Innovation Patterns in Crisis and Prosperity: Schumpeter’s Long Cycle Reconsidered PDF
Preview Innovation Patterns in Crisis and Prosperity: Schumpeter’s Long Cycle Reconsidered
INNOV ATION PATTERNS IN CRISIS AND PROSPERITY Innovation Patterns in Crisis and Prosperity Schumpeter's Long Cycle Reconsidered Alfred Kleinknecht Senior Fellow. Foundation/or Economic Research (SEO). University 0/ Amsterdam Forewordby Jan Tinbergen M MACMILLAN © Alfred Kleinknecht 1987 Foreword © Tbe Macmillan Press Ltd 1987 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright Act 1956 (as amended). Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. First edition 1987 Reprinted 1990 Published by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 2XS andLondon Companies and representatives throughout the world British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Kleinknecht, Alfred Innovation patterns in crisis and prosperity: Schumpeter's long cycle reconsidered 1. Long waves (Economics) I. Title 330.15'42 HB3729 ISBN 978-0-333-40745-5 (hardcover) ISBN 978-0-333-51191-6 ISBN 978-1-349-11175-6 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-11175-6 To Hanneke Contents List 01 Illustrations Xl List 01 Tables xiii Foreword by Jan Tinbergen Xv Acknowledgements xvii 1 Introduction 1 1.1 Origin and Renaissance of the Long Wave 1 1.2 Some Early Hints of Long Waves 2 1.3 The Pioneering Work of van Gelderen 3 1.3.1 The main issues 3 1.3.2 The leading sector approach 4 1.3.3 Periodic over- and under-investment of capital 5 1.3.4 Credit expansion and financial instability 5 1.3.5 Scarcity and abundance of basic materials 6 1.3.6 New territories and migration waves 7 1.3.7 Gold production 7 1.3.8 Concluding remarks 7 1.4 The Kuznets-Schumpeter Controversy 8 1.5 Structure of the Present Investigation 12 PART I TUE LONG WAVE: AREAL PUENOMENON? 2 Testing Long Waves 17 2.1 Recent Tests on Long Waves 17 2.2 A New Test on Long Waves 19 2.2.1 The test method 19 2.2.2 Selection of a long wave chronology 23 2.3 Interpreting the Outcomes 26 2.3.1 Remarks on the interpretation of the tables 26 2.3.2 Results 30 2.4 Concluding Comments 32 Appendix A2: Details About Testing Long Waves 34 VB viii Contents PART 11 LONG WAVES IN RADICAL INNOVATIONS? Introductory Remarks 53 3 Basic Innovations, Radically New Products, Major Innovations: An Assessment of Recent Research 57 3.1 Clusters of Basic Innovations? 57 3.2 Clusters of Radically New Products? 63 3.3 Summarizing the Available Data 67 3.4 Major Innovations From the Sussex Data Bank 72 4 Key and Master Patents in the Long Run: Evidence From Baker's Data 77 4.1 Origin and Nature of Baker's Data 77 4.2 Classifying and Arranging Baker's Data 80 4.3 Interpretation of Results 86 Appendix A4: Details About Baker's Data 95 5 R & D, Patenting and New Research Laboratories in a Long Wave Conten 109 6 Putting Things Together 115 PART III INNOVATION AND GROWTU PATTERNS IN TUE POSTWAR UPSWING Introductory Remarks 127 7 A Shift From Product to Process Innovation During the Postwar Upswing? 129 7.1 Summary of A vailable Evidence 129 7.2 Product and Process Innovations in the Gellman Sampie 133 7.2.1 Origin of the sampie 133 7.2.2 Classification principles 133 7.2.3 Results from the 'sector-of-origin' approach 136 7.2.4 Results of the refined classification scheme 138 7.3 Conclusions 142 Appendix A7: Detailed Data for Chapter 7 147 Contents ix 8 Radical Innovations, FoUow-through Innovations and Growth: the Example of West German Industry 159 8.1 Cross-section Indicator of Innovativeness for the Postwar Period 159 8.2 The 'Follow-through' Hypothesis 161 8.3 Innovation and Growth: A Cross-section Test for West German Manufacturing Industry (1951-77) 165 Appendix A8: Detailed Tables for Chapter 8 169 9 Patenting, Investment and Employment: A Cross-section Test for Dutch Manufacturing Industry 175 9.1 Patents as an Innovation Indicator 175 9.2 Construction of the Patenting Indicator 177 9.3 Comparing the Various Indicators 180 9.4 Sectoral Innovation Intensities and Growth Performance 182 Appendix A9: Detailed Tables for Chapter 9 188 10 Summary and Conclusions 197 10.1 Recapitulation of Principal Results 197 10.2 Some Tentative Conclusions 206 Notes and References 215 Bibliography 221 Index 230 List of Illustrations A2.1 World industrial production: 1 38 A2.2 World industrial production: 2 39 A2.3 Manufacturing production of Belgium 40 A2.4 Net national product of Germany 41 A2.5 Industrial production of France 42 A2.6 Net domestic product of France 43 A2.7 Gross domestic product of Sweden 44 A2.8 Gross domestic product of Italy 45 A2.9 Gross national product of USA 46 A2.10 Gross domestic product of UK 47 A2.11 Manufacturing production of UK 48 3.1 Basic innovations in lO-year periods (Mensch, 1975) 58 3.2 Frequency of basic innovations and basic inventions during first half of 19th century (Mensch, 1975) 58 3.3 Frequency of basic innovations and basic inventions during second half of 19th century (electrotechnical innovations) (Mensch, 1975) 59 3.4 Frequency of basic innovations and basic inventions during second half of 19th century (Chemical Innovations) (Mensch, 1975) 59 3.5 Frequency of basic innovations and basic inventions during first half of 20th century (Mensch, 1975) 60 3.6 'Radical innovations' in British Industry (1920-80) 75 4.1 Baker's significant patents (Clark et a/., 1981a) 79 4.2 Product-related patents (all except first and last) 87 4.3 Process-related patents (all except first and last) 88 4.4 Product-related patents (all except last) 89 4.5 Process-related patents (all except last) 90 4.6 Product-related patents (all) 91 4.7 Process-related patents (all) 92 A4.1 Product-related patents (first patents only) 96 A4.2 Process-related patents (first patents only) 97 A4.3 Product-related patents (last patents only) 98 A4.4 Process-related patents (last patents only) 99 5.1 US patenting (1840-1980) 110 7.1 Product-and Process-related patents 131 XI xii List 0/ Illustrations 7.2 Productlprocess classification scheme (Coombs/Kleinknecht, 1983) 134 7.3a Annual percentile shares of innovations from investment goods industries 137 7.3b Annual percentile shares of innovations from consumer goods industries 137 7.4a Annual percentile shares of innovations from eight innovative growth industries 140 7.4b Annual percentile shares of innovations from 22 traditional industries 140 7.5a Annual percentile shares of process innovations within eight innovative growth industries ('wide definition') 144 7.5b Annual percentile shares of product innovations within eight innovative growth industries ('wide definition') 144 7.6a Annual percentile shares of process innovations within eight innovative growth industries ('extended definition') 145 7.6b Annual percentile shares of product innovations within eight innovative growth industries ('extended definition') 145 A7.1 Product-and process-related patents 148 A7.2 Product-and process-related patents 149 A7.3 Product-and process-related patents 150 9.1 Annual labour and investment inputs in Dutch manufacturing industry 186
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