Hard Target: Sanctions, Inducements, and the Case of North Korea PDF
Preview Hard Target: Sanctions, Inducements, and the Case of North Korea
Hard Target S N i Studies in Asian Security series editors Amitav Acharya, Chief Editor David Leheny, Chief Editor American University Princeton University Alastair Iain Johnston Randall Schweller Harvard University The Ohio State University international board Rajesh M. Basrur Brian L. Job Nanyang Technological University University of British Columbia Barry Buzan Miles Kahler London School of Economics University of California, San Diego Victor D. Cha Peter J. Katzenstein Georgetown University Cornell University Thomas J. Christensen KhongYuen Foong Princeton University Oxford University Stephen P. Cohen Byung-Kook Kim The Brookings Institution Korea University Chu Yun-han Michael Mastanduno Academia Sinica Dartmouth College Rosemary Foot Mike Mochizuki University of Oxford The George Washington University Aaron L. Friedberg Katherine H. S. Moon Princeton University Wellesley College Sumit Ganguly Qin Yaqing Indiana University, Bloomington China Foreign Affairs University Avery Goldstein Christian Reus-Smit University of Pennsylvania Australian National University Michael J. Green Etel Solingen Georgetown University University of California, Irvine Stephan M. Haggard Varun Sahni University of California, San Diego Jawaharlal Nehru University G. John Ikenberry Rizal Sukma Princeton University CSIS, Jakarta S Takashi Inoguchi Wu Xinbo N Chuo University Fudan University ii The Studies in Asian Security book series promotes analysis, understand- ing, and explanation of the dynamics of domestic, transnational, and inter- national security challenges in Asia. The peer-reviewed publications in the Series analyze contemporary security issues and problems to clarify debates in the scholarly community, provide new insights and perspectives, and identify new research and policy directions. Security is defined broadly to include the traditional political and military dimensions as well as nontraditional dimen- sions that affect the survival and well-being of political communities. Asia, too, is defined broadly to include Northeast, Southeast, South, and Central Asia. Designed to encourage original and rigorous scholarship, books in the Studies in Asian Security series seek to engage scholars, educators, and practi- tioners. Wide-ranging in scope and method, the Series is receptive to all para- digms, programs, and traditions, and to an extensive array of methodologies now employed in the social sciences. S N iii This page intentionally left blank Hard Target sanctions, inducements, and the case of north korea Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland stanford university press Stanford, California Stanford University Press Stanford, California © 2017 by the Board of Trustees of the Leland Stanford Junior University. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system without the prior written permission of Stanford University Press. Printed in the United States of America on acid-free, archival-quality paper Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Haggard, Stephan, author. | Noland, Marcus, author. Title: Hard target : sanctions, inducements, and the case of North Korea / Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland. Other titles: Studies in Asian security. Description: Stanford, California : Stanford University Press, 2017. | Series: Studies in Asian security | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifiers: lccn 2016031455 (print) | lccn 2016032208 (ebook) | isbn 9781503600362 (cloth : alk. paper) | isbn 9781503601994 (ebook) Subjects: lcsh: Economic sanctions—Korea (North) | Korea (North)—Foreign economic r elations. | Korea (North)—Foreign relations. | Nuclear disarmament—Korea (North) Classification: lcc hf1602.6 .h34 2017 (print) | lcc hf1602.6 (ebook) | ddc 327.1/17095193— dc23 lc record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016031455 Cover photo: A North Korean soldier looks at the south side through a pair of binoculars at the Panmunjom truce village. Reuters. Typeset by Newgen in 10.5/13.5 Bembo Contents List of Figures and Tables ix Preface and Acknowledgments xi Note on Romanization xv 1 Introduction: The Political Economy of Engagement 1 2 The Political Economy of North Korea: The Paradigmatic Hard Target 28 3 North Korea’s External Economic Relations, 1990–2016 59 4 Humanitarian Dilemmas: The Political Economy of Food 105 5 The Microeconomics of Engagement 138 6 Negotiating on Nuclear Weapons I: The Rise and Fall of the Six Party Talks, 2001–2008 170 7 Negotiating on Nuclear Weapons II: Permanent Crisis, 2009–2016 199 8 Conclusion: Whither North Korea? Whither Economic Statecraft? 226 Notes 253 References 281 Index 311 S N vii This page intentionally left blank Figures and Tables figures 2.1 Total membership in core institutions 34 2.2 Politburo membership by career affiliation, 1994–2013 (percentage) 39 2.3 Price of rice and US dollar exchange rate in Pyongyang markets, January 2009–2015 52 3.1 North Korea’s observed commercial merchandise trade 62 3.2 Chinese luxury goods exports to North Korea, 2000–2014 66 3.3 Composition of North Korea’s exports, 2006, 2010, and 2014 68 3.4 North Korea’s commercial exports and world commodity price indices, 1995–2016 69 3.5 North Korea’s trade with USSR/Russia, 1985–2015 71 3.6 Share of DPRK total trade with Six Party Talks partners 73 3.7 Diplomatic relations of North and South Korea, 1948–2014 74 3.8 North Korea total trade with non–Six Party Talks countries, 1990–2015 75 3.9 South Korean and Chinese government support, 1998–2012 77 3.10 Benchmark world rice prices versus China export prices to North Korea, 2002–2014 79 3.11 Benchmark world crude oil prices versus China export prices to North Korea, 2002–2014 79 3.12 South Korea to North Korea total exports, 1990–2015 80 3.13 Arms and illicit exports as a share of commercial goods exports, 1990–2011 86 3.14 Foreign direct investment in North Korea (flows, US$ millions), S 1990–2014 90 N 3.15 Total current account credits and debits, 1990–2011 92 ix
The list of books you might like
