Hydrological Models for Environmental Management PDF
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Hydrological Models for Environmental Management NATO Science Series ASeriespresentingtheresultsofactivitiessponsoredbytheNATOScience Committee. TheSeriesispublishedbylOSPressandKluwerAcademic Publishers,inconjunction withtheNATOScientificAffairsDivision. A. LifeSciences lOSPress B. Physics KluwerAcademicPublishers C. MathematicalandPhysical Sciences KluwerAcademicPublishers D. BehaviouralandSocial Sciences KluwerAcademicPublishers E. AppliedSciences KluwerAcademicPublishers F. ComputerandSystemsSciences lOSPress AsaconsequenceoftherestructuringoftheNATOScienceProgrammein1999,theNATOScience Serieshasbeenre-organizedandnewvolumeswillbeincorporatedintothefollowingrevised sub-seriesstructure: I. LifeandBehaviouralSciences IDSPress II. Mathematics,PhysicsandChemistry KluwerAcademicPublishers III.ComputerandSystemsScience lOSPress IV.EarthandEnvironmentalSciences KluwerAcademicPublishers V. ScienceandTechnologyPolicy IDSPress NATO-PCO-DATABASE TheNATOScienceSeriescontinuestheseriesofbookspublishedformerlyintheNATOASI Series.AnelectronicindextotheNATOASISeriesprovidesfullbibliographicalreferences(with keywordsand/orabstracts)tomorethan50000contributionsfrominternationalscientists publishedinallsectionsoftheNATOASISeries. AccesstotheNATO-PCO-DATABASEispossibleviaCD-ROM"NATO-PCO-DATABASE"with user-friendlyretrievalsoftwareinEnglish,FrenchandGerman(WTVGmbHandDATAWARE TechnologiesInc.1989). TheCD-ROMoftheNATOASISeriescanbeorderedfrom:PC0,Overijse,Belgium Series2.EnvironmentalSecurity- Vol.79 Hydrological Models for Environmental Management edited by Mikhail V. Bolgov Waler Problems Institute, Moscow, Aussia Lars Gottschalk Department of Geophysics, University of Oslo, Norway Irina Krasovskaia IGC, Sweden and Robert J. Moore Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, U.K. Springer-Science+Business Media, B.V. Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Hydrological Stochastic Models of Processes and their Applications in Problems of Environmental Preservation Moscow, Russia 23-27 November 1998 A C.I.P. Catalogue record for this book is available from the Library of Congress. ISBN 978-1-4020-0911-2 ISBN 978-94-010-0470-1 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-94-010-0470-1 Printed on acid-free paper AII Rights Reserved © 2002 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht Originally published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 2002 No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilm ing, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. CONTENTS Preface vii Acknowledgements ix ListofParticipants xi 1. Hydrometeorological extremes Bayesian analysis ofasimultaneouschange inboththemean andthe variance L.Perreault, E.Parent andB.Bobee Onthedistribution ofthemaximum ofarandom sample 17 V.F.Pisarenko Stochastic model oftherunofffluctuations forrivers withafloodflow regime 23 AY. Khristoforov,G.Y. Kruglova andT.Y. Samborski 2. Stochastic modelsoflong-termandseasonal variationinwaterbalance Astudy ofthesynchronicityofannual runofffluctuations 39 V.M.Evstigneev andT.A.Aximenxo Stochastic models withperiodic-correlationofseasonal riverrunoffvariations 51 M.V.Bolgov Identificationofregional stochastic modelsfromshorttime-series 67 M.1.Fortus and M.V Bolgov Amethod forsimulationofperiodic hydrological timeseries using wavelet transform75 G.Feng TheCaspian Sea asastochasticreservoir 91 AV.Frolov Geophysical timeseries andclimatic change: Asceptic'sview 109 V.Klernes Onthedevelopmentofthestochastic approach inhydrology 129 D.Ya.Ratkovich Stochastic models ofthelong-term riverrunoff fluctuations withapplicationin water constructionand management 139 A V.Rozhdestvensky vi 3. Riverandsedimentdynamics Statisticalmodelofriver-bedstream:parametersofturbulence,energycharacteristics147 VK.DebolskyandE.N.Dolgopolova 4. Waterresourcesystemmanagement Managementofwaterresourcessystems undernon-stationaryconditions 157 I.L.Khranovich andAL.Velikanov Interactiveriver-aquifersimulationandstochasticanalysesforpredictingand evaluatingtheecologicimpactsofalternativelandandwatermanagementpolicies 169 D.PLoucks Adecision-makingsupportsystemforselectingwaterprotectionandreservoir control measures 195 V.G.Priazhinskaya,L.K. Levit-GourevichandD.M.Yaroshevskii Control ofregimesofwaterresourcesystemswithstochasticindeterminacyofthe hydrometeorologicaldata 215 A.M.ReznikovskyandM.I.Rubinshtein 5. Riskassessment Riskmappingofgroundwatercontamination 227 W.K.Wong, I.Krasovskaia,L.GottschalkandA Bardossy Economicriskofflooding:acasestudyfortheGlommaRiver,Norway 241 L. Gottschalk, I. KrasovskaiaandN.R.Srelthun Preface This book contains a selection of papers from a NATO Advanced Research Workshop entitled "Stochasticmodels ofhydrological processes andtheirapplications toproblems ofenvironmental preservation" convened in Moscow over the period 23-27 November 1998.The Workshop wasunique inproviding thefirst opportunity for over adecade for countries of the Russian Federation to interact with other countries across the world to discuss hydrological science issues relevant to environmental management. The contrasting schools of thought within the Russian Federation and with other countries provedafascinating and valuableexperienceforthose fortunate enough toattend. The scientific content of the Workshop was motivated by a number ofconcerns. Water is a key natural resource whose modelling and management is made complex by its inherent spatial unevenness and time variability. Traditional methods for investigating hydrological processes innature employ stochastic modelling andforecasting. However these are not well developed with regard to (i) representing the characteristics of hydrological regimes, and (ii) investigating the influence of water factors on processes which arise in biological systems and those involving hydrochemical, geophysical and otherprocesses. Advances in modelling and risk assessment are required to develop technical standards for permissible loadings on our environment. In particular, existing methods are deficient for forecasting the regime of ecological systems involving water resources affected significantly by man-made impacts. With environmental preservation of growing concern inmanycountries,the NATOAdvanced Research Workshop provided a timely opportunity to address the modelling, forecasting and risk assessment issues thatthismanagementproblem presents fromamulti-disciplinaryviewpoint. The workshop provoked discussion on ideas for new stochastic modelling approaches against a requirement for sustainable development in an environment changing under man's influence.Aparticularlyimportantchallenge wasseen to be the need toconsider the effects of a changing climate and ecological impacts when developing modelling andriskassessmentprocedures insupport ofriver basin management. The book "Hydrological models for environmental management" contains 18papers chosen to cover a good cross-section of the science issues addressed by the NATO Advanced Research Workshop. Mikhail V.Bolgov, Water Problems Institute, Moscow, Russia LarsGottschalk, DepartmentofGeophysics, University ofOslo, Norway Irina Krasovskaia, IGC,Sweden Robert1.Moore, Centre forEcology & Hydrology, Wallingford, UK vii Acknowledgements ThisNATO Advanced Research Workshop wasdirected byMikhail 1.Bolgov, Water Problems Institute, Moscow, Russia andRobert J.Moore, CEH, Wallingford, UKwith the scientific supportof Lars Gottschalk, Department of Geophysics, University of Oslo, Norway as the thirdmember of theOrganising Committee. Irina Krasovskaia, IGC, Sweden provided scientific andeditorial supportrelating tomanuscripts fromthe Russian Federation. The Workshop washosted by the WaterProblems Institute and convenedatahotel oftheRussian AcademyofSciences. TheNATO Science Committee isthanked fortheirsupport oftheWorkshop. NATO gave grant support with employers of the members of the Organising Committee bringing additional resources.Participants intheWorkshop, 34fromeightcountries of theformer SovietUnion and 10from ninecountries across theworld, areparticularly thankedfortheircontributiontoitssuccess. IX ListofParticipants Directors Robert1.Moore CentreforEcologyandHydrology Wallingford Oxon,OX108BB UK MikhailV.Bolgov WaterProblemsInstitute 117971,GubkinSt.,3,Moscow Russia KeySpeakers VitKlemes 3460FultonRd,Victoria Canada LarsGottschalk DepartmentofGeophysics UniversityofOslo P.O.Box 1022Blindem N-0315 Oslo Norway Daniel Loucks HollisterHall CornellUniversity Ithaca, NY14853 USA Ladislav Kashparek T.G.M.WaterResearch Institute Podbabska30,160 62Prague6 CzechRepublic Atil Bulu IstanbulTechnicalUniversity CivilEngineeringFaculty HydraulicsDivision 80626Ayazaga,Istanbul Turkey IrinaKrasovskaia IGC Lergravsvagen33 S-26352Hoganas Sweden DaniilRatkovich WaterProblemsInstitute 117971,GubkinSt.,3,Moscow Russia Xl xii JosefKhranovich WaterProblemsInstitute 117971,GubkinSt.,3,Moscow Russia Anatoli Rozhdestvensky StateHydrologicalInstitute(GGI) 199053,St.Petersburg Vasilievskiostrov,2-ndlineSt.,23 Russia Yurii Vinogradov StateHydrologicalInstitute(GGI) 199053,St.Petersburg Vasilievskiostrov,2-ndlineSt.,23 Russia VladimirDebolskii WaterProblemsInstitute 117971,GubkinSt.3,Moscow Russia SergeyKondratyev InstituteofLimnology RussianAcademyofSciences 196199,St.Petersburg SevostyanovaSt.,9 Russia Evgenii Venezianov WaterProblemsInstitute 117971,GubkinSt.3,Moscow Russia Vladilen Pisarenko International InstituteofEarthquake TheoryandPrediction Russian AcademyofSciences 113556,WarshavskoeSh.,79,korp.2 Moscow,Russia Nikolai Alekseevskii MoscowStateUniversity GeographyDepartment 119899,Vorob'evyGory Moscow, Russia Val. Pryazhinskaya WaterProblemsInstitute 117971,GubkinSt.3,Moscow Russia
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