Introduction to Risk Analysis: A Systematic Approach to Science-Based Decision Making PDF
464 Pages·2000·26.033 MB·English
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Preview Introduction to Risk Analysis: A Systematic Approach to Science-Based Decision Making
Description:
This introductory book covers an unusually complete list of topics for such a complex subject. The first three chapters (Risk Analysis; Functions, Models and Uncertainties; and Regulation)are perhaps the most valuable. They cover the basics of risk analysis, defining essential terminology and concepts as they go. Risk is defined on page 1 as "the probability of a future loss", and this definition is applied consistently throughout. It is highly useful for prospective risk assessment, although -- as the authors acknowledge -- it is not a universally accepted definition. By contrast, *retrospective* risk assessment concepts (such as attributable risks calculated for litigation)and definitions that attempt to combine probability of a loss event with the probable severity of loss if it occurs (e.g., F-N curves and risk profiles) receive relaively little attention. The discussion of ethical systems in regulation is welcome and illuminating. Formulas and numerical expressions throughout the text are kept elementary and the authors develop them carefully, assuming little more than high school algebra as a prerequisite.Introduction to Risk Analysis follows the tradition of dividing the field into three major components: assessment, management, and communication of risk. It explains (without endorsing) the famous Red Book and Presidential Commission paradigms. The authors are careful to distiguish between risk analysis and processes of safety assessment and public health advocacy.The ten chapters after the three introductory ones cover risk assessment(exposure assessment, dosimetry, extraction of potency estimates from epidemiology and toxicology data, risk characterization, comparative risk, and ecological risk), risk management, risk communication, and case studies.The book emphasizes environmental and health applications as its major case material. Given the extensive use of risk analysis by federal regulatory agencies, this emphasis should be interesting and helpful to a wide audience of students and practitioners. While most of the text is devoted to chemical risks, the principles explained in the book apply broadly to other areas of applied risk analysis such as infectious diseases, radiation hazards, insurance, and financial and engineering risks. The relatively sophisticated and detailed methods and models of risk in modern finance and other areas are not covered. Such details would be appropriate for a second course in risk analysis. This introduction provides general concepts and frameworks that may be useful in many applied areas but it can only introduce many topics and areas (e.g., decision-analytic approaches) that invite further study in a follow-up course or book. The easy style and broad coverage make reading the book attractive. It is to be hoped that the authors follow with a second book for those whose appetites are whetted by this stimulating introduction to the field.
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