Intelligent Decision Support in Process Environments PDF
Preview Intelligent Decision Support in Process Environments
Nato ASI Series (closed) Advanced Science Institutes Series Erik Hollnage · Giuseppe Mancini David D. Woods E ditors Intelligent Decision Support in Process Environments Intelligent Decision Support inProcess Environments NATO ASI Series Advanced ScienceInstitutesSeries AseriespresentingtheresultsofactivitiessponsoredbytheNATOScienceCommittee, whichaimsatthedisseminationofadvancedscientificandtechnologicalknowledge, withaviewtostrengtheninglinksbetweenscientificcommunities. TheSeriesispublishedbyaninternationalboardofpublishersinconjunctionwiththe NATOScientificAffairsDivision ALifeSciences PlenumPublishingCorporation BPhysics LondonandNewYork CMathematicaland D.ReidelPublishingCompany PhysicalSciences Dordrecht.BostonandLancaster o Behavioural and MartinusNijhoffPublishers SocialSciences Boston,TheHague,DordrechtandLancaster EAppliedSciences F Computerand Springer-Verlag SystemsSciences BerlinHeidelbergNewYorkTokyo GEcologicalSciences SeriesF:ComputerandSystemsSciencesVol.21 Intelligent Decision Support in Process Environments Editedby Erik Hollnagel ComputerResourcesInternationalA/S Vesterbrogade1ADK-1620CopenhagenV/DENMARK Giuseppe Mancini CommissionofEuropeanCommunities JointResearchCentre,IspraEstablishment 1-21020ISPRA(Varese)/ITALY David D,Woods WestinghouseResearch&DevelopmentCenter BeulahRoad,Pittsburgh,PA15235/USA Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH PublishedincooperationwithNATOScientificAffairsDivision Proceedingsofthe NATOAdvancedStudyInstituteon IntelligentDecisionSupport in ProcessEnvironmentsheldinSanMiniato,Italy,September16-27, 1985 IISSBBNN 997788--33--664422--5500333311--33 IISSBBNN 997788--33--664422--5500332299--00 ((eeBBooookk)) DDOOIl 1100..11000077//997788--33--664422--5500332299--00 LibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationData.NATOAdvancecStudyInsttiuteonIntelligentDecisionSupportin ProcessEnvironments(1985:SanMiniato,Italy)Intelligentdecisionsupportinprocessenvironments.(NATOASI series.SeriesF,Computerandsystemsciences;vol,21)"ProceecrqsottheNATOAdvancecStudyInstituteon IntelligentDecisionSupportinProcessEnvironmentsheld,nSanMiniato.ltaly,September16-27.1985"- Lp.verso. 1.Declsion-makin~ongresses.2.Artfiicialintelligence-Congresses.1.Hollnagel,Erik,1941-.11.Mancini. Giuseppe,1940-.III.Woods.DavidD.,1952-IV.NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization.ScientificAffairsDivision.V.Title. VI.Series:NATOASIseries.SeriesF,Computerandsystemsciences,no.21.T57.95.N371985658.4'0386-6742 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.Allrightsarereserved,whetherthewholeorpartofthematerialisconcerned specificallythoseofIranslating.reprinting,re-useofillustrations,broadcastings,reproductionbyphotocopying machineorsimilarmeans,andstorageindatabanks.Under§54oftheGermanCopyrightLawwherecopiesare madeforotherthanprivateuse,afeeispayableto"VerwertungsgesellschaftWort",Munich. ©Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg1986 OriginallypublishedbySpringer-VerlagBerlinHeidelbergNewYorkin1986. 2145/3140-543210 NATOADVANCEDSTUDYINSTITUTE INTELLIGENTDECISIONSUPPORTINPROCESSENVIRONMENTS INTELLIGENT DECISION SUPPORT September16- 27,1985,SanMiniato,ltaly Sponsoredby DELPHI(I),IntelJiCorp(USA) SystemsDesigners(UK),TEMA(I) NATOScientificAffairsDivision Preface ThisbookcontainstheessenceofthepapersandthediscussionsfromatwoweeklongAdvanced StudyInstitute(ASI)heldinSeptember 1985.TheideaofhavinganASIaboutthetopicofIntelligent Decision Support (IDS)systems goes back to a NATO workshop on Human Error held at the RockefellerCenter inBellagio,Italy,inSeptember 1983 Inawayitgoeseven furtherbacksincethe BellagioworkshopcontinuedaseriesofNATOASlsandworkshops onadvanced human-machine systemsthatstarted adecadeagoin1976.ThepresentASI therefore representsneitherabeginning noranend,butisratherasnapshotofthefrontiersofthinkingaboutman-machinesystemsasthey lookedin1985. One problem thatwas important in 1983, and which remains so today, was to improve the understandingof human decisionmaking and behaviour in particularly demanding applications, suchasthecontrol ofcomplexindustrialprocesses.Onewayoftryingtosolvethisproblemwasto organise ahigh-levelmeetingwhere therelevantdifferentscientificdisciplines couldconverge and interact. Consequently three oftheparticipantsintheBellagioworkshop- ErikHollnagel, Giuseppe Mancini, and David Woods, supported by a technical programme committee consisting of Don Norman,JensRasmussen, JamesReason, andGiuseppeVolta- undertook toprepareanddirect such a meeting. During the initial discussions the topic of themeeting was defined to be the applicationofintelligentdecisionaidsinprocess environments, andthisinturnbecamethetitleof theASI. TheScientificAffairsDivisionofNATOawarded agrantfortheorganisationofanAdvanced StudyInstitute BecausethetopicoftheASI wasconsideredtobeofindustrialaswellasacademic interest.itwasincludedintherecentlyestablishedNATODoubleJumpprogramme,whichspecifi cally aimsat promoting cooperation between universities and industries in NATOcountries. This permitted theASI directorstoobtainadditionalfundsfromthefollOWingfoursponsors,tosupplement thefinancialsupportprovidedbyNATO: DELPHI(Italy),IntelliCorp (USA),SystemsDesigners(U.K.), andTEMA (Italy). TheASIentitled'Intelligent DecisionAidsinProcess Environments' tookplace at 'ICappuccini'inSanMiniato(Italy)from 16thto27thofSeptember1985 The ASI was attended by sixty-nine participants, of which 19 were lecturers, comingfrom 14 differentcountriesandtwo internationalorganisations. ThemagnificentTuscansettingprovided an idealbackgroundfor twoweeksofintensive,stimulatingandwide-ranging discussions.Thisbook containsthepaperspresentedbythe19invitedlecturers,anumberofselectedshortpapers from theparticipants,abstractsoftheothershort papers,andtheresultsofthepaneldiscussions held duringthemeeting.Thismaterialhasbeeneditedtoreduceoverlapsandprovideaconsistentstyle. The orderof the papershas been revisedto present thereader with a more coherent structure. Althoughgreatcarehasbeenexercisedbytheeditors,someerrors andinconsistenCiesmaystillbe present.Wehopethereaderwillforgivethat.Ourmaingoalhasbeentoeditandpublishthebookas quicklyaspossiblesothatitcantrulyserveitspurposeasasnapshotofthecurrentstateofthinking. Weexpectthatthebookwillbeofvaluetoanyonewhoisinterested intheproblemofIntelligent decisionsupportsystemsinindustnalapplications.Wehopethatideasandperspectivespresented here can be used by the variety of engineers, plant operators, managers, and industrial and academicresearchersfromtherelevanttechnicalandsocialsciencedisciplinesthattodaycollabo ratetosolvetheproblemsinadvancedprocesscontrol. VIII Acknowledgements.We aredeeply gratefulto theNATO Scientific Affairs Division, DELPHI,Intelli Corp,SystemsDesigners Ltd, and TEMA forhavingsupported andfinancedtheASIon Intelligent DecisionAidsinProcess Environments,onwhich thisbookisbased.Wearealsoverygrateful to DonaldNorman,JensRasmussen,JamesReason,andGiuseppeVoltawhointheirroleastechnical programmecommittee membersprovided uswith ideas, adviceand newperspectivesfromtheir considerable experience. We further wish to thank the OECD Halden Reactor Project (Halden, Norway),ComputerResourcesInternationalNS(Copenhagen,Denmark),theCommissionofEuro peanCommunitiesJointResearchCentre(lspra.Italy),andtheWestinghouseResearch&Develop mentCentre(Pittsburgh,USA)forhavingallowedustospendpartofourtimetoorganisetheASIand edit thisbook,aswellasfortechnicaland organisationalsupport.We are, ofcourse, indebted to those who contributed to this book; not only did they provide the 'meal' of the ASI but their compliancewithstrictdeadlinesallowedustoproducethefinalmanuscriptinlessthansixmonths. Special thanks arefinally due to the staff of 'ICappuccini' at San Miniatofor having offered an exceptionallywarmenvironmentforthemeeting. Copenhagen,December19S5 ErikHollnagel GiuseppeMancini DavidD.Woods Introduction The increasing complexityof technological systems hasshifted thedemands on human perfor mancefrom a mechanical/physical level to a cognitive level. The role of the humanin complex systems is to act as a supervisor of automated or semiautomated resourceswith goal setting, problemsolving,anddecisionmakingasthe primary tasks. Whilethenegativeconsequences of possiblemalfunctioninghave grown,thetolerances forperformance variabilityhavebeenreduced andthedemands toaccurate andsafeperformanceincreased,therebyleavingthehumanoperator inaverydifficultposition.Atthesametime,advancesincomputerscience(e.g.automateddecision makers, object oriented programming, and expert systems) have provided new possibilitiesto supporthumanperformancethatchallengeestablishedman-machinesystemdesignprinciples. Decision making hasemerged asthefocal point fortheoften conflictingdemands to human action. To ease the operator's task one must reduce these demands by incorporating basic intelligence functions in the man-machine interface. Butit isessential that an intelligent interface supportstheoperator'sdecisionmaking ratherthan replacespartsofit,i.e.thatitisatoolratherthan a prosthesis. The former mayimprove thetask, whilethelatterwillsurely aggravate it.Thelogic behinddecisionmaking hasbeenconsiderablyextended inrecent years,forinstancebyfuzzy-set theoryandpossibilitytheory.Acleardistinction hasalsoemergedbetween domainspecificknowl edge anddecisionmaking strategies.Decisionmaking is nolonger regarded assimplythestrict following ofasingle setofrulesorastrategy,butmustalsoincludetheselection oftheappropriate rulesandthepossibleswitchbetweenthem asthedecisionevolves,ie.metaleveldecisions. The aimof thisASI was to identifythe knowns and unknownsof intelligent systems that can support human decision makinginprocess environments.The focus wasthefunctionalratherthan the analytical aspects of suchsystems. The emphasison andthedevelopment of systems that performcognitivetasks requireacorrespondingshiftinthemultipledisciplinesthatsupporteffective man-machinesystems.Itrequirescontributionsfrom decisiontheory, theoreticalandapplied: from philosophyandlogic;fromprocess control theory andinformation science;from cognitivepsychol ogy and the studyof human performance and human error; and from artificial intelligence and computerscience. Thiswasachievedbydescribing (1)thefoundationprovided bydecisiontheory, (2)theproblemsofdecisionmaking inprocess environments,(3)thecognitiveaspectsofdecision making,and(4)thepossibilitiesofartificial intelligenceandadvancedcomputerapplications.TheASI aimedtosynthesiseandintegratedevelopmentsinallfourareas. As mentioned in thepreface,this ASIjoineda seriesofothermeetings that allhad dealt with problemsofman-machinesystems.Thefivemajorpreviousmeetingswere: 1976 MonitoringBehaviourandSupervisoryPerformance Berchtesgaden, WestGermany 1977 TheoryandMeasurementofMentalLoad Mati,Greece 1979 ChangesinNatureandQualityofWorkingLife Thessaloniki,Greece 1981 HumanDetectionandDiagnosisofSystemFailures Roskilde,Denmark 1983 HumanError Bellagio,Italy x Thepresent ASIusedtheinterdisciplinarycooperationandknowledge foundation established in theprevious conferences toaddress theproblems ofcognitiveman-machinesystems.Duringthe twoweeksspecialistsfrom theabove-mentioned fieldsworked togethertoadvance thesymhesis of knowledge needed forthedevelopmentandevaluationofsuchjointcognitivesystems, presentthe currentunsolvedproblems,andpointtopossiblesolutions.Theoutcomeisdocumentedinthisbook. Whereas most readers of thisbook probablywill have a goodunderstanding of whatdecision makinganddecision supportsystems are, it maybe useful todescribe brieflywhatismeantby process environmentsandhowdecisionmakinginprocessenvironmentsdiffersfromothertypes of decisionmaking. Process environments arefirstof allcharacterised byhaving short time constants.Thedecision makermustconstantly payattentiontotheprocess becausethestateofitchangesdynamically; if he fails to do sohewilllosecontrol.Iftimewasnotthatcritical itwouldbepossible toleavethe processandlookforinformationinotherplaces,consultavailableexpertsandknowledgebases,etc. Touseanexamplefrom medicine,iftime isnotcriticaloneisdealingwithapopulationphenome non,forexampletheeffectsofsmoking; iftime iscritical oneisdealingwith anindividualphenome non, forexampletoxification. Ifthereisno time pressureonecan always refer to datafrom the populationandneglecttheprocesswithoutendangeringit Formaldecisiontheoriesdogenerallynotcontainanyelementoftime(cf. thepaperbyGiuseppe Volta), hencefailtorecognise anessentialattributeofprocess environments. Theyarethereforenot directlyapplicablebutrequirefurtherdevelopmentandmodification. Anothercharacteristicofprocessenvironmentsistheuncertaintyaboutdata, i.e. oneisuncertain aboutwhatthenextdatummaybe.There islessthancompletepredictabilityofwhatevidencewill appear,bothon thelevelof individualprocess parametersandon the levelofthe process asa whole.Theuncertaintydoesnotonlyarisefromtheimperfectionorbreakdownofsinglecomponents asinnormal reliabilityanalysisorProbabilisticRiskAnalysis.Farmoreimportantistheuncertaintyof the evidencethat comesfromthedynamicsand complexityoftheprocess assuch.This lackof certaintyisinconflictwithsomeofthemainassumptionsofbothnormative anddescriptivedecision theoryandnaturallymakesdecisionsmoredifficult(cf.thecommentsbyGeorgeApostolakis). Processenvironmentsarefurthercharacterisedbybeingdynamic,byhavingmultipleandpossibly conflictinggoals,andbyhaVing incompleteinformation.Thelattermayleadtotradeoffsbetweenthe speed and quality of the decision. Decision making in process environments normally means multipledecisionsbasedonpartialinformation,withlittlechancetoconsiderallthealternativesorto make revisions. It is thus verydifferent from the orderly world that is assumed by conventional decisiontheories- andprovidedbymostoftheexperimentscarriedoutinthebehavioralsciences. ThepresentationsanddiscussionsattheAS!. aswellasthepapersinthisbook,areorganised in foursections corresponding tothefourmainaspectsofIntelligentDecisionSupportsystems.These are decision theory, cognitive engineering, systems engineering, and artificial intelligence. The developmentandapplicationofIntelligentDecision Support systems mustbebasedonacombina tionofthesefouraspects,asnoneofthem issufficientonitsown. Eachofthem referagain toother scientific disciplines someof which, like cybernetics,arerelated toseveral aspectsof Intelligent Decision Support. ThepresentationsanddiscussionsatthisASI clearly showed theinsufficiencyof anyone oftheseaspects toaccountcompletelyforthefunctioning ofIntelligent Decision Support systems, butalsodemonstrated howinterdisciplinary cooperation can bring aboutnewideasand solutions. Decision theory, whether normative or descriptive, is a natural starting point for this book. It provides a basic understanding of the theoretical andpractical issues andofthecurrentlyunre solved problems. Cognitiveengineeringgivestheviewof a recent combination of a number of disciplinesthatallfocusonthecognitiveaspectsofsystem functioning,andinparticularaddresses the relation between knowledge and decisionmaking. This viewis closelyrelated to the current developments in systems engineering which, togetherwith decision theory, represent the more established views. The section on systems engineering summarises and Identifies someof the shortcomingsofatraditionalengineeringapproach,andpointstoways inwhich theycanbesolved. Finally, the section on artifiCial intelligence provides the experience from trying to incorporate
The list of books you might like
