Global Energy Interconnection

384 Pages·2015·56.075 MB·English

by  Liu, Zhenya

My heartfelt thanks go to the readers of this book,
for your encouragement and support.
Global Energy
Interconnection
Zhenya Liu
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Foreword
Energy provides an important physical foundation of socioeconomic development. Mankind’s exploi-
tation of energy has evolved over time, from firewood to fossil fuels, such as coal, oil, and natural
gas, and then to clean energy resources derived from hydropower, wind power, and solar power. Each
evolution has seen tremendous progress in productivity and human civilization. As a motive power for
modernization, energy is closely associated with the national economy as well as people’s livelihood
and human well-being. Countries all over the world now share a strategic goal to expedite the develop-
ment of a safe, reliable, economical, efficient, clean, and environment-friendly modern energy supply
system by capitalizing on a new round of energy evolution.
Over the past three centuries since the advent of industrialization, the global energy industry has
witnessed rapid growth, vigorously bolstering the global economy and social development. At the same
time, overdevelopment of conventional fossil energy resulted in a host of problems, such as insuffi-
cient resources, environmental pollution, and climate change, which are threatening human existence
and sustainable development. Global fossil fuel resources are insufficient and their distribution and
consumption imbalanced. As a result, energy development is increasingly controlled by a minority of
countries and regions. Some resource-scarce countries are depending more and more on imported en-
ergy supply and facing highly pressing energy security concerns. Besides, the use of fossil energy has
caused severe pollution and damage to air, water, and soil during the production, transportation, and
utilization processes. Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion have become a significant
factor contributing to global warming, glacial melting, and rising sea levels. In the foreseeable future,
energy demand will continue to grow and the conventional energy development model based on fossil
fuels is difficult to sustain amid the expanding global economy and increasing world population.
Seeking a solution to these energy and environmental concerns with the objective of removing the
bottleneck in socioeconomic development is now a matter of utmost urgency. In a world abundant
with clean energy resources, hydropower, onshore wind energy and solar power amount to 10,000,
1,000,000, and 100,000,000 GW respectively, far more than enough to meet global energy needs. Since
the twenty-first century, the development of an energy structure centered on electricity and character-
ized by clean energy has gathered momentum. Massive development and utilization of clean energy
such as wind and solar power has become a common option among the world’s major nations. Support-
ed by the advancement of technology and the application of new materials, the development of wind
energy, solar power, marine energy, and other clean energy sources has become more efficient, result-
ing in stronger technical economies and market competitiveness. These alternative energy sources will
probably become the world’s dominant form of energy. Most of the clean energy sources can be used
in a highly efficient way only after transformation into electric power, which, as a quality, clean, and
efficient form of secondary energy, can meet the great majority of energy demand and may therefore
become the most important energy for end-users in the future. From the perspective of global energy
development trends and resource endowment, the pursuit of a “two-replacement” strategy that encom-
passes clean energy and electricity as two energy substitutes, is an important direction of development
for global energy sustainability.
Marking a fundamental reform in the conventional models and concepts of energy production and
consumption, the “two-replacement” strategy requires us to develop a global energy view to address
ix
x Foreword
energy concerns with a global, historical, forward-looking, and systematic approach. We are encour-
aged to step up the construction of a global energy interconnection for larger-scale development, al-
location, and more efficient utilization of clean energy. The ultimate objective is to coordinate energy
development in line with progress on the political, economic, social, and environmental fronts, and
secure a safe, clean, efficient, and sustainable energy supply. With UHV grids as its backbone, such a
global energy interconnection transmits primarily clean energy, connects large clean energy bases with
various distributed power generation facilities, and delivers clean energy to different types of end-users.
It is a widespread, highly deployable, safe, reliable, green, and low-carbon global energy distribution
platform. In energy development, the substitution of clean energy for fossil fuels based on a global en-
ergy interconnection is becoming a viable low-carbon and green solution with the focus being shifted
from fossil fuels to clean energy. In energy consumption, the substitution of electricity for coal and oil
and the growing popularity of electric boilers, electric heaters, electric coolers, electric cookers, and
electrified transport should be encouraged to increase the share of electricity in the energy end-use sec-
tor and solve the pollution and GHG emission problems caused by fossil fuels.
At the heart of the “two-replacement” strategy is the global energy interconnection, which works
as an important platform on which to develop clean energy efficiently and ensure a reliable energy
supply to the world. It will bring about comprehensive adjustments to different areas of the energy
sector, including development strategy, development roadmap, structural layout, means of production
and consumption, and energy technology. From a global energy perspective, the author of the book
analyzes the status quo and challenges of global energy development and the inevitability of what he
describes as “two replacements”. By building on a projection of future electricity supply and demand,
the concept of developing a global energy interconnection using UHV AC/UHV DC grid technology
and smart grid technology is put forward and the relevant strategic thinking, overall objective, basic
planning, structuring method and development roadmap are dealt with. A brand new solution to pro-
mote safe, clean, efficient, and sustainable energy development worldwide is offered.
The book consists of eight chapters:
Chapter 1 analyses the current distribution and development of global energy resources, together
with a summary of the major challenges now facing global energy development.
Chapter 2 introduces the development trends of global wind power and solar power generation,
and demonstrates the inevitability of the “two-replacement” strategy and its importance to an energy
revolution.
Chapter 3 deals with the trends in world energy development and suggests a global view of energy
development. It points to the need to explore and address global energy concerns from a global, histori-
cal, differentiated, and open perspective.
Chapter 4 analyzes the main factors that influence electricity supply and demand and predicts total
global energy demand and the energy structure involved. The chapter also describes the focus and pat-
tern of global energy development in the future and presents an outlook on global power demand and
electricity flows.
Chapter 5 explains the correlation between the global energy interconnection and the robust smart
grid. In conceptualizing the development of a global energy interconnection and its framework, the
chapter studies plans for the intercontinental UHV grid, the intracontinental UHV grid, and the ubiqui-
tous national smart grid. It also explores the establishment of a mechanism for supporting cooperation
in global energy interconnection. In addition, a preliminary assessment of the overall benefits of global
energy interconnection has been conducted.
Foreword xi
Chapter 6 expounds on the significance and the important fields of technological innovation in
global energy interconnection. It highlights the newest breakthroughs, direction of development, and
prospects of application in such important technological fields as power sources, grids, energy storage,
and information communication.
Chapter 7 touches on the foundation of global energy interconnection research and application. The
focus is on the progress, locally and internationally, in such fields as UHV grids, smart grids, clean
energy and megagrid networking in terms of technical research, standard formulation, planning devel-
opment, and project construction.
Chapter 8 presents an outlook on the significant impact of the global energy interconnection on the
future world, from the four aspects of energy, economy, society, and civilization.
As a major infrastructure system with both short-term and long-term interests, the global energy
interconnection plays a global and strategic leading role in the world’s energy sustainability. It is in
line with the common interests of all mankind. In a few decades to come, the global energy intercon-
nection will enter a growth period of critical importance and may require proactive involvement of
all governments, international organizations, social groups, and energy developers. Efforts should be
stepped up in theoretical research, communication of ideas, research and development, and interna-
tional cooperation with the ultimate aim of developing a global energy interconnection as a bulwark for
socioeconomic development.
In this book, the author draws on his years of reflections on China’s and the world’s energy develop-
ment strategies to elaborate on the concepts of and thinking behind the global energy interconnection,
integrating in particular China’s successful application of UHV grid technology and with reference to
the research findings of local and foreign academics and organizations. By doing so, the author hopes
to contribute to global energy strategy research and policy making.
Author
January 2015
About the Book
This book discusses the strategic issues regarding sustainable development of the world’s energy re-
sources from a global perspective and offers solutions. It analyzes the current distribution and develop-
ment of the world’s fossil fuels and clean energy resources at the same time as it reveals the critical
challenges the world is facing in relation to energy development. The book also dissects the trends in
the development of clean energy and electricity as fuel substitutes. The author postulates the study
and resolution of the world’s energy problems from a perspective that is global, historical, respectful
of differences, and open-minded. He goes on to describe the concept of building up a global network
of energy interconnections to achieve the sustainable development of energy. Based on his analyses of
the world’s electricity demand and supply, and his examination of the development of major energy
bases including those in the Arctic and equatorial regions, the writer systematically describes a plan
for constructing a global energy interconnection, the roadmap for its implementation, the innovative
technologies involved, and the engineering practices required. This book presents an outlook on the
development of a global energy interconnection that the whole world can tap into.
xiii
CHAPTER
1
GLOBAL ENERGY
DEVELOPMENT: THE REALITY
AND CHALLENGES
CHAPTER OUTLINE
1 Global Energy Development: The Reality ..............................................................................................1
1.1 Background .................................................................................................................1
1.2 Fossil Energy ...............................................................................................................9
1.3 Clean Energy .............................................................................................................19
1.4 Energy Development in the Arctic and Equatorial Regions .............................................36
1.5 Electric Power Development .......................................................................................41
2 Challenges to Global Energy Development .........................................................................................53
2.1 Challenges to Energy Supply .......................................................................................53
2.2 Challenges to the Energy Environment .........................................................................56
2.3 Challenges to Energy Allocation ..................................................................................59
2.4 Challenges to Energy Efficiency ...................................................................................60
Summary ................................................................................................................................................64
1 GLOBAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENT: THE REALITY
Global energy development has gone through a course of evolution from firewood to coal and further
to oil, gas, and electricity. Currently, world energy supply is dominated by fossil fuels as a gigantic
motive force for economic development. Meanwhile, hydro, wind, solar power, and other clean energy
alternatives are being developed and applied at increasingly high speeds to accommodate future en-
ergy demands, thereby playing an increasingly significant part in ensuring security of global energy
supply and promoting clean energy.
1.1 BACKGROUND
Total world energy consumption has maintained a long-standing growing trend with constant adjust-
ments to the energy structure. In the mid-nineteenth century, firewood was the primary source of energy
consumed by humans, compared to coal that accounted for a less than 20% share of total energy con-
sumption. With the progress of the Industrial Revolution, the proportion of coal consumption soared
significantly to more than 70% till the beginning of the twentieth century. In the twentieth century, the
share of coal consumption plummeted along with the growing popularity of oil and natural gas. In the
1960s, oil surpassed coal as the most widely used energy source. The proportion of oil consumption
peaked in 1973 before gradually falling after the two global oil crises from the 1970s to the 1980s. In
the meantime, natural gas consumption rose constantly, while coal consumption rebounded slightly.
Global Energy Interconnection. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-804405-6.00001-4 1
Copyright © 2015 China Electric Power Press Ltd. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
2 CHAPTER 1 GLOBAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
It is most notable that profound changes in the global energy structure in the recent two decades have
brought about a new pattern marked by equal predominance of coal, oil, and natural gas as well as
rapid development of clean energy. See Fig. 1.1 for the changes in the composition of world energy
consumption since 1850.
1.1.1 Energy Resources
Global energy resources include primarily fossil fuels (e.g., coal, oil, and natural gas) and clean energy
(e.g., hydro,1 wind, solar, and marine energy). Despite its massive fossil energy resources, the world is
facing many practical problems, such as serious resource depletion and waste emissions, which are the
legacy of large-scale exploration since the Industrial Revolution a couple of centuries ago. By contrast,
clean energy is abundant, low-carbon, environment-friendly and renewable, with huge potential for
future development.
By 2013, the world’s remaining proven recoverable reserves of coal, oil, and natural gas were es-
timated at 891.5, 238.2 billion tons, and 186 trillion m3, respectively, accounting for 52.0, 27.8, and
20.2%, respectively, of a total of 1.2 trillion tons of standard coal.2 Based on the current average mining
intensity, the global reserves of coal, oil, and natural gas can sustain 113, 53, and 55 years, respectively.
Distribution of these fossil fuels is extremely unbalanced on a global basis. Ninety-five percent of
coal is distributed in Europe, the Eurasian continent, Asia-Pacific, and North America (Fig. 1.2); 80%
of oil is distributed in the Middle East, North, South, and Central America; and Europe, the Eurasian
FIGURE 1.1 Changes in the Composition of World Energy Consumption Since 1850
Source: Ref. [23].
1Broadly speaking, hydropower includes river energy and marine energy. In this publication, hydropower refers to river
energy.
2One ton of raw coal is equivalent to 0.714 tons of standard coal, one ton of crude oil is equivalent to 1.43 tons of standard
coal, and 1000 m3 of natural gas is equivalent to 1.33 tons of standard coal.
1 GLOBAL ENERGY DEVELOPMENT: THE REALITY 3
FIGURE 1.2 Global Distribution of Coal, Oil, and Natural Gas Resources
Note: Regional classification in the diagram is based on British Petroleum (BP) statistical standards. Data in the
subsequent text follow the same regional classification as long as they are sourced from BP.
continent, and the Middle East are home to over 70% of natural gas reserves. See Table 1.1 for the
distribution of coal, oil, and natural gas resources in the world. Coal dominates China’s fossil energy
structure,3 while oil and natural gas resources are comparatively scarce. The remaining proven recover-
able reserves of fossil fuel in China amount to about 89.6 billion tons of standard coal, including coal
(91.2), oil (3.9), and natural gas (4.9%). The reserves-to-production ratio (R/P ratio) of the three fuel
types is 31, 12, and 28 years, respectively.4
The earth is endowed with various forms of clean energy, such as hydro, wind, and solar power.
Based on World Energy Council (WEC) estimates, the theoretical developable potential of clean en-
ergy worldwide surpasses 150,000,000 TWh a year, amounting to 45 trillion tons of standard coal
(coal consumption rate: 300 g/kWh) or 38 times the remaining proven recoverable reserves of fossil
energy on earth. Clean energy resources are distributed very unevenly. Water resources are distributed
primarily in the drainage basins of Asia, South America, North America, and Central Africa. Wind
resources are distributed mainly in the Arctic, Central and Northern Asia, Northern Europe, Central
North America, and East Africa. To a lesser extent, quality wind resources are also found in the near-
shore regions of each continent. Solar energy resources are distributed primarily in North Africa, East
Africa, the Middle East, Oceania, Central and South America, and other regions near the Equator. Be-
sides, other areas of arid climate, like the Gobi and other deserts, are also endowed with quality solar
3Unless otherwise specified herein, the term “China” in this publication does not include Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.
4The R/P ratio refers to the ratio of the remaining proven reserves in any year to production in that year, namely, the number
of years over which the reserves could be recovered at the current production rate.