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Improved Operational Testing and Evaluation and Methods of Combining Test Information for the Stryker Family of Vehicles and Related Army Systems: Phase II Report PDF

229 Pages·2004·7.31 MB·English
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Improved Operational Testing and Evaluation and MethodsofCombining Test Informationforthe StrykerFamilyofVehiclesandRelatedArmySystems Phase II Report Panel on Operational Test Design and Evaluation of the Interim Armored Vehicle Committee on National Statistics Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. DASW01-02-C-0011 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Defense. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recom- mendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09102-0 (Book) Library of Congress Catalog Card Number ISBN 0-309-52817-8 (PDF) Additional copies of this report are available from National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Wash- ington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2004 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2004). Improved Operational Testing and Evalua- tion and Methods of Combining Test Information for the Stryker Family of Vehicles and Related Army Systems. Phase II Report, Panel on Operational Test Design and Evaluation of the Interim Armored Vehicle, Committee on National Statistics. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal govern- ment. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the supe- rior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sci- ences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the ex- amination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is presi- dent of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the Na- tional Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org PANEL ON OPERATIONAL TEST DESIGN AND EVALUATION OF THE INTERIM ARMORED VEHICLE STEPHEN M. POLLOCK (Chair), Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan SETH BONDER, Consultant, Ann Arbor, Michigan MARION BRYSON, North Tree Fire International, Marina, California WILLIAM Q. MEEKER, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University VIJAYAN NAIR, Department of Statistics, University of Michigan JOHN E. ROLPH, Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California FRIEDRICH-WILHELM SCHOLZ, The Boeing Company, Seattle, Washington HAL S. STERN, Department of Statistics, University of California, Irvine ALYSON G. WILSON, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico JAMES P. McGEE, Study Director MICHAEL L. COHEN, Staff Officer MICHAEL J. SIRI, Project Assistant v COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 2003-2004 JOHN E. ROLPH (Chair), Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California JOSEPH G. ALTONJI, Department of Economics, Yale University ROBERT BELL, AT&T Laboratories, Florham Park, New Jersey LAWRENCE D. BROWN, Department of Statistics, University of Pennsylvania ROBERT M. GROVES, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan PAUL HOLLAND, Educational Testing Service, Princeton, New Jersey JOEL HOROWITZ, Department of Economics, Northwestern University WILLIAM KALSBEEK, Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina ARLEEN LEIBOWITZ, School of Public Policy Research, University of California, Los Angeles VIJAYAN NAIR, Department of Statistics, University of Michigan DARYL PREGIBON, AT&T Laboratories, Florham Park, New Jersey KENNETH PREWITT, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University NORA CATE SCHAEFFER, Department of Sociology, University of Wisconsin, Madison ANDREW A. WHITE, Director vi Contents PREFACE ix EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1 INTRODUCTION TO COMBINING INFORMATION 11 2 EXAMPLES OF COMBINING INFORMATION 17 Combining Information to Improve Test Design, 17 Combining Information to Improve Estimation, 22 3 COMBINING INFORMATION IN PRACTICE 40 Combining Information to Assess Suitability, Survivability, and Effectiveness, 41 Issues in Combining Information for Reliability Assessment, 42 4 PREREQUISITES FOR COMBINING INFORMATION 53 Need for a Broader Definition of Data, 54 Need for a Test Data Archive, 57 Representations, 61 Combining Information for Complex Systems, 65 Need for Additional Statistical Capabilities, 66 vii viii CONTENTS 5 TESTING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES POSED BY THE FUTURE COMBAT SYSTEM 69 Testing Challenges, 71 Testing Opportunities, 73 Strategy for Testing and Evaluation, 75 REFERENCES 77 APPENDICES A Further Details Concerning the Bearing Cage Example 81 B Technical Details on Combining Information in Estimation: A Treatment of Separate Failure Modes 85 C The Rocket Development Program 90 D Acronyms and Abbreviations 99 PHASE I REPORT: Operational Test Design and Evaluation of the Interim Armored Vehicle 103 BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF PANEL MEMBERS AND STAFF 213 Preface T he U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command (ATEC) is respon- sible for the operational testing and evaluation of Army systems in development. As the Stryker/Stryker Brigade Combat Team (SBCT, formerly named the Interim Brigade Combat Team, IBCT) en- tered into the final stage of development, ATEC accelerated detailed prepa- rations for its initial operational test (IOT). ATEC was faced with the chal- lenge of developing a test design sophisticated enough to address the complex system of systems that Stryker/SBCT represents. Furthermore, since the reliability requirement of 1,000 miles between operational mis- sion failures was unlikely to be demonstrated at typical levels of statistical inference based solely on the IOT, the possibility of using developmental test data jointly with operational test data needed to be considered. Cogni- zant that a previous National Research Council panel had issued a 1998 report stressing the need to examine models for combining information in order to address this limitation of operational test data, and considering in addition that report’s examination of test design and measures issues, ATEC requested that the National Research Council form the Panel on Opera- tional Test Design and Evaluation of the Interim Armored Vehicle (Stryker). The charge to this panel was to explore three issues concerning the IOT plans for the Stryker/SBCT. First, the panel was asked to examine the measures selected to assess the performance and effectiveness of the Stryker/ SBCT in comparison both to requirements and to the baseline system. Second, the panel was asked to review the test design for the Stryker/SBCT ix

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