Guesstimation: Solving the World's Problems on the Back of a Cocktail Napkin

320 Pages·2008·15.71 MB·English

by  Lawrence Weinstein

January19,2008 Time: 11:26am prelims.tex
guesssstimation
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i
January19,2008 Time: 11:26am prelims.tex
Lawrence Weinstein and John A. Adam
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ii
January19,2008 Time: 11:26am prelims.tex
guesssstimation
. .
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Solvingthe World’sProblems
ontheBackofaCocktailNapkin
PrincetonUniversityPress PrincetonandOxford
iii
January19,2008 Time: 11:26am prelims.tex
Copyright(cid:1)c 2008byLawrenceWeinsteinandJohnA.Adam
Requestsforpermissiontoreproducematerialfromthisworkshouldbesent
toPermissions,PrincetonUniversityPress
PublishedbyPrincetonUniversityPress,41WilliamStreet,Princeton,New
Jersey08540
IntheUnitedKingdom:PrincetonUniversityPress,3MarketPlace,Wood-
stock,OxfordshireOX201SY
AllRightsReserved
LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Weinstein,Lawrence,1960-
Guesstimation:solvingtheworld’sproblemsonthebackofacocktail
napkin/LawrenceWeinsteinandJohnA.Adam.
p.cm.
Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.
ISBN978-0-691-12949-5(clothbound : alk. paper)1. Estimation theory–
Miscellanea.2.Problemsolving–Miscellanea.I.Adam,JohnA.II.Title.
QA276.8.W452008
519.5(cid:1)44–dc22 2007033928
BritishLibraryCataloging-in-PublicationDataisavailable
ThisbookhasbeencomposedinMinionwithScalaSansdisplay
Printedonacid-freepaper.∞
press.princeton.edu
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
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January19,2008 Time: 11:26am prelims.tex
Tomywife,Carol,andmychildren,LeeandRachel,
whounderstandwhenIgetthatvacantlook
inmyeyesandstartmumblingexponents. [LW]
Tofourwonderfulandcherishednonmathematicians:
mywife,Susan,andmychildren,Rachel,Matthew,and
Lindsay,andlast,butnotleast(thoughheisstillvery
small),tomygrandson,JohnMark—mayyoucometo
lovenumbersatleastasmuchasIdo! [JAA]
v
January19,2008 Time: 11:26am prelims.tex
vi
January19,2008 Time: 11:26am prelims.tex
Contents
Acknowledgments xi
Preface xiii
1 HowtoSolveProblems 1
2 DealingwithLargeNumbers 11
2.1 ScientificNotation 11
2.2 Accuracy 14
2.3 ANoteonUnits 16
2.4 UnitConversion 17
3 GeneralQuestions 19
3.1 Onebigfamily 21
3.2 Fore! 25
3.3 Thisisafinepickleyou’vegotusinto,Patty 29
3.4 Throwinginthetowel 31
3.5 Heybuddy,canyoufilladome? 35
3.6 Amoleofcats 39
3.7 MassiveMongaMillions 41
3.8 Tonsoftrash 43
3.9 Mt.Trashmore 47
3.10 Jugglingpeople 51
3.11 Shelvingtheproblem 53
4 AnimalsandPeople 55
4.1 Morenumerousthanthestarsinthesky 57
4.2 Laboringinvein 61
4.3 Unzippingyourskin 65
4.4 Hairtoday,gonetomorrow 69
4.5 Hotdawg! 73
4.6 Playingthefield 75
4.7 Ewww...gross! 77
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4.8 Goingpotty 79
4.9 Let’sgetonethingstraight! 83
5 Transportation 87
5.1 DrivingpastSaturn 89
5.2 Drowningingasoline 91
5.3 Slowlyonthehighway 95
5.4 Rickshawsandautomobiles 99
5.5 Horseexhaust 103
5.6 Tiretracks 107
5.7 Workingforthecar 109
6 EnergyandWork 113
6.1 Energyofheight 114
6.1.1 Mountainclimbing 115
6.1.2 FlatteningtheAlps 119
6.1.3 Raisingabuilding 123
6.2 Energyofmotion 126
6.2.1 Atyourservice 127
6.2.2 Kinetictrucking 129
6.2.3 Racingcontinents 131
6.2.4 “Toboldlygo...” 135
6.3 Work 138
6.3.1 Crash! 139
6.3.2 Spider-Manandthesubwaycar 143
7 HydrocarbonsandCarbohydrates 145
7.1 Chemicalenergy 145
7.1.1 Energyingasoline 147
7.1.2 Batteryenergy 151
7.1.3 Batteryenergydensity 155
7.1.4 Batteriesvs.gastanks 159
7.2 Foodisenergy 162
7.2.1 Eathere,getgas 163
7.2.2 Farmlandforethanol 167
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February1,2008 Time: 12:50pm prelims.tex
7.3 Power! 170
7.3.1 Hothumans 171
7.3.2 Fill’erupwithgasoline 173
7.3.3 Fill’erupwithelectricity 175
8 TheEarth,theMoon,andLotsofGerbils 179
8.1 “Andyetitmoves”(epursimuove) 181
8.2 Duck! 185
8.3 Super-sizedSun 189
8.4 Sunpower 193
8.5 Gerbils1,Sun0 197
8.6 ChemicalSun 201
8.7 Nearbysupernova 205
8.8 Meltingicecaps 209
9 EnergyandtheEnvironment 213
9.1 Powertothepeople 215
9.2 Continentalpower 219
9.3 Solarenergy 223
9.4 Landforsolarenergy 225
9.5 Tiltingatwindmills 229
9.6 Thepowerofcoal 233
9.7 Thepowerofnuclei 237
9.8 Hardsurfaces 239
10 TheAtmosphere 243
10.1 Intothinair 245
10.2 Ancientair 247
10.3 Suckitup 251
10.4 CO fromcoal 255
2
10.5 Ahealthyglow 259
10.6 CO fromcars 261
2
10.7 Turninggasintotrees 265
10.8 Turningtreesintogas 269
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