Improved Operational Testing and Evaluation and Methods of Combining Test Information for the Stryker Family of Vehicles and Related Army Systems: Phase II Report

229 Pages·2004·7.31 MB·English

by  Panel on Operational Test Design and Evaluation of the Interim Armored Vehicle

Improved
Operational
Testing and
Evaluation
and MethodsofCombining Test Informationforthe
StrykerFamilyofVehiclesandRelatedArmySystems
Phase II Report
Panel on Operational Test Design and Evaluation
of the Interim Armored Vehicle
Committee on National Statistics
Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of
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and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Contract No. DASW01-02-C-0011 between the National Academy
of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Defense. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recom-
mendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect
the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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Suggested citation: National Research Council. (2004). Improved Operational Testing and Evalua-
tion and Methods of Combining Test Information for the Stryker Family of Vehicles and Related Army
Systems. Phase II Report, Panel on Operational Test Design and Evaluation of the Interim Armored
Vehicle, Committee on National Statistics. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
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PANEL ON OPERATIONAL TEST DESIGN AND EVALUATION
OF THE INTERIM ARMORED VEHICLE
STEPHEN M. POLLOCK (Chair), Department of Industrial and
Operations Engineering, University of Michigan
SETH BONDER, Consultant, Ann Arbor, Michigan
MARION BRYSON, North Tree Fire International, Marina, California
WILLIAM Q. MEEKER, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University
VIJAYAN NAIR, Department of Statistics, University of Michigan
JOHN E. ROLPH, Marshall School of Business, University of Southern
California
FRIEDRICH-WILHELM SCHOLZ, The Boeing Company, Seattle,
Washington
HAL S. STERN, Department of Statistics, University of California,
Irvine
ALYSON G. WILSON, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos,
New Mexico
JAMES P. McGEE, Study Director
MICHAEL L. COHEN, Staff Officer
MICHAEL J. SIRI, Project Assistant
v
COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS
2003-2004
JOHN E. ROLPH (Chair), Marshall School of Business, University of
Southern California
JOSEPH G. ALTONJI, Department of Economics, Yale University
ROBERT BELL, AT&T Laboratories, Florham Park, New Jersey
LAWRENCE D. BROWN, Department of Statistics, University of
Pennsylvania
ROBERT M. GROVES, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan
PAUL HOLLAND, Educational Testing Service, Princeton, New Jersey
JOEL HOROWITZ, Department of Economics, Northwestern
University
WILLIAM KALSBEEK, Department of Biostatistics, University of North
Carolina
ARLEEN LEIBOWITZ, School of Public Policy Research, University of
California, Los Angeles
VIJAYAN NAIR, Department of Statistics, University of Michigan
DARYL PREGIBON, AT&T Laboratories, Florham Park, New Jersey
KENNETH PREWITT, School of International and Public Affairs,
Columbia University
NORA CATE SCHAEFFER, Department of Sociology, University of
Wisconsin, Madison
ANDREW A. WHITE, Director
vi
Contents
PREFACE ix
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
1 INTRODUCTION TO COMBINING INFORMATION 11
2 EXAMPLES OF COMBINING INFORMATION 17
Combining Information to Improve Test Design, 17
Combining Information to Improve Estimation, 22
3 COMBINING INFORMATION IN PRACTICE 40
Combining Information to Assess Suitability, Survivability, and
Effectiveness, 41
Issues in Combining Information for Reliability Assessment, 42
4 PREREQUISITES FOR COMBINING INFORMATION 53
Need for a Broader Definition of Data, 54
Need for a Test Data Archive, 57
Representations, 61
Combining Information for Complex Systems, 65
Need for Additional Statistical Capabilities, 66
vii
viii CONTENTS
5 TESTING CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES POSED
BY THE FUTURE COMBAT SYSTEM 69
Testing Challenges, 71
Testing Opportunities, 73
Strategy for Testing and Evaluation, 75
REFERENCES 77
APPENDICES
A Further Details Concerning the Bearing Cage Example 81
B Technical Details on Combining Information in Estimation: A
Treatment of Separate Failure Modes 85
C The Rocket Development Program 90
D Acronyms and Abbreviations 99
PHASE I REPORT: Operational Test Design and Evaluation of the
Interim Armored Vehicle 103
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF PANEL
MEMBERS AND STAFF 213
Preface
T
he U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command (ATEC) is respon-
sible for the operational testing and evaluation of Army systems in
development. As the Stryker/Stryker Brigade Combat Team
(SBCT, formerly named the Interim Brigade Combat Team, IBCT) en-
tered into the final stage of development, ATEC accelerated detailed prepa-
rations for its initial operational test (IOT). ATEC was faced with the chal-
lenge of developing a test design sophisticated enough to address the
complex system of systems that Stryker/SBCT represents. Furthermore,
since the reliability requirement of 1,000 miles between operational mis-
sion failures was unlikely to be demonstrated at typical levels of statistical
inference based solely on the IOT, the possibility of using developmental
test data jointly with operational test data needed to be considered. Cogni-
zant that a previous National Research Council panel had issued a 1998
report stressing the need to examine models for combining information in
order to address this limitation of operational test data, and considering in
addition that report’s examination of test design and measures issues, ATEC
requested that the National Research Council form the Panel on Opera-
tional Test Design and Evaluation of the Interim Armored Vehicle (Stryker).
The charge to this panel was to explore three issues concerning the
IOT plans for the Stryker/SBCT. First, the panel was asked to examine the
measures selected to assess the performance and effectiveness of the Stryker/
SBCT in comparison both to requirements and to the baseline system.
Second, the panel was asked to review the test design for the Stryker/SBCT
ix