Knowledge, Technology Transfer and Foresight

252 Pages·1996·11.112 MB·English

by  Margaret Sharp (auth.), Annamária Inzelt, Reinhard Coenen (eds.)

Knowledge, Technology Transfer and Foresight
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Serles 4: Sclence and Technology Pollcy - Vol. 8
Knowledge, Technology Transfer
and Foresight
edited by
Annamaria Inzelt
IKU Innovation Research Centre Budapest,
Hungary
and
Reinhard Coenen
Nuclear Research Centre Karlsruhe,
Germany
Kluwer Academic Publishers
Dordrecht / Boston / London
Published in cooperation with NATO Scientific Attairs Division
Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on
Knowledge, Technology Transfer and Foresight
Budapest, Hungary
October 12-14, 1995
A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress
ISBN-13:978-0-7923-4274-8 e-ISBN-13:978-94-009-0351-7
DOI:1O.1007/978-94-009-0351-7
Published by Kluwer Academic Publishers,
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v
Dedication
This book is dedicated to mothers of the editors Klära Inzelt and Martha Coenen who
were life-giving for us when humankind used the science against humanity.
VII
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Preface IX
Acknowledgements XI
Introduction XIII
Chapter I: Knowledge Transfer in Biotechnology
Knowledge Transfer and Biotechnology 3
The Case ofEurope's Large Multinationals
Margaret Sharp
Knowledge Transfer in Biotechnology 25
The Case of Germany
Thomas Reiss
Redefming Transfer in Biotechnology and Software 33
Multiple Creation ofKnowledge and Issues ofOwnership
Maureen D. McKelvey
Chapter 11 -Diffusion of Laser Technology 49
Diffusion ofLaser Technology 51
fan J. Spalding
Diffusion ofHungarin Laser Technology 65
Norbert KroD
Diffusion ofMedical Lasers in The Netherlands 73
Hindrik Vondeling, Henk Rosendal, David Banta
Progress of Laser Technologies in Belarus 99
Alexander S. Rubanov
VIII
Chapter III -Information Teehnology 113
Before the Glass Mountain 115
The Challenge ofData Networks and Telework for Central and Eastem
Europe
Peter D. Hanak
Socioteehnieal Alignment in the Intra-Organisational Diffusion of 125
Information Teehnology
Alfonso H. Molina
Information Teehnology Culture Dissemination in Romania 149
Experiments and Aehievements
Florin G. Filip
Geographie Information Systems in Hungary 161
Sandor Bottka
Chapter IV -Foresight Methods and Exercises 171
The Highly Probable Future 173
83 Assumptions about the Year 2025
Joseph F. Coates
Foresight in Scienee and Teehnology 181
Selected Methodologies and Recent Aetivities in Germany
Sibylle Breiner
The United Kingdom Technology Foresight Programme 195
Luke Georghiou
The Present State, Foresight and Development Prospects ofTechnology 213
in Russia
Galina Sagieva
On Energy Security of Russia and Europe 229
Alexander E. Sheindlin
Annex: List of Partieipants 239
Subject Index 249
IX
Preface
The papers presented in this book were among those contributed by participants from a
wide variety ofbackgrounds at the "Knowledge, Technology Transfer and Forecasting"
NATO Advanced Research Workshop held in Budapest on 12-14 October.
This NATO ARW was initiated by IATAFI (International Association for
Technology Assessment and Forecasting Institutes) and IKU (Innovation Research
Centre). The workshop was arranged to bring together natural and social scientists from
around the world, primarily from NATO countries and East and Central European Co
operation partner countries.
Discussions focused on assessing of accumulated knowledge of three emerging
pervasive technologies: biotechnology, informatics and laser. It also concentrated on
foresight and forecast. The papers selected reflect these topics and show the present
situation as it appeared at the workshop.
Annamaria Inzelt Reinhard Coenen
Budapest Karlsruhe
Co-directors
XI
Acknowledgements
The co-directors of the workshop are grateful to the NATO Science Committee for its
grant to organize a workshop for fifty scientists, and IA TAFI who supported
participations from China, India and Africa. Beside them the support from two
Hungarian government organisations, the OMFB (National Committee for
Technological Development) and the Ministry of Industry and Trade allowed us to offer
participants the traditional Hungarian hospitality.
We would like to express our thanks to rapporteurs of the workshop: Katalin
György, Attlia Havas, Trygve Hindenes and Gary Williams and language correctors
Gary Williams, Michael Jordan and Chris Springer for their careful work.
XIII
Introduction
The arms race has ended and a new era is dawning. As the end of the millenium nears,
we fmd ourselves in an era of globalization and economic competition. By the end of
this century, science and technology and a highly educated workforce will become the
most important sources of national and regional competitiveness. Science must play a
crucial role in wealth and job creation, to combat new diseases and to protect ourselves
from natural and man-made disasters. We need knowledge that protects the
environment and thus can bring economic stability and contribute to future prosperity.
Humanity has arrived at a new threshold. The next millenium will be driven by
science. We believe that any modem economy has to invest in long-term research. To
gain society's support for budget allocations for research, we have to justify these
expenses by demonstrating how research improves the competitiveness of the economy
and the well-being of society.
Around the world today, research and development activities are being given less
and less priority. Govemments are putting less money into universities, state-owned and
govemment research institutes.
Nowadays many advanced countries are less willing to spend money on research
and development, and they are cutting back on technology assessment. Indeed,
traditional science and technology policies are not proper for our new era. Reinventing
the govemment's role in the economy and in society provides a good opportunity to
redefme science, technology and innovation policies.
In a world where everyone seeks short-term gains, the dilemma of who should
finance the replenishing of humanity's storehouse of knowledge is difficult, especially
for those countries that lag behind in diffusing knowledge and commercialisation
including the former socialist countries. These countries were not able to commercialize
new scientific results with nearly as much success as advanced market economies.
Command economies were not successful in diffusing innovations. They were clearly
caught in a technological deadlock. And, to emerge from this deadlock, we have to
create the proper economic environment for commercialization and innovation.
Workshops such as this one can help countries with similar difficulties to identify
ways to achieve economic growth and competitiveness.
As likely partners in co-operation, both East and West must take into account
knowledge assets and existing technologies in Central and Eastem European countries.
Their potential value for commercialization may impact not only on these regions but in
other parts of the world. A clear understanding of the needs for innovations is an
important part ofthis evaluation process.
These considerations served as the basis for choosing the workshop topics. The
topics of our discussions include assessment of existing technologies, technology
transfer and diffusion in three fields, such as laser technology, biotechnology and
information technology. In each of these sectors, basic research is closely linked to
applied research. Research is much more problem-driven than science-driven. The line