Index (etd.lib.metu.edu.tr) - Middle East Technical University

258 Pages·2006·1.71 MB·English

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
ANATOLIA PROJECT

A THESIS SUBMITTED TO
THE GRADUATE SCHOOL OF NATURAL AND APPLIED SCIENCES
OF
MIDDLE EAST TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY

BY

AL(cid:1) ERTU(cid:2) ERÇ(cid:1)N

IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS
FOR
THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE
IN
CIVIL ENGINEERING

APRIL 2006
Approval of the Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences

Prof. Dr. Canan ÖZGEN
Director

I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the
degree of Master of Science.

Prof. Dr. Erdal ÇOKCA
Head of Department

This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully
adequate, in scope and quality, as a thesis for the degree of Master of
Science.

Prof. Dr. H. Do(cid:3)an ALTINB(cid:1)LEK
Supervisor
Examining Committee Members

Prof. Dr. Melih Yanmaz (METU,CE)

Prof. Dr. H. Do(cid:3)an Altınbilek (METU,CE)

Asst. Prof. Dr. (cid:4)ahnaz Ti(cid:3)rek (METU,CE)

Dr. Hande Akçakoca (GAP Administration)

Faruk Volkan (M.S.) (DS(cid:1))
I hereby declare that all information in this document has been obtained
and presented in accordance with academic rules and ethical conduct. I
also declare that, as required by these rules and conduct, I have fully
cited and referenced all material and results that are not original to this
work.

Name, Last name: AL(cid:1) ERTU(cid:2) ERÇ(cid:1)N

Signature :

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ABSTRACT

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN ANATOLIA
PROJECT

Erçin, Ali Ertu(cid:3)
M.Sc., Department of Civil Engineering
Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Do(cid:3)an ALTINB(cid:1)LEK

April 2006, 237 pages

This thesis is an assessment of socio-economic development of
Southeastern Anatolia Region of Turkey after GAP Project. The aim of this
study is to analyze and discuss impacts of the GAP Project and to evaluate
achievements of the most important sustainable development project of
Turkey.
Several social and economic indicators, like demographic structure,
education, health, financial figures, industry, agriculture and energy, have
been analyzed and evaluated in order to obtain reliable and realistic
conclusions.
The main conclusion of this thesis states that Southeastern Anatolia
Region has developed both socially and economically with the impacts of
GAP Project. Rapid economic growth, increased agricultural and industrial
activities are the evidences of this development. However, another
conclusion of the study indicates that the achievements of GAP cannot
ensure the expected socio-economic development of the Region. This
conclusion shows the necessity of questioning the success of the
governance and execution of the GAP Project.

Keywords: GAP, Sustainable development, Socio-economic impacts

iv
ÖZ

GÜNEYDO(cid:2)U ANADOLU PROJES(cid:1)N(cid:1)N SOSYO-EKONOM(cid:1)K ETK(cid:1)LER(cid:1)

Erçin, Ali Ertu(cid:3)
Yüksek Lisans, (cid:1)n(cid:5)aat Mühendisli(cid:3)i Bölümü
Tez Yöneticisi: Prof. Dr. Do(cid:3)an Altınbilek

Nisan 2006, 237 sayfa

Bu tez Güneydo(cid:3)u Anadolu Bölgesi’nde GAP Projesi sonrasında
gerçekle(cid:5)en sosyo-ekonomik geli(cid:5)melerin bir incelemesidir. Bu çalı(cid:5)manın
amacı GAP Projesinin sosyal ve ekonomik etkilerini ara(cid:5)tırmak ve ayrıca
Türkiye’nin en önemli sürdürülebilir kalkınma projesinin ba(cid:5)arısını
de(cid:3)erlendirmektir.
Güvenilir ve gerçekçi sonuçlara ula(cid:5)mak için nüfus, e(cid:3)itim, sa(cid:3)lık,
ekonomi, sanayi, tarım ve enerji gibi konularda çe(cid:5)itli sosyo-ekonomik veriler
incelenip de(cid:3)erlendirilmi(cid:5)tir.
Bu çalı(cid:5)manın öngördü(cid:3)ü en önemli sonuç Güneydo(cid:3)u Anadolu
Bölgesi’nin GAP’ın etkisiyle sosyal ve ekonomik olarak hızla geli(cid:5)mekte
oldu(cid:3)udur. Hızlı ekonomik büyüme, artan endüstriyel ve tarımsal aktiviteler
bu geli(cid:5)menin kanıtlarıdır. Buna ra(cid:3)men, bu tezin öngördü(cid:3)ü di(cid:3)er bir önemli
sonuç ise projenin bölgede beklenen düzeyde kalkınmayı sa(cid:3)layamadı(cid:3)ıdır.
Tezin bu önermesi GAP’ın yönetimsel ve uygulama olarak ba(cid:5)arısının
sorgulanması gerekti(cid:3)inin bir göstergesidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler : GAP, Sürdürülebilir kalkınma, Sosyo-ekonomik geli(cid:5)me

v
To My Mother

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I would like to express my deepest gratitude to my supervisor Prof. Dr. H.
Do(cid:3)an ALTINB(cid:1)LEK for his guidance, advice, criticism, encouragements and
insight throughout the research.

I would also like to give my special thanks to Asst. Prof. Dr. (cid:4)ahnaz T(cid:1)(cid:2)REK
for her efforts, consulting during all my academic life and especially for her
continuous belief in me.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

PLAGIARISM ……………………………………………………………………………………………….(cid:1)(cid:1)(cid:1)
ABSTRACT....................................................................................................iv
ÖZ...................................................................................................................v
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...............................................................................vii
TABLE OF CONTENTS............................................................................... viii
LIST OF TABLES..........................................................................................xii
LIST OF FIGURES.....................................................................................xviii
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS…………………………………………………………………………..X(cid:1)
CHAPTERS
1. INTRODUCTION....................................................................................1
1.1 History of GAP Project....................................................................3
1.2 Objectives of GAP...........................................................................4
1.3 Sustainable Development Indicators...............................................6
1.4 Selected Variables..........................................................................6
1.4.1 Social Variables....................................................................7
1.4.2 Socio-economic Variables....................................................8
1.4.2.1 Employment.............................................................8
1.4.2.2 Tourism....................................................................8
1.4.3 Economic Variables..............................................................9
1.4.3.1 Financial Figures......................................................9
1.4.3.2 Agriculture................................................................9
1.4.3.3 Industry....................................................................9
1.4.4 Energy................................................................................10
1.5 Socio-economic Development of the Region................................10
2. SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT...................................................................13
2.1 Population.....................................................................................13
2.1.1 Total Population..................................................................14

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2.1.2 Population Growth Rate......................................................17
2.1.3 Rural and Urban Population Structure................................19
2.1.4 Age Dependency Ratio.......................................................22
2.1.5 Population Density..............................................................23
2.1.6 Average Household Size and Fertility Rate........................24
2.1.7 Population movements.......................................................27
2.1.8 Population Structure and Movements in Adıyaman............31
2.2 Education.......................................................................................33
2.2.1 Literacy ratio........................................................................35
2.2.2 Pre-school Education...........................................................37
2.2.3 Primary Education................................................................39
2.2.4 Secondary Education...........................................................50
2.2.5 Higher Education.................................................................66
2.2.6 Libraries and Readers..........................................................67
2.3 Health............................................................................................72
2.3.1 General Situation.................................................................72
2.3.2 Hospitals..............................................................................74
2.3.3 Health Personnel.................................................................83
2.3.4 Medical Facilities..................................................................99
2.3.5 Infant and Child Mortality...................................................103
3. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT...........................................................105
3.1 Economic Activities.....................................................................105
3.2 Gross National Product...............................................................111
3.3 Income level................................................................................115
3.4 Banking.......................................................................................117
3.5 Investments and Budgets...........................................................119
3.6 Incentives....................................................................................123
3.7 Import and Export.......................................................................124
3.8 Employment Generation.............................................................126
3.9 Tourism.......................................................................................132

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4. AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT..................................................134
4.1 Harran Plain...............................................................................135
4.2 Change in Agricultural Output and Crop Pattern........................138
4.2.1 Total Agricultural Production............................................138
4.2.2 Field Crops ......................................................................146
4.2.2.1 Cereals................................................................157
4.2.2.2 Industrial Crops...................................................173
5. INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT.........................................................187
5.1 Manufacturing Industry..............................................................190
6. ENERGY...........................................................................................196
6.1 Comparison of Atatürk Dam with other energy technologies.....199
6.1.1 Comparison of operation and maintenance cost..............200
6.1.2 Comparison according to cost of energy source..............201
6.1.3 Comparison of investment costs......................................202
6.1.4 Comparison According to Foreign Exchange Rates........202
6.1.5 Comparison According to CO Emission..........................203
2
6.1.6 Impacts on Public Health.................................................205
6.2 Energy Consumption Potential in the Region............................206
7. RESULTS & DISCUSSIONS............................................................210
7.1 Results.......................................................................................210
7.1.1 Social Development.........................................................210
7.1.2 Change in Economy.........................................................215
7.1.3 Change in Agriculture......................................................218
7.1.4 Change in Industry Sector...............................................222
7.1.5 Energy Sector..................................................................223
7.2 Discussions of the Results.........................................................224
7.2.1 Social Sector....................................................................224
7.2.2 Economy..........................................................................228
7.2.3 Agriculture........................................................................230
7.2.4 Industry............................................................................231
7.2.5 Energy.............................................................................232

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