In the Wake of Chaos: Unpredictable Order in Dynamical Systems

191 Pages·1993·5.528 MB·English

by  Stephen H. Kellert

in the wake of chaos
Science and Its Conceptual Foundations
David L. Hull, Editor
STEPHEN H. llELLERT
k
in the
wa
E!
of
chaos
Unpredidable Order in Dynamical Systems
The University of Chicago Press
Chicago and London
The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637
The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London
© 1993 by The University of Chicago
All rights reserved. Published 1993
Paperback edition 1994
Printed in the United States of America
02 01 00 99 98 97 96 95 94 2345
ISBN: 0-226-42974-1 (cloth)
0-226-42976-8 (paper)
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Kellert, Stephen H.
In the wake of chaos : unpredictable order in dynamical systems
Stephen H. Kellert.
p. cm. - (Science and its conceptual foundations)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. Chaotic behavior in systems. 2. Science-Philosophy.
1. Title. II. Series.
Ql72.5.C45K45 1993
003'.7-dc20 92-30355
§ The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of
the American National Standard for Information Sciences-Permanence of
Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48-1984.
[ontents
Acknowledgments vii
Prologue ix
1
What Is Chaos Theory?
2
Varieties of the Impossible 29
3
Unpeeling the Layers of Determinism 49
4
On the Way to Dynamic Understanding 77
5
Beyond the Clockwork Hegemony 119
References 159
Index 169
y

Ar:knowlE!dqrnE!nts
My first debt is to my teachers, beginning with Catherine Ko
nefal and ending with those who guided me through graduate
work: Arthur Fine, David Hull, and Stephen Toulmin. Special
thanks to Arthur for his help and, yes, inspiration. Thanks
also to Edie Fisher, Roberta Harvey, and Robert Alge, and to
Georgia Warnke, R. I. G. Hughes, and John Franks. Thanks
to Rick Jensen for introducing me to the study of dynamical
chaos in his class at Yale in 1984.
Several people read various chapters at various stages and
offered helpful suggestions, including Peter Kosso, Roger
Jones, Mark Stone, Richard Sorrenson, Eric Winsberg, Jeff
Kosokoff, and the members of my seminar on philosophy and
chaos theory in the Spring of 1991. Opportunities to give
presentations of some of the ideas in this book have also pro
vided occasions for useful criticisms and advice from Linda
Wessels, Noretta Koertge, John Winnie, and many others. I
have benefited greatly from the careful readings and detailed
comments of Jerry Gollub and an anonymous reviewer. I
would like to thank Susan Abrams at the University of Chi
cago Press for all her help in making this book possible. Cru
cial encouragement along the way has come from Heinrich
Von Staden, Meredith Williams, Tom Gieryn, and the Science
and Literature Affinity Group at Indiana University.
Many thanks are also due my friends, including Margaret
MacLaren, Julie Rolston, Belinda Edmondson, and Pablo
DeGreiff, as well as Clare Rossini and Donna Choco!. Thanks
to my mother, and to my father, for their support. And special
thanks to Lisa Heldke for her encouragement and insight.
vii

Prologue
Chaos theory is not as interesting as it sounds. How could it
be? After all, the name "chaos theory" makes it seem as if
science has discovered some new and definitive knowledge
about utterly random and incomprehensible phenomena.
Actually, what seems to be going on is a kind of magic trick
like the one Ludwig Wittgenstein described as putting some
thing in a drawer and closing it, then turning around and
opening the drawer, and removing the object with an expres
sion of surprise. By calling certain physical systems "chaotic,"
scientists lead us to think that they are totally unintelligible
just a muddle of things happening with no connections or
structures. So when they find interesting mathematical pat
terns in these unpredictable systems, they can exclaim that
they have discovered the secrets of "order within chaos," even
though only by christening these systems chaotic in the first
place can they make such an impressive result possible.
Now there is nothing wrong with good marketing, espe
cially when scientists need to present their work in attractive
terms to publishers, journalists, funding agencies, and other
scientists. The central insight of chaos theory-that systems
governed by mathematically simple equations can exhibit elab
orately complex, indeed unpredictable, behavior-is rightly
seen as new and important. But sometimes there may be a
temptation for researchers to hype their results, to make chaos
theory sound too interesting, as if it will revolutionize our
thinking not just about the physical world but about art and
economics and religion as well. Considering that quantum
Ix