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Texts in Computer Science Editors DavidGries FredB.Schneider Forfurthervolumes: www.springer.com/series/3191 Claudio Cioffi-Revilla Introduction to Computational Social Science Principles and Applications ClaudioCioffi-Revilla GeorgeMasonUniversity Fairfax,VA,USA SeriesEditors DavidGries FredB.Schneider DepartmentofComputerScience DepartmentofComputerScience CornellUniversity CornellUniversity Ithaca,NY,USA Ithaca,NY,USA ISSN1868-0941 ISSN1868-095X(electronic) TextsinComputerScience ISBN978-1-4471-5660-4 ISBN978-1-4471-5661-1(eBook) DOI10.1007/978-1-4471-5661-1 SpringerLondonHeidelbergNewYorkDordrecht LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2013957559 ©Springer-VerlagLondon2014 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartof thematerialisconcerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,reuseofillustrations,recitation, broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionorinformation storageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodology nowknownorhereafterdeveloped.Exemptedfromthislegalreservationarebriefexcerptsinconnection with reviews or scholarly analysis or material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the Copyright Law of the Publisher’slocation,initscurrentversion,andpermissionforusemustalwaysbeobtainedfromSpringer. PermissionsforusemaybeobtainedthroughRightsLinkattheCopyrightClearanceCenter.Violations areliabletoprosecutionundertherespectiveCopyrightLaw. Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc.inthispublication doesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromtherelevant protectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Whiletheadviceandinformationinthisbookarebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpub- lication,neithertheauthorsnortheeditorsnorthepublishercanacceptanylegalresponsibilityforany errorsoromissionsthatmaybemade.Thepublishermakesnowarranty,expressorimplied,withrespect tothematerialcontainedherein. Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScience+BusinessMedia(www.springer.com) TomyLadyJean, L.G.C.H.S., onourXLanniversary Preface ThistextbookprovidesanintroductiontoComputationalSocialScience(CSS),an emergingfieldattheintersectionoftraditionalsocialsciencedisciplines,computer science,environmentalscience,andengineeringsciences.CSSisinspiredby20th- centurypioneerssuchasHerbertA.Simon,whosawessentiallyanewwayofdoing social science enabled by computational science and technology. Scientist and vi- sionary Peter J. Denning once said that “the science of the 21st century will be computational,”sothisbookisproofofthatideainsocialsciencedomains. Asatextbook,thisisintendedasasystematicintroductorysurveytofamiliarize thereaderwiththeoveralllandscapeofCSS,includingitsmainconcepts,principles, applications,andareasofresearch.CSSinvestigatessocialcomplexityatalllevels ofanalysis—cognitive,individual,group,societal,andglobal—throughthemedium of computation, as we will examine in greater detail in Chap. 1. This book is not intendedasanadvanced,specializedmonographtodevelopdeepexpertise. The need for this book arose from the lack of unified treatment of the various areas of theory and research in CSS. As a consequence, those of us involved in teachingthis newsubjecthavebeenconstrainedtouse adisparatelibraryof read- ings without a single, unified framework. This book aims to be both comprehen- sive(includeallmajorareasofCSS)andscientificallyintegratedbyanoverarching frameworkinspiredbytheparadigmofcomplexadaptivesystems,asdevelopedby SimonandhiscontemporariesinwhatmaynowbecalledtheFounders’sGeneration (describedinChap.1). This project originated from the course on Introduction to CSS that has been taught at George Mason University for the past ten years. It is the core course in CSS, required of all students entering our graduate program in the Department of Computational Social Science. Initially, I taught the course, then other colleagues joined.Approximatelytenstudentshavetakenthecourseeachyear,mostlyfromthe CSSprogram,butalsofromotherdepartmentsacrossthesocialsciences,computer science,environmentalscience,andengineeringsciences. Thisbookisintendedfortwotypesofreaders,whichreflectthediversestudent communities who have taken this course over the years. Some students will use it as a one-time, comprehensive exposure to the field of CSS. Other students might vii viii Preface use it as foundation for further study through more advanced, specialized work in oneormoreoftheareassurveyedhere.Thisbookshouldalsobehelpfultostudents preparing for their doctoral examination in CSS, as a review of basic ideas and a waytointegrateknowledge. The background assumed of the reader consists of some familiarity with one or more of the social sciences at a level equivalent to undergraduate study, basic knowledge of programming in any language (nowadays Python has become quite popular and is an excellent language for learning about computation), and some ability to follow mathematical modeling using logic, elementary probability, and basiccalculus.HighermathematicsareunnecessaryforintroducingCSS. Theplanofthebookisasfollows:Chapter1providesanintroduction,focusing primarilyonthemeaningofcomplexadaptivesystemsinsocialdomains,including thesignificanceofHerbertA.Simon’sseminaltheoryandtheparadigmitprovides for CSS. This initial chapter also explains the main areas of CSS covered in this textbook,whicharetakenupinChaps.3to10.Chapter2providesareviewofbasic ideasincomputingfromasocialscienceperspective,orcomputationasaparadigm fordevelopingsocialscience;itisnotintendedasasubstituteforformalinstruction oncomputationandprogramingforsocialscientists. ThefollowingchapterscovermajorareasofCSS,correspondingtofourdistinct methodologicalapproaches,assummarizedinSect.1.6: Automatedinformationextraction(Chap.3) • Socialnetworks(Chap.4) • Socialcomplexity: • – Originsandmeasurement(Chap.5) – Laws(Chap.6) – Theories(Chap.7) Socialsimulation: • – Methodology(Chap.8) – Variable-basedmodels(Chap.9) – Object-based(Chap.10) Each chapter contains a brief opening section introducing and motivating the chapter. This is followed by a section summarizing some of the history of CSS in thechapter’sarea,basedonsignificantmilestones.Thepurposeofthesehistorical chronologies associated with each chapter’s theme is to make the reader aware of significant scientific roots of the field of CSS, including its braided development withrelateddisciplines;itdoesnotprovideasystematichistory.Eachchapteralso includesalistofRecommendedReadings,primarilyintendedasaguidefordeep- eningunderstandingofeachchapter,notasexhaustivebibliographies. The style of the textbook attempts to strike a balance between an informal, reader-friendly, narrative tone, and a more formal tone that is necessary for high- lighting rigorous concepts and results. Concept formation is a major emphasis, as isthestatementoflawsandprinciplesfromtheoryandresearchinquantitativeso- cialscience,especiallyformaltheoryandempiricallyvalidatedmodels.Alongthese lines,aneffortismade,beginninginChap.2,toprovideCSSwithsystematic,sci- entific,graphicnotationthathasbeensosadlylackingintraditionalsocialscience. Preface ix This is done by adopting the Unified Modeling Language (UML) as a viable sys- tem for describing social complexity through graphic models that have powerful analyticalmeaning,aswellashavingdirectcorrespondencewithcomputationand code.Mathematicalnotationusedinthisbookisstandardandaimsatmaintaining consistencyacrosschapters. Finally, in terms of possible uses of this textbook, instructors may consider the following options. The ten chapters of this textbook are normally more than suffi- cientforaone-semestercourse,becausesomechapterswillrequiremorethanone weektoworkthrough.Chapter1isbestcoveredinasinglesession.Chapter2can easilybecoveredintwosessions,bydedicatingthesecondsessiontoUML.Chap- ters 4,5,6,7,9,and10canalsoeachbecoveredintwosessions, bydividingthe material into the main sections composing each chapter. Hence, another option is to use this textbook for a two-semester sequence, as is done in many other fields. ThisextendedformatwouldalsopermitmoreuseofRecommendedReadings,sup- plementedbyadditionalbibliography,andspendingmoretimeanalyzingexamples to deepen understanding of concepts and principles. Readers are strongly encour- agedtousethelistofRecommendedReadingstostudytheclassicworks,whichare highlightedinthehistoricalsectionatthebeginningofeachchapter. Thisbookhasbenefitedfromsignificantfeedbackfromstudents,soIwelcome futuresuggestionsforcorrectionsandimprovements.Ihopeyou,thereader,enjoy learningfromthisbookatleastasmuchasIhaveenjoyedwritingit. Washington,DC ClaudioCioffi-Revilla September2013 Acknowledgements DuringthepastfourdecadesIhavebenefitedfromscientificdiscussionswithmen- tors, colleagues, and students who have influenced my research and teaching in ComputationalSocialScience.Muchofmyoriginalinterestinthefieldcamefrom discussionswithHerbert(“Herb”)A.SimonandmembersoftheTriple-ISeminar on Complex Systems during the 1980s, including Elinor (“Lin”) and Vince Os- tromandHarveyStarrfromIndianaUniversity,DinaA.Zinnes,DickMerritt,Bob Muncaster,Jim Kuklinsky,andMike Krassafrom theMerriamLabattheUniver- sityofIllinoisatUrbana-Champaign,andBobBoyntonfromtheUniversityofIowa. DiscussionswithKarlDeutsch,EdAzar,AndyScott,HaroldGuetzkow,BruceRus- sett, Hayward Alker, Raoul Narroll, Steve Wolfram, Larry Smarr, Benoit Mandel- drot,RayDacey,MartinShubik,DwainMeford,JimRosenau,PierreAllan,Giorgio Natalicchi,SamKotz,andKurtJohnsonfromtheearlierphaseofmyacademicca- reerarestillmemorable.CraigMurphy,DougNelson,ChuckTaber,KellyKadera, Terry Clark, andPaulPudiatewereamongmyearlieststudents. WhenI movedto theUniversityofColoradoatBoulderIlearnedagreatdealfromJohnRundleand colleaguesattheColoradoCenterforChaosandComplexity(C4),especiallyV.J. GuptaandLizBradley. ThistextbookgrowsoutoftheinterdisciplinaryPrograminComputationalSo- cial Science at George Mason University, which I founded in 2002 through joint teamwork with numerous students, faculty, staff, and administrators from the Ma- son campus. At the risk of unintentionally omitting someone, I wish to thank the manywhohavehelpedmeinmyriadways:GiorgioAscoli,RobAxtell,PeterBalint, JacquieBarker,ErnieBarreto,AndreaBartoli,JeffBassett,SherylBeach,JimBeall, Pete Becker, Tony Bigbee, Christina Bishop, Kim and Sharon Bloomquist, Gary Bogle,AnnettaBurger,JoeyCarls,RandyCasstevens,GabrielCatalinBalan,Deb- bie Boehm-Davis, Dan Carr, Jack Censer, Guido Cervone, Kai-Kong Chan, Bar- bara Cohen, Marc Coletti, Jim Conant, Tim Conlan, Chenna Cotla, Julie Chris- tensen, AndrewCrooks, PaulCummings,DavidDavis,KenDeJong, DanDruck- man, Bob Dudley, Debbie V. Duong, Kim Eby, Allan Falconer, Win Farrell, Ta- tianaFilatova,KimFord,JenniferFortney,AaronFrank,BrendonFuhs,JimGen- tle, Aldona Gozikowski, Omar Guerrero, Cathy Gallagher, Jack Goldstone, Jon xi xii Acknowledgements Gould, John Grefenstette, Beth Grohnke, Greg Guagnano, Renate Guilford, Tim Gulden, Ates Hailegiorgis, Joey Harrison, Melissa Hayes, Kingsley Haynes, Dee Holisky, Bill Honeychurch, Dan Houser, Chris Hyungsik Shin, Bob Jonas, Chris Jones,MarkKatz,BillKennedy,MattKoehler,MactionKomwa,DorothyKondal, Raj Kulkarni, Mike Laskofski, Maciej Latek, Randy Latimer, Kate Leonard, Alex Levis, Collette Lawson, Ann Ludwick, Cynthia Lum, José Manuel Magallanes, Julie Mahler, Michelle Marks, David Masad, Steve Mastrofski, Kevin McCabe, Mike McDonald, Hugh McFarlane, Danny Menascé, Alan Merten, Tish Moreno, MichaelNaor,JohnnyNelson,JimOlds,LesliePainter,LiviuPanait,DawnParker, AnnPalkovich,SeanPaus,NicolasPayette,CarolynPayne,KathleenPérez-López, BianicaPint,MargaretPolski,PaulPosner,StevePrior,DeniseQuinto,PrisRegan, CindyRoberts,SuzanneRobbins,PedroRomero,TomRosati,DaveRossell,Mark Rouleau (our first Ph.D. in CSS), Cathy Rudder, John Sacco, Mickey Satija, Tim Sauer, Laurie Schintler, Paul Schopf, Linda Schwartztein, Jagadish Shukla, Steve Scott, James Snead, Paul So, Arun Sood, Peter Stearns, Roger Stough, Jennifer Sturgis, Keith Sullivan, Burak Tanyu, Rhonda Troutman, Max Tsvetovat, Karen Underwood, Dick Wagner, Nigel Waters, Shandra Watson, Jane Wendelin, Steve Wilcox, Debbie Williams, Sarah Wise, David Wong, Chun-Yi Yang, Carol Zeeve, and Matt Zingraff. Their cumulative efforts have enabled Mason’s Graduate Pro- graminComputationalSocialScience(overadozencoursesinCSS,aCertificate, aMastersinInterdisciplinaryStudies/CSS,andaPh.D.degree),theDepartmentof ComputationalSocialScience,andthegenerativeunitforCSSatMason:theCenter forSocialComplexity(CSC). I have learned much from co-authoring publications, developing new courses and grant proposals, discussing theory and research, and organizing events with a large and stimulating community of colleagues from around the world, includ- ing: Tef Abate, Petra Ahrweiler, Guillermo Algaze, Luís Antunes, Aruna Apte, George Atkinson, Fulvio Attinà, Scott Atran, Brent Auble, Tom Baerwald, Bill Bainbridge, Steve Bankes, Mike Batty, Ana Lucia Bazzan, Russ Bernard, Brian Berry, Ravi Bahvnani, Dmitri Bondarenko, Nathan Bos, Peter Brecke, Stuart Bre- mer, Cathy Cameron, Kathleen Carley, Cristiano Castelfranchi, John Casti, Lars- ErikCederman,FahmidaChowdhury,AlfredCioffi,WayneClough,HelderCoelho, Louise Comfort, Rosaria Conte, Chet Cooper, Linda Cordell, Angela Corolla, NunoDavid,GuillaumeDeffaunt,HiroshiDeguchi,ChristopheDeissenberg,Jerry Dobson, David Dornish, Jim Doran, Massimo Drei, Julie Dugdale, Bruce Ed- monds, Giorgio Einaudi, Carol and Mel Ember, Josh Epstein, Mike Fischer, Bill Fitzhugh,BrunoFrohlich,JoséManuelGalán,JianboGao,MicheleGelfand,Nigel Gilbert,GaryGoertz,RebeccaGoolsby,NickGotts,ArielGreenberg,SteveGuerin, Alessandro Guidi, George Gumerman, Myron Gutmann, David Hales, Dirk Hel- big,MattHoffmann,BarryHughes,LuísIzquierdo,WanderJager,EricJones,Steve Kaisler, Anna Kerttula, Dennis King, Alan Kirman, Jürgen Klüver, Tim Kohler, Nick Kradin, Arie Kruglanski, Larry Kuznar, Steve Lansing, Efraim Laor, Randy Latimer,SteveLekson,NicolaLettieri,MarkLichbach,DavidLightfoot,FredLil- jeros,CoreyLofdahl,UrsLuterbacher,ThomasLux,PattyMabry,CharlesMacal, EdMacKerrow,MichaelMacy,GregMadey,ArtemyMalkov,JoyceMarcus,Jack

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