Intermarket Analysis PDF
Preview Intermarket Analysis
ffirs.qxd10/31/0312:31PMPageiii Intermarket Analysis Profiting from Global Market Relationships JOHN MURPHY John Wiley &Sons, Inc. ffirs.qxd10/31/0312:31PMPageiii ffirs.qxd 10/31/03 12:31PM Pagei Intermarket Analysis ffirs.qxd 10/31/03 12:31PM Pageii Founded in 1807, John Wiley & Sons is the oldest independent publishing company in the United States. With offices in North America, Europe, Aus- tralia, and Asia, Wiley is globally committed to developing and marketing print and electronic products and services for our customers’ professional and personal knowledge and understanding. The Wiley Trading series features books by traders who have survived the market’s ever changing temperament and have prospered—some by re- inventing systems, others by getting back to basics. Whether a novice trader, professional or somewhere in-between, these books will provide the advice and strategies needed to prosper today and well into the future. For a list of available titles, please visit our Web site at www.WileyFinance.com. ffirs.qxd10/31/0312:31PMPageiii Intermarket Analysis Profiting from Global Market Relationships JOHN MURPHY John Wiley &Sons, Inc. ffirs.qxd 10/31/03 12:31PM Pageiv Copyright © 2004 by John Murphy. All rights reserved. Some of the figures in Chapters 1, 2, and 3 were created by Knight Ridder’s Tradecenter. Tradecenter is a registered trademark of Knight Ridder’s Financial Information. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey. Published simultaneously in Canada. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmit- ted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scan- ning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Section 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authoriza- tion through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400, fax 978-646-8600, or on the web at www.copyright.com. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, 201-748-6011, fax 201-748-6008, e-mail: [email protected]. Limit of Liability/Disclaimer of Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in preparing this book, they make no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this book and specifically dis- claim any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. No warranty may be created or extended by sales representatives or written sales materials. The advice and strategies contained herein may not be suitable for your situation. You should consult with a professional where appropriate. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential, or other damages. For general information on our other products and services, or technical support, please contact our Customer Care Department within the United States at 800-762-2974, outside the United States at 317-572-3993 or fax 317-572-4002. Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. For more information about Wiley products, visit our web site at www.wiley.com. ISBN: 0-471-02329-9 Printed in the United States of America. 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 ffirs.qxd 10/31/03 12:31PM Pagev To Anne, a great poet and to Tim, a great brother ffirs.qxd 10/31/03 12:31PM Pagevi ftoc.qxd 10/31/03 12:35PM Pagevii Contents Acknowledgments ix Introduction to Intermarket Analysis xi 1. A Review of the 1980s 1 2. 1990 and the First Persian Gulf War 17 3. The Stealth Bear Market of 1994 33 4. The 1997 Asian Currency Crisis and Deflation 51 5. 1999 Intermarket Trends Leading to Market Top 65 6. Review of Intermarket Principles 81 7. The NASDAQ Bubble Bursts in 2000 97 8. Intermarket Picture in Spring 2003 115 9. Falling Dollar During 2002 Boosts Commodities 131 10. Shifting from Paper to Hard Assets 145 11. Futures Markets and Asset Allocation 159 12. Intermarket Analysis and the Business Cycle 179 13. The Impact of the Business Cycle on Market Sectors 199 14. Diversifying with Real Estate 217 15. Thinking Globally 235 Appendix 247 Index 263 vii ftoc.qxd 10/31/03 12:35PM Pageviii
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