Innovation: Managing Risk, Not Avoiding It

172 Pages·2014·3.21 MB·English

INNOVATION:
MANAGING RISK, NOT AVOIDING IT
Evidence and Case Studies
Annual Report of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser 2014.
INNOVATION:
MANAGING RISK, NOT AVOIDING IT
Evidence and Case Studies
This volume comprises chapters which form the evidence for the Government Chief Scientific Adviser’s
Annual Report 2014, together with illustrative case studies. It should be cited as:
Annual Report of the Government Chief Scientific Adviser 2014. Innovation: Managing Risk, Not Avoiding It. Evidence and
Case Studies.
The Government Office for Science would like to thank the authors who contributed chapters, case studies and their time
towards this report and gave it freely. A full list of authors can be found on pages 6-8.
This report is intended for:
Policy-makers, legislators, and a wide range of business people, professionals, researchers and other individuals whose
interests relate to the link between risk and innovation.
The report project team was David Bennett, Graeme Collinson, Mike Edbury, Elizabeth Surkovic and Jack Wardle.
2
This report consists of contributions received from academia and industry and others outside of government. The views
expressed do not represent policy of any government or organisation.
FOREWORD
A
dvances in science and technology can yield significant societal benefits and
drive economic growth. The challenge for society is to channel evidence
about innovative technologies and their risks to improve decision making in
the area of regulation and policy making.
My annual report sets out my response as Chief Scientific Adviser to the
challenges faced by decision makers when determining policy. It considers the
different perspectives through which risk is viewed by members of the public,
business and policy-makers. The report also seeks to understand the bases for
individual and collective decisions on when and how to innovate.
To produce my report I have drawn on the expertise of a broad range of experts
and academics, who have set out the evidence about the challenges faced by policy 3
makers and regulators. I have also sought and included notable case studies which
illustrate the perspectives in the core of the report. This volume comprises that
body of evidence and associated case studies.
I am indebted to the authors of this volume for their contribution. The chapters
and case studies represent the authors’ personal views rather than those of the
Government Office for Science but their wide ranging perspectives have provided
important evidence for this project, and so have helped me develop the themes and
conclusions of my own report.

Mark Walport
Government Chief Scientific Adviser
November 2014
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CONTENTS
SECTION 1: INNOVATION AND RISK
1. Innovation, Risk And Government: Perspectives And Principles From The Social Sciences (pg. 13)
2. Future Global Trends In Innovation (pg. 25)
3. A Recent Chronology Of Public Risk Management In Government (pg. 35)
SECTION 2: MAKING CHOICES IN THE FACE OF UNCERTAINTY
4. Making Choices In The Face Of Uncertainty: Strengthening Innovation Democracy (pg. 49)
5. Holding A Wider Conversation (pg. 63)
6. The Need For A Common Language (pg. 71)
SECTION 3: FRAMING RISK – THE HUMAN ELEMENT
7. How People Estimate Risks In Everyday Life (pg. 87)
8. Perceptions Of Risk (pg. 93)
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SECTION 4: CONTEXT AND FUTURES
9. Context Matters To Human Perception And Response (pg. 107)
10. Managing Existential Risk From Emerging Technologies (pg. 115)
SECTION 5: MOVING THINGS FORWARD – GOVERNANCE AND DECISION-MAKING
11. Bringing It All Together (pg. 129)
12. Ultimately A Decision Has To Be Made (pg. 137)
ANNEX: INTERNATIONAL CONTRIBUTIONS
(pg. 145)
REFERENCES
(pg. 156)
EDITOR AND CHAPTER AUTHORS
Editor Mark Peplow
Chapter 1 Nicholas Stern
I.G Patel Professor of Economics and Government, London School of Economics, President of the British Academy and
Director of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment
Rodney Boyd
Policy Analyst and Research Advisor to Professor Stern
Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and ESRC Centre for Climate Change
Economics and Policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science
Fergus Green
Policy Analyst and Research Advisor to Professor Stern
Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and ESRC Centre for Climate Change
Economics and Policy at the London School of Economics and Political Science
Reuben Finighan
Independent Consultant, Melbourne, Australia
Chapter 2 Ian Goldin
Professor of Globalisation and Development at the University of Oxford, and Director of the Oxford Martin School,
University of Oxford.
Chapter 3 Simon Pollard
Pro-Vice-Chancellor, School of Energy, Environment and Agrifood, Cranfield University
Professor of Environmental Risk Management
Sophie Rocks
Lecturer in Emerging Risks, Cranfield University Institute for Environment, Health, Risks and Futures
Chapter 4 Andy Stirling
Professor of Science and Technology Policy, Science Policy Research Unit (SPRU) and Co-Director of the ESRC STEPS
Centre, University of Sussex
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Chapter 5 Tim O’Riordan
Emeritus Professor of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich
Chapter 6 David Spiegelhalter
Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk University of Cambridge
Chapter 7 David Halpern
Chief Executive, The Behavioural Insights Team
Owain Service
Managing Director, The Behavioural Insights Team
Chapter 8 Nick Pidgeon
Professor of Environmental Psychology at Cardiff University, and Director of the Understanding Risk Research Group
Karen Henwood
Professor of Social Sciences at Cardiff University
Chapter 9 Judith Petts
Professor of Environmental Risk Management and Pro-Vice-Chancellor, University of Southampton
Chapter 10 Toby Ord
Research Fellow in the Oxford Martin School at the University of Oxford
Nick Beckstead
Research Fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute and the Department of Philosophy at the University of Oxford
Chapter 11 Joyce Tait
Professor, University of Edinburgh and Director of the Innogen Institute
Chapter 12 Lisa Jardine
Professor of Renaissance Studies at UCL
Former Chair of the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority
CASE STUDY AUTHORS
High Level Case Studies Communicating the risk of climate change
James Lyons
Synthetic Biology Senior Lecturer, University of Exeter
Lionel Clarke
Risk and Innovation in Developing Countries: A New
co-Chairman UK Synthetic Biology Leadership Council
Approach to Governing GM Crops
Richard Kitney Phil Macnaghten
Professor of BioMedical Systems Engineering at Imperial College, Professor of Geography at Durham University, and Visiting
and Co-Director of The EPSRC National Centre for Synthetic Professor at University of Campinas – UNICAMP, Brazil
Biology and Innovation and National Industrial Translation Centre
Susana Carro-Ripalda
for Synthetic Biology (SynBICITE) at Imperial College
Senior Research Fellow at Durham University
Roland Jackson
Consistency and transparency in evidence-based
Executive Chair of Sciencewise
regulation: risk and precaution in regulation of
Hydraulic Fracturing bisphenol A
Stephen Elliott Patrick Miller
Chief Executive, Chemical Industries Association Head of Science Strategy and Governance at the Food Standards
Agency
Harry Huyton
Head of Climate Change, RSPB Financial Crisis
Tom Sorell
Robert Mair
Professor of Politics and Philosophy, University of Warwick
Sir Kirby Laing Professor of Civil Engineering, Cambridge
University Making Choices In The Face Of Uncertainty
Neonicotinoid Insecticides and Insect Pollinators
Flooding
Charles Godfray
Edmund Penning-Rowsell
Hope Professor at Oxford University and Director of the Oxford
Professor of Geography at the Flood Hazard Research Centre,
Martin Programme on the Future of Food
Middlesex University and Distinguished Research Associate at the
University of Oxford Angela McLean 7
All Souls Senior Research Fellow at Oxford University and
Paul B Sayers
Director of the Oxford Martin School Institute for Emerging
Partner, Sayers and Partners LLP, UK and Senior Fellow,
Infections
Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford
Nanomaterials
Andrew Watkinson
Kamal Hossain
Professor of Environmental Sciences at the University of East
Director, Research and International at the National Physical
Anglia
Laboratory and Chair of the European Metrology Research
Natural Disasters and the Insurance Industry Association (EURAMET)
Rowan Douglas
Human Rights and Risk
CEO Capital Science & Policy Practice, Willis Group & Chairman,
Sabine Michalowski
Willis Research Network
Professor of Law, University of Essex, Director of the Essex
Julia Slingo Transitional Justice Network
Met Office Chief Scientist
Karen Hulme
Trevor Maynard Professor of Law, University of Essex, Consultant with the Essex
Head of Exposure Management and Reinsurance, Lloyd’s of Business and Human Rights Project
London
Nuclear: The Submariner’s Perspective
Innovation and Risk Rear Admiral Nigel Guild
Fukushima Chairman, Engineering Council
Anthony Carrigan
Adapting regulation to changing evidence on risks:
Lecturer in Postcolonial Literatures and Cultures at University of
delivering changes to pig inspection
Leeds
Patrick Miller
The High Value Manufacturing Catapult Head of Science Strategy and Governance at the Food Standards
Dick Elsy Agency
Chief Executive, High Value Manufacturing Catapult
Accurate Communication of Medical Risk
L’Aquila Chris Cummins
Chris Whitty Chancellor’s Fellow in Linguistics and English Language at the
Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for International University of Edinburgh
Development
Marcus Besley
Government Office for Science
CASE STUDY AUTHORS
Framing Risk – The Human Element Standards: Supporting emerging technologies as an
Social Machines: Managing Risk in a Web Enabled accelerator of innovation
World Scott Steedman
Nigel Shadbolt Director of Standards, BSI
Professor of Artificial Intelligence at the University of
Southampton and Chairman of the Open Data Institute, London
Electronic Cigarettes: Trade-Offs and Establishing
Acceptability Thresholds
Fabian Schuppert
Research Fellow, Institute for Collaborative Research in the
Humanities at Queen’s University Belfast
Aum Shinrikyo and the Move to Violence
Matthew Francis
Senior Research Associate at Lancaster University, and Editor of
RadicalisationResearch.org
Kim Knott
Professor of Religious and Secular Studies at Lancaster University,
and Global Uncertainties Leadership Fellow
Managing Risk Perception of Autonomous
Technologies: the Docklands Light Railway
Mike Esbester
Senior Lecturer in History at the University of Portsmouth and
Co-Principal Investigator on the Institution of Occupational Safety
and Health-funded project ‘The Changing Legitimacy of Health
and Safety at Work, 1960-2013’
8 Telling the Stories of Climate Change
Esther Eidinow
Assistant Professor in Ancient Greek History, University of
Nottingham
Nicky Marsh
Professor of English at the University of Southampton
Patricia Waugh
Professor in the Department of English Studies at Durham
University and also Principal Investigator on the ‘Tipping Points’
project located in the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience,
Durham University
Context and Futures
MMR, Bowel Disease, Autism and Measles
David Salisbury
Former Director of Immunisation, Department of Health, and
Visiting Professor, Imperial College, London
Policy, Decision-Making and Existential Risk
Huw Price
Bertrand Russell Professor of Philosophy and Academic Director
of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of
Cambridge
Seán Ó hÉigeartaigh
Executive Director of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk
at the University of Cambridge
Moving Things Forward – Governance and
Decision-making
A Case History on GM Crops
David Baulcombe
Royal Society Edward Penley Abraham Research Professor and
Regius Professor of Botany at University of Cambridge
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SECTION 1: INNOVATION AND RISK
Innovation involves more than just
physical products. Some 78% of the UK
economy is in services, where innovation plays
a key role.
Technological improvements will increase
productivity by as much as 25% and will generate
a predicted $3.7 to $10.8 trillion for the world
economy by 2025.
East Asian economies such as Japan, Korea
and China experienced major economic growth
in the second half of the twentieth century, driven
Twenty years ago, there
partly by ‘catch-up innovation’.
10 were fewer than 3 million
JAPAN
people with internet
1950s to 1980s
CHINA access; now there are
1978 to present nearly 2.5 billion.
SOUTH KOREA
1960s to 1980s
The Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system
in Bogota, Colombia is a good example
of (city) government-led institutional
innovation.