FM-Shoemaker.qxd 11/11/03 5:08 PM Page i FM-Shoemaker.qxd 11/11/03 5:08 PM Page ii Dedicated to... F. Scott Sherman Elaine F. Tankard L. Richard Scroggins FM-Shoemaker.qxd 11/11/03 5:08 PM Page iii FM-Shoemaker.qxd 11/11/03 5:08 PM Page iv Copyright © 2004 by Pamela J. Shoemaker, James William Tankard, Jr., and Dominic L. Lasorsa. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. For information: Sage Publications, Inc. 2455 Teller Road Thousand Oaks, California 91320 E-mail: [email protected] Sage Publications Ltd. 6 Bonhill Street London EC2A4PU United Kingdom Sage Publications India Pvt. Ltd. B-42, Panchsheel Enclave Post Box 4109 New Delhi 110 017 India Printed in the United States of America Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Shoemaker, Pamela J. How to build social science theories / by Pamela J. Shoemaker, James William Tankard, Jr., Dominic L. Lasorsa ; foreword by Jerald Hage. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-7619-2666-6 — ISBN 0-7619-2667-4 (paper)) 1. Sociology-Methodology. 2. Social sciences-Methodology. I. Tankard, James W. II. Lasorsa, Dominic L. III. Title. HM585.S52 2004 300´.1—dc22 2003016653 Printed on acid-free paper. 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Acquiring Editor: Margaret H. Seawell Editorial Assistant: Alicia Carter Production Editor: Claudia A. Hoffman Copy Editor: Elisabeth Magnus Typesetter: C&M Digitals (P) Ltd. Indexer: Sylvia Coates FM-Shoemaker.qxd 11/11/03 5:08 PM Page v Contents Preface ix Foreword xiii Jerald Hage 1. Introduction: The Nature of Science 1 Science 1 Social Science 3 Theory 5 Scientific Jargon 7 Doing Science 9 Outline of the Book 11 2. Theoretical Concepts: The Building Blocks of Theory 15 Constructs, Concepts, and Variables 15 Variables Versus Nonvariables 16 Variables Acting as Nonvariables 18 Independent Versus Dependent Variables 18 Categorical Versus Continuous Variables 20 Converting Categorical Variables Into Continuous Variables 22 Identifying Dimensions of a Construct 25 Defining Concepts 26 Theoretical Definitions 26 Operational Definitions 29 Building Scales and Indexes 33 3. Theoretical Statements Relating Two Variables 37 Identifying Assumptions 38 Forms of Hypotheses 40 Causal Direction 44 How Research Questions and Hypotheses Differ 46 FM-Shoemaker.qxd 11/11/03 5:08 PM Page vi 4. Theoretical and Operational Linkages 51 Theoretical Linkages 52 Operational Linkages 57 Operational Linkages as Visual Representations 57 Operational Linkages as Statistics 62 The Whole Story 64 5. Theoretical Statements Relating Three Variables 67 Roles of Three-Variable Relationships in Theory 70 Five Types of Outcomes 72 Proper Form for Hypothesis 81 Some Methodological Considerations 83 Conclusion 84 6. Theoretical Statements Relating Four or More Variables 85 Formulating Theoretical Statements for Complex Systems 86 Visualizing Four-Variable Relationships 89 Extending the Three-Variable Strategy to Complex Systems 95 Ordering the Variables in Time 98 Analyzing Paths Among Multiple Variables 100 Specifying Nonlinear Relationships and Nonadditive Effects 103 Caveats and Conclusions 105 7. Theoretical Models 107 What a Model Is 107 Models Versus Theories 110 Uses of Models 114 Criticisms of Models 119 Types of Models 122 Representing Theories in Model Form 132 Deriving Theoretical Statements From Models 134 Building on Existing Models 137 Developments in Model Building 138 8. Creativity and Theory Building 145 Beginning Points for Theory 146 Creativity in Theory Building 147 Some Suitable Points for Creative Thinking 149 Principles and Techniques of Creative Thinking 149 FM-Shoemaker.qxd 11/11/03 5:08 PM Page vii Attribute Listing 150 The Technique of Forced Relationships 151 Morphological Analysis 151 Brainstorming 152 Generating Lists of Ideas 153 Lateral Thinking 153 Random Input 154 Setting up Provocations 154 The Creative Hit List 155 Visualization 155 Writing Techniques 156 Letting the Unconscious Do Some of the Work 156 Metaphor and Analogy in Theory Building 157 Examples from Mass Communication Theory 158 Advantages of Metaphor and Analogy 162 Cautions in Using Metaphor and Analogy 164 Finding Metaphors and Analogies 165 Switching to the Critical Mode 165 Conclusion 166 9. Using and Evaluating Theory 167 Atheoretical Research 168 The Usefulness of Theory 169 Summarizing Knowledge 169 Practical Applications 169 Guiding Research 169 Ten Steps of Building a Theory 170 Evaluating Theories 171 Testability 171 Falsifiability 172 Parsimony 172 Explanatory Power 172 Predictive Power 173 Scope 173 Cumulative Nature of Science 173 Degree of Formal Development 174 Heuristic Value 176 Aesthetics 176 Sample Evaluation of a Theory 176 Theory Building and Platt’s “Strong Inference” 178 FM-Shoemaker.qxd 11/11/03 5:08 PM Page viii Constraints on Theory Building 179 Final Suggestions 180 Conclusion 181 Appendix A. Guidelines for Preparing Tables and Figures 183 Appendix B. Acceptable Levels of Measurement for Various Statistics 201 References 203 Index 211 About the Authors 221 FM-Shoemaker.qxd 11/11/03 5:08 PM Page ix Preface O ne of us (Tankard) was teaching at the University of Wisconsin in 1970-71 when two graduate students, Robert Krull and James Watt, mentioned an exciting course they were taking from a sociology professor named Jerald Hage. The course dealt with theory building in sociology, and the students said Hage had just written his own text for the course and distributed it to the class in mimeographed form. Tankard showed interest in seeing the document, and Krull and Watt obtained a copy for him. It was 220 mimeographed pages, and the figures were drawn by hand. The title of the manuscript was Techniques and Problems of Theory Construction. The manuscript was not always easy reading, with examples taken primarily from sociology, but it dealt with the important matter of theory building in a more system- atic and comprehensive way than anything else that was around. In 1972, the manuscript was published by John Wiley & Sons under the title Techniques and Problems of Theory Construction in Sociology. Tankard, who was teaching theory and research methods at the University of Texas, began assigning chapters in graduate seminars. Despite a few student complaints about the difficulty of the material, he continued to assign chapters from the Hage book for years because the ideas were so important and useful. Another of us (Shoemaker) remembers going through graduate classes at the University of Wisconsin in which theory building and testing were discussed and expecting to see an example of a theory with all its various parts. She discovered that there weren’t any—social science theories tend to be spread in a nonsystematic way across many articles and books. This was the beginning of her interest in theory building. Shoemaker came to the University of Texas to teach in 1982 and began assigning chapters from the Hage book, which she knew about from her graduate courses at Wisconsin. The Hage “system” played a major role in the development of her dissertation at ix