Introduction to anticipation studies

281 Pages·2017·3.37 MB·English

by  Poli

Anticipation Science 1
Roberto Poli
Introduction
to Anticipation
Studies
Anticipation Science
Volume 1
Editor-in-Chief:
Roberto Poli, Trento University, Italy
Scientific Board:
Ted Fuller, Lincoln University, UK
Jannie Hofmeyr, Stellenbosch University, South Africa
Aloisius H. Louie, Ottawa, Canada
Anticipation Science encompasses natural, formal, and social systems that inten-
tionally or unintentionally use ideas of a future to act in the present, with a broad
focus on humans, institutions, and human-designed systems. Our aim is to enhance
the repertoire of resources for developing ideas of the future, and for expanding and
deepening the ability to use the future. Some questions that the Series intends to
address are the following: When does anticipation occur in behavior and life? Which
types of anticipation can be distinguished? Which properties of our environment
change the pertinence of different types of anticipation? Which structures and pro-
cesses are necessary for anticipatory action? Which is the behavioral impact of
anticipation? How can anticipation be modeled?
The series is interested in receiving book proposals that:
• are aimed at an academic audience of graduate level and up
• combine applied and/or theoretical and/or philosophical studies with work
especially from disciplines within the human and social sciences broadly
conceived.
The series editors aim to make a first decision within 2 months of submission. In
case of a positive first decision the work will be provisionally contracted: the final
decision about publication will depend upon the result of the anonymous peer
review of the complete manuscript. The series editors aim to have the work peer-
reviewed within 4 months after submission of the complete manuscript.
The series editors discourage the submission of manuscripts that are below 150
printed pages (75,000 words). For inquiries and submission of proposals prospec-
tive authors can contact the editor-in-chief:
Roberto Poli: [email protected]
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/15713
Roberto Poli
Introduction to Anticipation
Studies
Roberto Poli
Department of Sociology and social research
University of Trento
Trento, Italy
ISSN 2522-039X ISSN 2522-0403 (electronic)
Anticipation Science
ISBN 978-3-319-63021-2 ISBN 978-3-319-63023-6 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-63023-6
Library of Congress Control Number: 2017948863
© Springer International Publishing AG 2017
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Acknowledgments
I have been lucky enough to write most of this book in enchanting places and sur-
rounded by stimulating colleagues. The Stellenbosch Institute for Advanced Study
(STIAS) offered me two fellowships, in the early months of 2014 and 2016, respec-
tively. The scents, beauty, and social complexity of South Africa are the best imag-
inable framework for working on anticipation and the future. In the early months of
2015, I was a Benjamin Meaker visiting professor from the Institute of Advanced
Studies at the University of Bristol. The intellectual environment of the School of
Education is one of the best academic windows in the future one can imagine. Both
institutions offered perfect conditions of work and endless occasions for discussion.
I would like to thank all those that made my fellowships possible.
At various stages of the elaboration and writing of the book, I have benefited
from insightful comments from many colleagues, including Liliana Albertazzi,
Flaviano Celaschi, Manuela Celi, Giuseppe D’Anna, Francesco della Porta, Antony
Hodgson, Rika Preiser, Carlo Scognamiglio, Rocco Scolozzi, Richard Slaughter,
Robert Ulanowicz, and David Weissman. I thank them all. Needless to say, they are
not responsible for the misunderstandings of their ideas that I have likely
committed.
While writing this book, I have used and often rewritten sections of some of my
previous papers, notably “Analysis-Synthesis” (in V. Petrov (Ed.), Ontological
Landscapes, 2011, 19–42, Frankfurt: Ontos Verlag); “Nicolai Hartmann” (in E. N.
Zalta (Ed.), The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, Fall 2012 Edition); “Ethics
and futures studies” (International Journal of Management Concepts and
Philosophy, 5(4), 2011, 403–410); “The implicit future orientation of the capability
approach” (Futures, 71, 2015, 105–113); “Ecological literacy leadership: Into the
mind of nature” (Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America, 85(1), 2014, 30–58,
with J. J. Kineman); “Multi-leveled objects: Color as a case study” (Front. Psychol.,
5(592), 2014, with L. Albertazzi); “A preliminary glance at social innovation from
an ontological point of view” (Balkan Journal of Philosophy, 6(1), 2014, 17–20);
“The complexity of anticipation” (Balkan Journal of Philosophy, 1(1), 2009,
19–29); “Evolution and anticipation” (Pensamiento, 66(249), 2010, 389–423);
“An introduction to the ontology of anticipation” (Futures, 42(7), 2010, 769–776);
v
vi Acknowledgments
“The many aspects of anticipation” (Foresight, 12(3), 2010, 7–7); “The complexity
of self-reference: A critical evaluation of Luhmann’s theory of social systems”
(Journal of Sociocybernetics, 8(1–2), 2010, 1–23); “A note on the difference
between complicated and complex social systems” (Cadmus, 2(1), 2013, 142–147);
“The spread of hierarchical cycles” (International Journal of General Systems,
40(3), 2011, 237–261, with A. H. Louie); “Steps toward an explicit ontology of the
future” (Journal of Futures Studies, 16(1), 2011, 67–78); “Overcoming divides”
(On the Horizon, 21(1), 2013, 3–14); “Anticipation: A new thread for the human
and social sciences?” (Cadmus, 2(3), 2014, 23–36); “Anticipation: What about turn-
ing the human and social sciences upside down?” (Futures, 64, 2014, 15–18); and
“Belief systems and the modeling relation” (Foundations of Science, 21, 2016, 195–
206). I thank the publishers of these papers and chapters for granting permission to
use them.
Trento, Italy Roberto Poli
1 August 2016
Contents
1 Introduction ............................................................................................. 1
References ................................................................................................. 7
2 Anticipation in the Natural Sciences ..................................................... 9
2.1 Physics ........................................................................................... 9
2.2 Biology .......................................................................................... 12
2.2.1 The Good Samaritan ........................................................ 12
2.2.2 Intelligence ...................................................................... 13
2.2.3 Ascendency and Overhead ............................................... 14
2.2.4 Anticipation ..................................................................... 15
References ................................................................................................. 20
3 A nticipation in the Human and Social Sciences ................................... 23
3.1 Psychology ..................................................................................... 23
3.2 Anthropology ................................................................................. 26
3.3 Sociology ....................................................................................... 30
3.3.1 Projects and Habits .......................................................... 30
3.3.2 Abstract and Concrete Futures ......................................... 32
3.3.3 F orms of Coordination ..................................................... 36
3.3.4 Utopias – Real or Ortherwise .......................................... 39
3.3.5 Future Moves ................................................................... 40
3.4 Economics ...................................................................................... 43
3.4.1 F ictions ............................................................................ 45
3.4.2 Anticipatory Organizations .............................................. 49
3.4.3 Synthetic Information ...................................................... 50
References ................................................................................................. 53
4 Understanding the Future ...................................................................... 59
4.1 Approaching the Study of the Future ............................................. 59
4.1.1 T he First Studies on the Future ........................................ 60
4.1.2 F acta and Futura ............................................................. 61
4.1.3 Dispositions ..................................................................... 62
vii
viii Contents
4.1.4 The Futures in the Making ............................................... 63
4.1.5 Levels of Depth of Futures Study .................................... 64
4.1.6 Futures and Utopias ......................................................... 65
4.1.7 Foresight 2.0 .................................................................... 67
4.2 Types of Future .............................................................................. 68
4.2.1 Ways of Using the Future ................................................ 69
4.2.2 Future-Generating Research ............................................ 70
4.3 Futures Literacy ............................................................................. 72
4.4 Toward a Theory of Anticipation? ................................................. 73
References ................................................................................................. 74
5 Anticipation in Philosophy ..................................................................... 77
5.1 Philosophical Samples ................................................................... 78
5.1.1 H enri Bergson .................................................................. 78
5.1.2 Edmund Husserl ............................................................... 78
5.1.3 George Herbert Mead ...................................................... 80
5.1.4 A lfred North Whitehead .................................................. 82
5.1.5 Charles Peirce .................................................................. 85
5.1.6 Hans Jonas ....................................................................... 86
5.1.7 M artin Heidegger ............................................................. 86
5.1.8 G illes Deleuze .................................................................. 87
5.2 Ernst Bloch .................................................................................... 88
5.3 Nicolai Hartmann ........................................................................... 94
5.4 Ethics ............................................................................................. 95
References ................................................................................................. 98
6 O ntological Sketches ............................................................................... 101
6.1 Ontological Preliminaries .............................................................. 102
6.2 Structural and Functional Analysis ................................................ 106
6.3 Wholes and Their Parts .................................................................. 110
6.4 Encapsulation ................................................................................. 116
References ................................................................................................. 118
7 P rocess, Cause, and Emergence ............................................................. 121
7.1 Process ........................................................................................... 121
7.2 Causation ....................................................................................... 123
7.2.1 Aristotle’s Four Causes .................................................... 126
7.2.2 O rganicity and the Autopoietic Cycle ............................. 126
7.2.3 The Newtonian Isolation of Causes ................................. 129
7.3 Emergence and Creativity .............................................................. 130
7.4 Levels of Reality ............................................................................ 131
7.4.1 Towards a Layered Social Ontology ................................ 133
7.4.2 E mergence and Latents .................................................... 134
7.4.3 E mergents and Values ...................................................... 135
7.4.4 Social Innovation ............................................................. 136
References ................................................................................................. 137
Contents ix
8 Time and Times ....................................................................................... 139
8.1 Time as a Category ........................................................................ 141
8.2 Real Time ....................................................................................... 142
8.2.1 First-Order Level of Time ................................................ 142
8.2.2 Second-Order Level of Time ........................................... 144
8.2.3 Third-Order Level of Time .............................................. 145
8.3 Thick Present: Psychological Time ............................................... 147
8.4 Thick Present: Social Time ............................................................ 149
8.4.1 Historical Time ................................................................ 150
8.4.2 Natural and Artificial Social Rhythms ............................. 151
8.4.3 Culturally-Biased Temporal Patterns ............................... 153
8.4.4 U nfolding Social Acceleration ......................................... 154
8.4.5 Dimensions of Future Projections ................................... 157
8.4.6 Types of Social Time ....................................................... 158
References ................................................................................................. 163
9 Systems ..................................................................................................... 167
9.1 Analysis and Synthesis .................................................................. 170
9.2 Systems and Subsystems ............................................................... 172
9.2.1 T o Understand X, Look at Y! ........................................... 173
9.2.2 Controllers ....................................................................... 174
9.2.3 Models ............................................................................. 175
9.3 Causes, Complexity and Dynamics ............................................... 177
9.4 Glimpses of a New Territory .......................................................... 179
References ................................................................................................. 179
10 Complexity ............................................................................................... 181
10.1 Complicated vs. Complex Systems ............................................... 183
10.2 Adequate Models ........................................................................... 184
10.3 Natural Complexity........................................................................ 187
10.4 Two Principles ............................................................................... 189
References ................................................................................................. 191
11 Impredicativity ........................................................................................ 193
11.1 A First Glance at Impredicativity .................................................. 194
11.2 Basic Properties of Impredicative Systems.................................... 197
11.3 The Impredicativity of Social Systems .......................................... 199
11.3.1 Systems Over Systems ..................................................... 201
11.3.2 Inside and Outside ........................................................... 204
11.4 Error ............................................................................................... 206
References ................................................................................................. 209
12 T he Modeling Relation ........................................................................... 211
12.1 Introductory Aspects ...................................................................... 211
12.2 Qualities and Observables ............................................................. 214
12.3 Sequential and Hierarchical Cycles ............................................... 217
12.3.1 R elational Diagram .......................................................... 219