germany EditorialBoard: PaulClaval,France YehudaGradus,Israel SamOckPark,SouthKorea HermanvanderWusten,TheNetherlands Forfurthervolumes: http://www.springer.com/series/6007 Eric Koomen Judith Borsboom-van Beurden · Editors Land-Use Modelling in Planning Practice 123 Editors EricKoomen JudithBorsboom-vanBeurden VUUniversityAmsterdam TNOBehaviouralandSocietalSciences SpatialEconomics/SPINlab POBox49,2600AADelft FEWEB/RE TheNetherlands DeBoelelaan1105 [email protected] 1081HVAmsterdam TheNetherlands [email protected] ISSN0924-5499 ISBN978-94-007-1821-0 e-ISBN978-94-007-1822-7 DOI10.1007/978-94-007-1822-7 SpringerDordrechtHeidelbergLondonNewYork LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2011935563 ©SpringerScience+BusinessMediaB.V.2011 Nopartofthisworkmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedinanyformorby anymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,microfilming,recordingorotherwise,withoutwritten permissionfromthePublisher,withtheexceptionofanymaterialsuppliedspecificallyforthepurpose ofbeingenteredandexecutedonacomputersystem,forexclusiveusebythepurchaserofthework. Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia(www.springer.com) Foreword A generation or more ago when land use transport models were first being developed, the focus was on how different models compared with one another in technical and theoretical terms. There was a concern for dynamics, for interaction and for calibration and validation, but less so for how such models might be interfaced with wider planning processes and the stakeholders that operate such systemsandareindeedinfluencedbytheplansthatemergedfromthem.Thestate of the art then consisted of comparative studies of cross-sectional comprehensive spatial interaction model applications catalogued, for example, in the ISGLUTI Project – the International Study Group on Land Use Transport Interaction – and reportedinthebookbyWebster,BlyandPaulley(1988).Thedominantfocuswas verymuchintermsofthetechnicalperformanceofmodelsratherthantheirusein planningorpolicy-making. As our experience of these models grew and evolved, this focus began to shift tothecontextinwhichmodelswerebestused.Ontotheagendacameideasabout thevarioustoolsthathadbeendevelopedtoinformhowwemightbestmakegood plans, and how these could be stitched together into coherent planning methods. Planningsupportsystemsinanalogytodecisionsupportinmanagementwerefirst formallysuggestedover20yearsagobyBrittonHarris(1989)inhisseminalarticle Beyondgeographicinformationsystems:computersandtheplanningprofessional as a way of bridging the development of computer models and tools with the activitiesofplan-making. Sincethen,aseriesofcontributionstowaysofbuilding thisbridgehavebeenforged,themostrecentbeingreportedbyBrail’s(2008)inthe collectionofpapersinhisbookPlanningSupportSystemsforCitiesandRegions. Manyofthesesketchthewidercontextandillustratehowadiversityofmodelsand methods are coming together to define appropriate forums for dialogues between modelbuilders,plannersandthewidersetofstakeholdersinvolvedinpolicyandits implementation. Sofarwedonothaveadetailedblowbyblowaccountofbuildingandapplying models as part of planning support systems. Until now that is, because this book represents the first such chronology of how a suite of land-use modelling tools called LUMOS – Land Use MOdelling System – which is centred on the Land Use Scanner model with another model Environment Explorer being sometimes v vi Foreword used in parallel, is being fashioned to examine a wide array of different planning issues ranging from climate change to ways of reducing energy use in transport. This book should convince sceptics of the need to use formal tools in a sensitive andappropriatemannertoexploredifferenturbanandregionalfuturesthatcanbest addressthevariousgrandchallengesinvolvingtheenvironmentthatwilldominate the next 20 years and beyond. All of the authors writing here provide a splendid pictureofplanningsupportsystemsinaction,infactofseveralvariantsofageneric planning support system fashioned around the various tools and models that have been developed by many groups in the Netherlands which are now maintained by PBLNetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessmentAgency. Thisbookreflectsexperienceofusingthesetoolsovera15yearperiodfromthe time when the Land Use Scanner was first developed, through its development to finerscalelevelsofspatialresolutionandthroughitsdevelopmentfromananalytical tooltoonewithadirectoptimisationcapability.Thefirstthreechaptersinthebook setthecontextbydescribingthesemodelsandsettingtheminthewidercontextof spatial modelling more generally. Koomen, Hilferink and Borsboom-van Beurden provideacomprehensiveandtechnicallyusefuldescriptioninthefirstchapterwhere they define the basic structure and purpose of the model as a ‘specification of regional demand for land, a definition of local suitability, an allocation module’, andresultingdepictionsoffuturelanduse. ThisintroductionisfollowedbysettingtheLUMOS-modelsinaninternational perspective basedonareportbyTimmermans, Batty,Couclelis and Wegener who were involved in developing a critique of the experience in 2007. It might seem a littleoddthatoneofthesereviewersiswritingthisforewordbutasagroup,wehada privilegedroleinlearningabouttheproject,andthusIcancommunicateourfeelings thatthisentireeffortshouldbebroughttotheattentionofthewiderworldofland- useandurbanmodellersaswellasplannersengagedinthesearchforgoodpractice inthekindsofplanningthatLUMOShasbeenusedtosupport.Infact,theLUMOS toolboxisunusualinthatthemodelsgenerallyoperateacrossseveralscalesfromthe countrywide Netherlands itself down to quite small urban and rural regions. What indeedisimpressiveistherangeofapplicationsthatarereportedhere.Thesepick up on significant questions about sprawl, environment, city compaction, climate change,andenergyreductioninthecontextofsustainability.Thetoolboxdoesnot quiteextendtodealingwithdemographicfactorspersebutthereareplentyofhooks tosuggesthowtheseothersectoralmodelscanbepluggedintoanyplanningsupport systemfashionedonLUMOSprinciples. Before the various contributions move onto applications and extensions of the models, van Schrojenstein Lantman, Verburg, Bregt, and Geertman provide an interesting and informative review of land-use models ranging from land cover to cellularautomataandthencetoagentbasedmodels.Theyreviewsixgenerictypes inmoredetailincludingGEOMOD2whichislandcoverbased,SLEUTHwhichis acellularautomatalanddevelopmentmodel,UrbanSimwhichisprobablythebest exampleofacontemporarylandusetransportmodelbasedondiscretechoicetheory but also embodying fine scale spatial grain with an agent-based focus, IMAGE an ecological–environmental framework to explore the long-term dynamics of global Foreword vii change,CORMASamulti-agentframeworksimulatingnaturalresourcesallocation, and ILUMASS a micro-simulation model of urban land use. A brief review of the modelling process involving calibration and validation is present and this sets the sceneformanyapplicationsinpractice. Sustainability issues follow focusing on climate change – flooding risks and water damage, shortages and salt-water intrusion – biodiversity, accessibility and environmentalimpacts,qualityoflife,globalbusinessissues,andlandscapequality. Transportmodellinganditsrelationtoland-usechangearethenexploredusingthe example of a well-established model in which many features of the land market appear.ThismodelwhichiscalledTigrisXLislinkedtoLandUseScannerthrough the housing market which lies at the heart of linking different kinds of urban model. Applications then focus on the potential for resource allocation across the Netherlandsanditsregionwherethevarioussimulationmodelsareusedtolookat bio energy production and more general regional spatial strategy planning. Many importantlessonsfortheuseofmodelsinplanningsupportaregleanedfromthese analyses.Theselessonshavebeennotedmanytimesbuthere,theyarebasedona wealthofexperiencewhichisonlypossiblewhenyouhavehadthesortofsustained modellingeffortthathasbeencharacteristicofplanningintheNetherlandsforthe last20–30yearsatleast. Futuredevelopmentsarethenchartedanditisherethatweseehowthecritical massbuiltupfromthisexperienceprovidesanimportantguidetohowthesemodels might be extended and improved. Dekkers and Rietveld begin this process by developingalandmarketbasisforLandUseScannerwhileKuijpers-Lindeprovides thewidercontextofplanningsupport.Lastbutnotleastanewmarket-basedland- use model is proposed by Borsboom-van Beurden and Zondag. This builds on the Tigris XL schema and from this and other contributions below, it clear that the generalconsensusisthatallthesetoolsneedastrongereconomicunderpinningfor theprocessesoflandallocationthattheysimulateandforecastaswellasoptimise. This book is a timely and important contribution to ways in which we might use models in planning, models in practice, and how we might best use them to inform the dialogue between professionals and decision-makers. Case studies are essentialinthisbutalltoooften,wedonothaveenoughdetailtoknowhoweffective the models and tools applied have actually been. This book redresses this balance for it contains a wealth of experience that is not available anywhere else. What is unusualandimpressiveisthewaythisexperienceisbeingusedtoimproveplanning support, to reconcile a changing balance between experts, professionals, informed lay interests and the public-at-large. Joshua Epstein (2008) in a fascinating essay entitled Why Model? makes the point ‘The choice, then, is not whether to build models;it’swhethertobuildexplicitones.Inexplicitmodels,assumptionsarelaid out in detail, so we can study exactly what they entail’. The contributions in this bookprovidethisexplicitnessthatEpsteincallsforinawaythatprovidesuswith clearrulesofengagementfortheuseofmodelsinplanning. London,UK MichaelBatty viii Foreword References Brail, R. K. (Ed.). (2008). Planning support systems for cities and regions. Cambridge, MA: LincolnInstituteofLandPolicy. Epstein,J.M.(2008).Whymodel?JournalofArtificialSocietiesandSocialSimulation,11(4),12. Availableathttp://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/11/4/12.html.RetrievedMarch2011. Harris, B. (1989). Beyond geographic information systems: Computers and the planning professional.JournaloftheAmericanPlanningAssociation,55,85–90 Webster, F. V., Bly, P. H., & Paulley, N. J. (1988). Urban land use and transport interaction: Policiesandmodels.Farnborough,Hants:Gower. Preface Land-use modelling has been firmly established in Dutch planning practice in the past 10 years. The Land Use MOdelling System (LUMOS) toolbox, managed by PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, has made this development possible. The development of this toolbox started in 1996 and builds on the cooperation of public research organisations such as PBL and the Agricultural Economics Research Institute (LEI), academic institutes (VU UniversityAmsterdam)andcommercialITcompanies(GeodanandObjectVision). Theongoingmodeldevelopmentprocessisuniqueinthesensethatitreflectsalmost 15yearsofcontinuousinteractionbetweenplanners,researchersandITspecialists. This book gives an overview of the wealth of recent applications and developmentsoftheLUMOStoolbox.Itcontainscontributionsofthemanypartners that are active in applying and developing the toolbox and focuses specifically on the Land Use Scanner model that was applied in a wide range of policy-related studies in the past years. In addition to being employed for trend extrapolation, scenario studies and optimisation at the national level, the model has also been frequently used at the lower, regional scale level as is demonstrated in the various regional cases that are included in the book. Besides these applications, the book alsoconsiderssomeofthemoretheoreticalaspectsofland-usemodelsanddiscusses variousstudiespreparingthefurtherdevelopmentofthemodel.Assuch,thisbook isacontinuationofthepreviousDutchRuimtescannerbookpublishedin2001that describedthedevelopmentandinitialapplicationsofLandUseScanner. The current book is aimed at planners and researchers worldwide that are interestedinthecurrentstateoftheartofland-usemodellinginplanningpractice.It showswhichtypesofapplicationsarepossiblewithcurrentoperationalinstruments anddiscussespossiblepathwaysforfurtherdevelopment.Thebookallowsscholars andpractitionersaroundtheglobetolearnfromtheextensiveexperienceofDutch plannersandmodellers.ThismaybeparticularlyinterestingsincetheNetherlands have a longstanding experience in this field, which is exemplified by the fact that thewell-knownandoften-usedCLUEandMOLAND-basedmodelsalsooriginate here. Obviously,thebookisonlyasnapshotofworkinprogress.Itdoes,forexample, notdocumentrecentworkrelatedtoclimateadaptationthatiscarriedoutwithinthe ix