Global Warming: Understanding the Forecast

214 Pages·2011·3.6 MB·English

by  David Archer

LibraryPirate

Global Warming
Understanding the Forecast
Second Edition
David Archer
[email protected]
University of Chicago
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LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData
Archer,David,1960–
Globalwarming:understandingtheforecast/DavidArcher.–2nded.
p.cm.
Includesindex.
ISBN978-0-470-94341-0 (pbk.)
1. Globalwarming.2. Globaltemperaturechanges.3. Greenhouseeffect,Atmospheric.4. Global
warming–Politicalaspects.5. Globalwarming–Economicaspects. I.Title.
QC981.8.G56A732012
551.6–dc22
2011015260
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
10987654321
Contents
OnlineModels v
Preface vii
1 Humankind and Climate 1
Part I The Greenhouse Effect 7
2 Blackbody Radiation 9
3 The Layer Model 19
4 Greenhouse Gases 29
5 What Holds the Atmosphere Up? 43
6 Weather and Climate 57
7 Feedbacks 73
Part II The Carbon Cycle 87
8 Carbon on Earth 89
9 Fossil Fuels and Energy 103
10 The Perturbed Carbon Cycle 119
Part III The Forecast 133
11 The Smoking Gun 135
12 Potential Climate Impacts 153
13 Decisions, Decisions 173
Glossary 191
Index 197
iii

Online Models
A model of infrared radiation in the atmosphere:
http://understandingtheforecast.org/Projects/infrared_spectrum.html
A model of visible + infrared radiation in the atmosphere:
http://understandingtheforecast.org/Projects/full_spectrum.html
A model of the geological carbon cycle:
http://understandingtheforecast.org/Projects/geocarb.html
Integrated assessment model (ISAM) for future climate change:
http://understandingtheforecast.org/Projects/isam.html
A Hubbert’s Peak calculator:
http://understandingtheforecast.org/Projects/hubbert.html
The Kaya Identity model for the growth of the human footprint:
http://understandingtheforecast.org/Projects/kaya.html
Browsing the results of a coupled climate model:
http://understandingtheforecast.org/Projects/bala.html
The effect of Earth’s orbit on sunlight intensity:
http://understandingtheforecast.org/Projects/orbits.doc.html
v

Preface
GlobalWarming:UnderstandingtheForecast is basedon aclassforundergraduate non-science
majors at the University of Chicago, developed by Ray Pierrehumbert and myself. The class
serves as partial fulfillment of our general education or core science requirements. We teach
the class, and I have written the textbook, in a mechanistic way. We are aiming to achieve an
intuitive understanding of the “ropes and pulleys” of the natural world, a fundamental scientific
foundation that will serve the student for longer than would a straight presentation of the latest
predictions.
The text is aiming at a single problem, that of assessingthe risk of anthropogenic climate
change. The story ranges from science to economics to policy, through physics, chemistry,
biology, geology, computer science, and of course Earth sciences. We see the distant past and
the distant future. In my opinion, by looking at one problem from many angles, the student
gets a decent view of how a working scientist really thinks. This is as opposed to, say, taking
a survey tour of some scientific discipline.
The text is suitable for students of all backgrounds. We do make some use of algebra,
mostly in the form of what are known as (gasp!) story problems. The student will be exposed
to sciencefrom manydifferent fields, but noprior knowledge of anyof these topics is required.
One can learn something of what each field is about by learning what it is good for, within the
context of the common unifying problem of global warming.
Eachchapterafterthefirstcomeswithexercises,eitherbasedonacomputermodelwitha
webinterfaceapaper-and-pencilexercise,suitabletodoinlabsectionsorashomework.Thefirst
three are paper and pencil, aimed at building a foundation for understanding the computer labs
that follow. The models run on our computers at the University of Chicago, and you can access
them through Web pages. No special setup of the student’s computer is required, and students
can work equally well in a computer lab or at Starbuck’s (actually, it would be interesting to
see if that’s true.).
Thisbookbenefitedbythorough,thoughtfulreviewsbyAndyRidgwell,StefanRahmstorf,
Gavin Schmidt, and a fourth, anonymous reviewer. The Web interface to the models benefited
from input by Jeremy Archer. The visible-infrared radiation model was constructed by Ray
Pierrehumbert and Rodrigo Caballero. The Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM) was
providedbyAtulJain.TheExercisesinChapters11and12makeuseofmodeloutputprovided
by G. Bala and is plotted using Ferret, developed at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory.
Preface to the Second Edition
The text has been revised and updated throughout, reflecting results from the Fourth Intergov-
ernmental Panel on Climate Change Scientific Assessment Report, published in 2007.
vii