Handbook of Risk Theory: Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk PDF
Preview Handbook of Risk Theory: Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk
Handbook of Risk Theory Sabine Roeser, Rafaela Hillerbrand, Per Sandin, Martin Peterson (Eds.) Handbook of Risk Theory Epistemology, Decision Theory, Ethics, and Social Implications of Risk With85Figuresand62Tables Editors SabineRoeser(Editor-in-Chief) PhilosophyDepartment FacultyofTechnology,PolicyandManagement DelftUniversityofTechnology Delft TheNetherlands and PhilosophyDepartment UniversityofTwente Enschede TheNetherlands RafaelaHillerbrand HumanTechnologyCenter RWTHAachenUniversity Aachen Germany PerSandin DepartmentofPlantPhysiologyandForestGenetics SwedishUniversityofAgriculturalSciences Uppsala Sweden MartinPeterson SectionforPhilosophyandEthics EindhovenUniversityofTechnology Eindhoven TheNetherlands ISBN978-94-007-1432-8 e-ISBN 978-94-007-1433-5 PrintandelectronicbundleunderISBN978-94-007-1434-2 DOI10.1007/978-94-007-1433-5 SpringerDordrechtHeidelbergLondonNewYork LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2011941145 ©SpringerScienceþBusinessMediaB.V.2012 Nopartofthisworkmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans, electronic,mechanical,photocopying,microfilming,recordingorotherwise,withoutwritten permissionfrom thePublisher,withtheexceptionofanymaterialsuppliedspecificallyforthepurposeofbeingenteredand executedonacomputersystem,forexclusiveusebythepurchaserofthework. Printedonacid-freepaper SpringerispartofSpringerScienceþBusinessMedia(www.springer.com) Preface Risk has become one of the main topics in fields as diverse as engineering, medicine, and economics,anditisalsostudiedbysocialscientists,psychologists,andlegalscholars.Butthe topicofriskalsoleadstomorefundamentalquestionssuchas:Whatisrisk?Whatcandecision theorycontribute totheanalysis ofrisk?Whatdoesthehumanperceptionofriskmean for society?Howshouldwejudgewhetherariskismorallyacceptableornot?Overthelastcouple ofdecades,questionslikethesehaveattractedinterestfromphilosophersandotherscholars intorisktheory. Thishandbook providesanoverview intokey topicsinamajornewfieldofresearch.It addresses a wide range of topics, from decision theory, risk perception, to ethics and social implicationsofrisk,anditalsoaddressesspecificcasestudies.Itaimstopromotecommuni- cationandinformationamongallthosewhoareinterestedintheoreticalissuesconcerningrisk anduncertainty. Thishandbookbringstogetherleading philosophersandscholarsfrom otherdisciplines whoworkonrisktheory.Thecontributionsareaccessiblywrittenandhighlyrelevanttoissues thatarestudiedbyriskscholars.WehopethattheHandbookofRiskTheorywillbeahelpful startingpointforallriskscholarswhoareinterestedinbroadeninganddeepeningtheircurrent perspectives. Theeditors: SabineRoeser(Editor-in-Chief),RafaelaHillerbrand,PerSandin,andMartinPeterson Acknowledgments SabineRoeser’sworkfortheHandbookofRiskTheoryhasbeenconductedatthephilosophy departments of TU Delft and Twente University and was sponsored by the Netherlands OrganizationforScientificResearch(NWO),withVIDI-grantnumber276-20-012. Rafaela Hillerbrand’s work on this volume was supported by the excellence initiative of theGermanfederalandstategovernmentsandconductedattheHumanTechnologyCentre (HumTec)andtheInstituteofPhilosophy,RWTHAachenUniversity.Thankstoallmembers of the research group eet - ethics for energy technology for insights into risks fromvarious disciplines.SpecialthankstoAndreasPfennig,NickShackel,andPeterTaylorfornumerous fruitfuldiscussionsonthetopic. PerSandin’sworkforthishandbookwasdoneintheDepartmentofPlantPhysiologyand ForestGenetics,SwedishUniversityofAgriculturalSciences,UppsalaandintheDepartmentof PhilosophyandHistoryofTechnology,RoyalInstituteofTechnology,Stockholm. MartinPetersonhasconductedhisworkforthehandbookatthephilosophydepartmentof TUEindhoven.SabineRoeserandMartinPetersonaremembersofthe3TU.CentreforEthics andTechnology,acenterofexcellenceofthefederationofthethreetechnicaluniversitiesinthe Netherlands(Delft,Eindhoven,andTwente). Weareverygratefultothecontributorsofthishandbook.Inaddition,wewouldliketo thankKatieSteele,LindaSoneryd,andMisseWester,eachofwhomprovidedexpertreviewsfor achapter.WewouldliketothankthestaffatSpringerfortheexcellentcollaboration,specially TiesNijssen,JuttaJaeger-Hamers,andChristineHausmann. Table of Contents Preface . ...... ..... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ... v Acknowledgments ... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...vii Editors . ...... ..... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... .. xiii ListofContributors... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...xv Volume 1 1 IntroductiontoRiskTheory..... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ... 1 SabineRoeser.RafaelaHillerbrand.PerSandin.MartinPeterson Part 1 General Issues in Risk Theory 2 APanoramaofthePhilosophyofRisk... ...... ...... ...... ...... .. 27 SvenOveHansson 3 TheConceptsofRiskandSafety . ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... .. 55 NiklasMo¨ller 4 LevelsofUncertainty ... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... ...... .. 87 HaukeRiesch Part 2 Specific Risks 5 TheEconomicsofRisk:A(Partial)Survey ...... ...... ...... ...... ..113 LouisEeckhoudt.HenriLouberge´ 6 InterpretationofForensicEvidence..... ...... ...... ...... ...... ..135 ReinoudD.Stoel.MarjanSjerps 7 RisksandScientificResponsibilitiesinNanotechnology . ...... ...... ..159 JohnWeckert 8 RiskandRisk-BenefitEvaluationsinBiomedicalResearch...... ...... ..179 AnnetteRid 9 UnderstandingandGoverningPublicHealthRisksbyModeling . ...... ..213 ErikaMansnerus x TableofContents 10 ManagementoftheRisksofTransport ... ..... ...... ...... ...... ..239 JohnAdams 11 RiskandSpatialPlanning . ...... ...... ..... ...... ...... ...... ..265 ClaudiaBasta 12 IntergenerationalRisksofNuclearEnergy. ..... ...... ...... ...... ..295 BehnamTaebi 13 ClimateChangeasRisk? .. ...... ...... ..... ...... ...... ...... ..319 RafaelaHillerbrand 14 EarthquakesandVolcanoes:RiskfromGeophysicalHazards.... ...... ..341 AmyDonovan Part 3 Decision Theory and Risk 15 ARationalApproachtoRisk?BayesianDecisionTheory . ...... ...... ..375 ClausBeisbart 16 APhilosophicalAssessmentofDecisionTheory . ...... ...... ...... ..405 KarstenKlintJensen 17 TheMismeasureofRisk... ...... ...... ..... ...... ...... ...... ..441 PeterR.Taylor 18 UnreliableProbabilities,Paradoxes,andEpistemicRisks ...... ...... ..477 Nils-EricSahlin 19 ParadoxesofRationalChoiceTheory .... ..... ...... ...... ...... ..499 TillGru¨ne-Yanoff 20 Multi-AttributeApproachestoRisk ...... ..... ...... ...... ...... ..517 PaulWeirich 21 Real-LifeDecisionsandDecisionTheory .. ..... ...... ...... ...... ..545 JohnR.Welch 22 SocialInfluencesonRiskAttitudes:ApplicationsinEconomics .. ...... ..575 StefanT.Trautmann.FerdinandM.Vieider
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