Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation PDF
Preview Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation
Wei-Yin Chen Toshio Suzuki Maximilian Lackner Editors Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Second Edition Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation (cid:129) Wei-Yin Chen Toshio Suzuki Maximilian Lackner Editors Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Second Edition With1108Figuresand352Tables Editors Wei-YinChen ToshioSuzuki DepartmentofChemicalEngineering NationalInstituteofAdvancedIndustrial UniversityofMississippi ScienceandTechnology(AIST) Oxford,MS,USA Nagoya,Japan MaximilianLackner InstituteofAdvancedEngineering Technologies UniversityofAppliedSciencesFH TechnikumWien Vienna,Austria ISBN978-3-319-14408-5 ISBN978-3-319-14409-2(eBook) ISBN978-3-319-14410-8(printandelectronicbundle) DOI10.1007/978-3-319-14409-2 LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2016946080 1stedition:#SpringerScience+BusinessMedia,LLC2012 #SpringerInternationalPublishingSwitzerland2017 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpartofthe materialisconcerned,specificallytherightsoftranslation,reprinting,reuseofillustrations,recitation, broadcasting,reproductiononmicrofilmsorinanyotherphysicalway,andtransmissionorinformation storageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilarmethodology nowknownorhereafterdeveloped. Theuseofgeneraldescriptivenames,registerednames,trademarks,servicemarks,etc.inthispublication doesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfromtherelevant protectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. Thepublisher,theauthorsandtheeditorsaresafetoassumethattheadviceandinformationinthisbook arebelievedtobetrueandaccurateatthedateofpublication.Neitherthepublishernortheauthorsorthe editorsgiveawarranty,expressorimplied,withrespecttothematerialcontainedhereinorforanyerrors oromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade. Printedonacid-freepaper ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbySpringerNature TheregisteredcompanyisSpringerInternationalPublishingAG Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland Foreword Scientific evidence is mounting that human activities have begun to change global climate. As a consequence, attention is increasingly turning in the public, private, and nonprofit sectors to the options available for dealing with that change. As we graduallybegintorealize,actuallyonlythreeoptionsareavailabletous:mitigation, adaptation,andsuffering.Mitigatingclimatechangemeanscuttingandsequestering emissions of greenhouse gases to prevent further increases in their atmospheric concentrations and perhaps even reducing concentrations to levels deemed less unsafethantheonestowhichtheyhavebeendrivensincethestartoftheindustrial revolution. Adaptation means finding ways that can help reduce the impacts of climate change on society, the various sectors of its economy, and the places in which we live – be those small rural villages or the cities and towns that by now housethemajorityofthehumanpopulation,thataccountforthebulkofinfrastruc- ture investments, and that contribute most to energy consumption and carbon emissions.Totheextentthatmitigationandadaptationeffortsaretootimid,suffer- ingwillinevitablyresult. What are safe concentrations of greenhouse gases is a topic of vigorous debate becausewedonotyetfullyunderstandthecoupledearthsystemandhumansystem dynamicsthatwillplaythemselvesoutinaworldofunprecedentedgreenhousegas concentrations.Howhighistoohighwillbeknownwellafterthepointofnoreturn has been reached, that is when developments in the global biogeochemical system arekickedofftomoveinadirectionandratethatcannotbeundone.Icesheetsmay meltandfreethemethaneandcarbondioxidelonglockedupinthesoilsunderneath, thusfurtheracceleratingclimatechange.Majoroceancurrents,whichmovewaters and nutrients to support the biological activity in the seas, may abruptly change direction or entirely cease. The established precipitation and temperature patterns, whicharesocentraltoagriculture,maybealteredinwaysthatfurtherchallengeour abilities to feed a growing human population. And so, the extent to which we embracemitigation,inpart,reflectsouraversion–ordesire–totakerisksinmatters pertainingnotjusttothestabilityofglobalclimateconditionsbuttheglobalhuman conditionandthatofotherspeciesmorebroadly. It is against this backdrop that this volume illuminates humanity’s mitigation options.Fromitscoverageitisquiteobviousthatthereisnomagicknifewithwhich tocutemissions,becausethesourcesofemissionsarevariedandintricatelywoven v vi Foreword into the very fabric of our society and economy. Movement from oil, coal, and natural gas, for example, to biological feedstocks for the production of fuels and chemicalsisanessentialstrategytodecarbonizeoureconomies,buttheeffectofthis strategy hinges on the extent to which production of biomass can decouple itself from fossil-based generation of fertilizers and pesticides, minimize land conversa- tion, and prevent the associated release of carbon from soils and impacts on biodiversity. Other, at least equally daunting, challenges surround the conversion ofsyngastofuel;thedeploymentofgeothermal, solar,andfusiontechnology;and the various means to sequester greenhouse gases. Policy and investment decision makers who wish to navigate and shape the resultant dynamics are further chal- lengedintheirabilitiestounderstandandprojectresourceandemissionstrendsinto thefuturebecause oftherapid changesintechnologies andmarkets,aswellasthe emergenceofnew,majorplayersinthegame,suchashashappenedinrecentyears withtheproliferationofshaleoilandshalegasdevelopments. Even if the production of new sources of energy and materials can occur with loweremissions,theendusetechnologiesandinfrastructuresneedtobeinplaceto take full advantage of these improvements. This will require changes in our built environment – from houses to transportation networks to energy storage to power grids and beyond. These changes, in turn, will, at least for the foreseeable future, requirecontinueduseofexistinginfrastructuresthathavedevelopedaroundtheuse ofconventionalfuelsandlandusepractices. Decarbonizationattheprocesslevel,evenwhencombinedwiththemostaggres- siveefficiencyimprovementsintheendusesofmaterialsandenergy,howeveronly translatestonetreductionsinemissionsif“otherinfluences”donotoverwhelmthe rates at which these improvements are realized. Among these other influences are economic growth that comes from generating ever larger production of output, population growth that leads to ever more demand for goods and services, and climatechangeitselfthatistriggeringaneedforsurplusproductiontobuiltupour safetynets–frompersonalinsurancetolarge-scalefloodcontrolsystems–thatcan helpusweatheradverseclimateconditions. Inthefinalanalysis,itistheinterplayoftechnologychange,behavioralchange, institutionalchange,andenvironmentalchangethatmustbemanagedformitigation tobecomeeffective.Howwellthatinterplayisorchestratedwillinlargepartdepend on our ability to provide the right incentives for climate mitigation – be it through international agreements or through unilateral action, through market-based approaches, direct government intervention, or a mix of them all. Our success will beindicativenotjustofthetechnologicalprowessofourage,butalsoofthevalues andinstitutionsthatguideouractions. Despite all efforts to stabilize and perhaps even reduce, in the long run, atmo- sphericgreenhousegasconcentrations,humanshavealreadycommittedthemselves todecadesoftemperaturechangesandcenturiesofsealevelrise.And,toworsenthe outlook, rising global temperatures and sea levels will be accompanied by many other changes in our biophysical and socioeconomic environment. Since the heat budgetoftheglobewillbedisturbed,thefrequencyandseverityofextremeweather eventswilllikelyincrease.Disruptionsinbiophysicalconditionswilltrigger,andbe Foreword vii triggered by, changes in ecosystems – including changes in the productivity of managed forests and croplands, as well as changes in the distribution of pests and diseases.Theassociatedtighteningofresourceconstraintswillunderminetheliveli- hoodsofpeople,displacepopulations,andinflictpainanddeath. There are unlikely to be long-term winners from climate change. None of the placesalreadysufferingfromshortagesinwaterandfood,forexample,orflooding andcrumblinginfrastructureswill,inthelongrun,bebetteroffbecauseofclimate change.Eveniftheydofeellike“winners”temporarily–perhapsbecausethelength of growing seasons increases with rising temperatures or a melting of sea ice improves shipping and boosts their economy – those benefits are fleeting. Climate will not stop changing once optimal conditions are reached, and benefits in one sectormayalreadybeoverwhelmedbycostsimposedonotherpartsoftheeconomy andsociety.Clearly,someformofadaptationwillneedtotakeplace. Ideally,adaptationstrategiesareimplementednotjustasclimatechangeunfolds, but in anticipation of any further climate change so that people, economic sectors, cities and their infrastructures, as well as natural systems such as wetlands and forests,arebetterpreparedfor,andperhapsevenprotectedfrom,furtherdisruptions. But even if there were no further climate change, there already is considerable variability in the weather conditions with which people, economic sectors, cities, and natural systems must cope. Maintaining vital wetlands well before flooding events will help provide natural buffers for coastal communities. Creating redun- danciesinlifelineinfrastructures,suchasthedifferentwaysofpoweringbusinesses andhomesfromcentralizedpowerplantsandsmall-scalegenerators,willallowfor switching across electricity sources during extreme weather events, for example. Andpromotingmoreefficientenergyuseinthefirstplacewillreducetherelianceon some of that energy. To the extent that adaptation helps reduce already existing inefficiencies, it can make good social, economic, and environmental sense irrespectiveofthedetailswithwhichfutureclimateconditionsmanifestthemselves. The conclusion one may draw that “less mitigation today can be balanced by more adaptation in the future,” however, is misleading. It suggests that the two strategiesare,atsomeabstractlevel,substitutable.Inreality,though,lessmitigation todaymeansnotjustaneedformoreadaptationinthefuture.Rather,lessmitigation today means more adaptation over more of our future, because even reduced emissions continue to add to atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and becausethedamagesthatresultwillbecumulativeinnature–heatwaves,droughts, and flooding events, for example, will continuously undermine our wealth and welfare and require ever larger diversion of resources to address the causes and effects of climate change. Understanding the role of mitigation and choosing the proper mitigation strategies is, therefore, an essential forebear to anything else we may be doing about climate change. Recognizing the urgency for preparedness, given the extent to which humanity has already committed itself to a changing climate,iscentraltomotivatinginvestmentinnewtechnologies,changesinbehav- iors,anddeploymentofinfrastructuresthatcanbetterwithstandthevagariesofthe climate. viii Foreword A worldview that is consistent with this understanding sees mitigation and adaptation as complements, offers them as strategies to address persistent and nascent inefficiencies, and treats them as a package that substitutes for the only other option available, namely suffering. It is in this sense that this Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation provides valuable insights into the preconditionsforaprosperousfuture. SchoolofPublicPolicyandUrbanAffairs MatthiasRuth NortheasternUniversity DirectorandProfessor Boston,MA,USA Contents Volume 1 PartI ScientificEvidencesofClimateChangeand SocietalIssues ............................................ 1 IntroductiontoClimateChangeMitigation ...................... 3 MaximilianLackner,Wei-YinChen,andToshioSuzuki LossandDamageAssociatedwithClimateChangeImpacts ........ 17 LintaM.MathewandSoniaAkter PaleoclimateChangesandSignificanceofPresentGlobal Warming ................................................. 47 AsadullahKazi LifeCycleAssessmentofGreenhouseGasEmissions .............. 61 L.Reijnders SomeEconomicsofInternationalClimatePolicy ................. 93 KarenPittel,DirkR€ubbelke,MartinAltemeyer-Bartscher,and SebastianOtte EthicsandEnvironmentalPolicy .............................. 127 DavidJ.RutherfordandEricThomasWeber MassMediaRolesinClimateChangeMitigation ................. 167 KristenAlleySwain EconomicsforaSustainablePlanet ............................ 221 ArifS.Malik EmissionsTrading ......................................... 257 RogerRaufer,PaulaCoussy,CarlaFreeman,andSudhaIyer ix x Contents CarbonMarkets:LinkingtheInternationalEmissionTradingUnder theUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange (UNFCCC)andtheEuropeanUnionEmissionTradingScheme (EUETS) ................................................ 313 ItziarMartínezdeAlegría,GonzaloMolina,andBeléndelRío EuropeanUnion(EU)StrategytoFacetheClimateChange ChallengeintheFrameworkoftheInternationalCommitments ..... 341 ItziarMartínezdeAlegría,María-AzucenaVicente-Molina,and CristianMoore ImplicationsofClimateChangeforthePetrochemicalIndustry: MitigationMeasuresandFeedstockTransitions .................. 383 SimonJ.BennettandHollyA.Page VentureCapitalInvestmentandTrendinCleanTechnologies ....... 427 JohnC.P.Huang AnalysisoftheCo-benefitsofClimateChangeMitigation .......... 477 DouglasCrawford-Brown TheRoleofAviationinClimateChangeMitigation ............... 489 KatsuyaHihara PartII ImpactofClimateChangeandAdaptation ............. 525 CarbonLiability ........................................... 527 YoshihiroFujii ClimateChangeandCarbonSequestrationinForestEcosystems .... 555 DafengHui,QiDeng,HanqinTian,andYiqiLuo ImpactofClimateChangeonBiodiversity ...................... 595 DavidH.Reed Sea-LevelRiseandHazardousStorms:ImpactAssessmentonCoasts andEstuaries ............................................. 621 YanDing ProjectedImpactsofClimaticChangesonCiscoOxythermalHabitat inMinnesotaLakesandManagementStrategies .................. 657 XingFang,HeinzG.Stefan,LipingJiang,PeterC.Jacobson,and DonaldL.Pereira ImpactofClimateChangeonCropProduction .................. 723 GamalElAfandi
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