Geospatial Analysis of Droughts, Rice and Wheat Production, and Agrarian Vulnerability

160 Pages·2017·13.97 MB·English

by  Aaron Michael Shew

University of Arkansas, Fayetteville
ScholarWorks@UARK
Theses and Dissertations
5-2016
Geospatial Analysis of Droughts, Rice and Wheat
Production, and Agrarian Vulnerability: A District-
Level Study of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought
Severity Index in India
Aaron Michael Shew
University of Arkansas, Fayetteville
Follow this and additional works at:http://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd
Part of theAgronomy and Crop Sciences Commons,Climate Commons,Plant Biology
Commons, and theSpatial Science Commons
Recommended Citation
Shew, Aaron Michael, "Geospatial Analysis of Droughts, Rice and Wheat Production, and Agrarian Vulnerability: A District-Level
Study of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index in India" (2016).Theses and Dissertations. 1458.
http://scholarworks.uark.edu/etd/1458
This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by ScholarWorks@UARK. It has been accepted for inclusion in Theses and Dissertations by an
authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UARK. For more information, please [email protected].
Geospatial Analysis of Droughts, Rice and Wheat Production, and Agrarian Vulnerability:
A District-Level Study of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index in India

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment
of the requirements for the degree of
Master of Arts in Geography

By

Aaron Michael Shew
Middle Tennessee State University
Bachelor of Science in International Relations, 2011
Bachelor of Arts in Global Studies, 2011

May 2016
University of Arkansas

This thesis is approved for recommendation to the Graduate Council.

_____________________________________

Dr. Thomas R. Paradise
Thesis Director

_____________________________________ ____________________________________

Dr. Lawton L. Nalley Dr. Fiona M. Davidson
Committee Member Committee Member

_____________________________________ ____________________________________

Dr. Stephen K. Boss Dr. Kenneth L. Kvamme
Committee Member Committee Member
ABSTRACT
Droughts have affected more people than any other natural disaster in the last century,
causing billions in economic damages and millions of deaths. As the Sea Surface Temperatures
(SST) have heated in the Indian Ocean, drought patterns across South Asia have changed; the
Indian monsoon has become more volatile and less predictable. In this study, monthly self-
calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc-PDSI) data for the time period between 1950 and
2009 were interpolated to India’s districts; then the data were analyzed for changes in frequency
and severity. The data were further evaluated using Anselin’s Local Moran’s I Statistic to elicit
the spatial autocorrelation of droughts by decade from 1950 to 2009. This analysis showed the
concentration of droughts in certain regions of India relative to others for each decade. Droughts
in the 2000-2009 time period were particularly concentrated and severe over the Gangetic Plains,
one of the primary regions for agricultural production.
After analyzing drought patterns in India, data for rice and wheat production between
1998 and 2009 were collected for each district. Then, an Ordinary Least Squares regression was
used to analyze the metric tonnes (MT) of production per hectare per district and the total
hectares planted in each district with annual sc-PDSI data and locational fixed effects by state for
both rice and wheat. The MT per hectare measured each districts production efficiency during
drought, while the hectares planted was used to proxy producer decision-making during a
drought year. Droughts, as estimated by sc-PDSI, were significant at the P < 0.01 level for all
four regressions: 1) MT per hectare of rice; 2) hectares planted to rice; 3) MT per hectare of
wheat; and 4) hectares planted to wheat. The results suggest that during drought years, rice
production is reduced by 0.04 MT per hectare (~2%), but wheat production increases by 0.02
MT per hectare (~3%). Conversely, districts planted an average of 2,210 more hectares of rice
during a drought year and 1,133 less hectares of wheat. This may indicate that farmers are taking
on more risk during drought years in the hope that price inflations for rice will be more
profitable.
Furthermore, this study used data from the Indian Census of 2011 to explore the
occurrence of socio-economic and cultural disparities in relation to drought and agricultural
production. Statistics on labor, scheduled castes and tribes, and illiteracy were used as proxies to
identify districts where impoverished communities reside. Correspondingly, among global
change topics, there is growing literature around the concept of “double exposure”, which
suggests that certain communities are vulnerable to a multiplicity of social and environmental
factors. Several steps were taken to identify and map the districts in India that could be doubly
exposed to both droughts and socio-economic or cultural status in agrarian areas. Overall, this
study found changes in drought patterns, their relationship to rice and wheat production, and
provided a platform for future data collection in the context of regional climate change and
agrarian vulnerability.
Key Words: drought, sc-PDSI, India, agriculture, double exposure, climate change
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
My utmost gratitude is due to my thesis committee. Special thanks to—Dr. Kvamme for
providing statistical and geoprocessing guidance; Dr. Boss for constant encouragement and
conversations about sustainable development; Dr. Davidson for data advice; Dr. Nalley for input
on agricultural economics; and Dr. Paradise for our many discussions about this thesis, potential
outcomes and implications. A number of fellow graduate students deserve my thanks: Chris
Angel, Mark Agana, Grant West, Evan Thaler, Michael Eastham, Daniel Gadeke, Chris Pryor,
and all others who have contributed to the numerous and evolving conversations on this topic.
Furthermore, I would not have come this far without my wife Natalie B. Shew. I could not have
done this without her enduring support and encouragement, not to mention a year delay in her
career to join me in India.
This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate
Research Fellowship Program under Grant No. (DGE-1450079).
DEDICATION
This thesis is dedicated to the farmers of South Asia—in the hope that we can better
understand and find solutions to the vast problems latent in drought conditions and
environmental change throughout the sub-continent.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1: Introduction ……………………………………………………………………...1
CHAPTER 2: Study Site & Geographic Context ……………………………………………...7
2.1 Administrative Boundaries …………………………………………………………………8
2.2 Human Geography ………………………………………………………………………...11
2.3 Agricultural Geography: Physical Geography and Agro-Climatic Zones ………………...20
CHAPTER 3: Literature Review ……………………………………………………………...37
3.1 Global Environmental Change …………………………………………………………….38
3.2 Framework for Drought Policy Development and Assessment …………………………...42
3.3 A Brief History of Drought and Famine in India ………………………………………….50
3.4 Defining and Measuring Drought …………………………………………………………53
3.5 Characteristics of Major Food-Grain Production …………………………………………58
CHAPTER 4: Methodology ……………………………………………………………………61
4.1 Data and Software …………………………………………………………………………61
4.2 Geospatial Methods: the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index ………………...62
4.3 Analysis of Rice and Wheat Production …………………………………………………..66
4.4 Identifying Vulnerable Districts …………………………………………………………..69
4.5 Assumptions and Limitations ……………………………………………………………..71
CHAPTER 5: Results and Analysis …………………………………………………………...73
5.1 Droughts: Spatial Patterns in Frequency and Severity ……………………………………73
5.2 Droughts and Agricultural Impacts ………………………………………………………..86
5.3 Identifying Vulnerable Districts …………………………………………………………..91
CHAPTER 6: Discussion ……………………………………………………………………….94
6.1 Agricultural Impacts: What we don’t know……………………………………….............94
6.2 The Future of Agrarian Life in India ……………………………………………………...96
6.3 Drought Policy Recommendations ………………………………………………………..98
CHAPTER 7: Conclusion and Implications …………………………………………………100
CHAPTER 8: Works Referenced ……………………………………………………….........103
APPENDICES …………………………………………………………………………………114
A. Photographs ……………………………………………………………………………….115
B. Python and R Scripts ……………………………………………………………………...129
C. State-level sc-PDSI Bar Plots ……………………………………………………………..134
D. Global Moran’s I Statistic for Spatial Auto-Correlation by Decade ……………………...147
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 2.1 India’s States …………………………………………………………………………..9
Figure 2.2 India’s Districts within States ………………………………………………………...10
Figure 2.3 District: Total Population …………………………………………………………….12
Figure 2.4 Illiteracy by District …………………………………………………………………..14
Figure 2.5 Scheduled Caste by District…………………………………………………………..15
Figure 2.6 Scheduled Tribes by District …………………………………………………………16
Figure 2.7 Main Cultivators by District ………………………………………………………….18
Figure 2.8 Main Agricultural Labor by District ………………………………………………….19
Figure 2.9 Distribution of Indian Soils …………………………………………………………..22
Figure 2.10 Relief and River Map of South Asia ………………………………………………..24
Figure 2.11 Mt. Kangchenjungua from Darjeeling ………………………………………………26
Figure 2.12 Cultivation of Mountain Rice near Darjeeling ……………………………………...26
Figure 2.13 Cultivation of Rice Paddy in Kuttanad, India ………………………………………27
Figure 2.14 Köppen-Geiger Climate Classifications in Asia ……………………………………28
Figure 2.15 Advance of 2012 Monsoon vs. Normal Monsoon…………………………………..30
Figure 2.16 Indian Rice Production by District ………………………………………………….32
Figure 2.17 Indian Wheat Production by District ………………………………………………..33
Figure 2.18 Indian Agro-Diversity by District …………………………………………………..35
Figure 3.1 WHO Global Environmental Change Framework …………………………………...39
Figure 4.1 Example of sc-PDSI India Clipped from the Global Dataset ………………………...62
Figure 4.2 Wheat Scatterplot of Hectares Planted, MT per Hectare, and sc-PDSI ……………...67
Figure 4.3 Rice Scatterplot of Hectares Planted, MT per Hectare, and sc-PDSI ………………..68
Figure 5.1 Bar Plot for All-India Annual sc-PDSI ………………………………………………74
Figure 5.2 Percent of Droughts in Indian States, 1950-2009 …………………………………….78
Figure 5.3 Spatial Clustering of Droughts, 2000-2009 …………………………………………..80
Figure 5.4 Spatial Clustering of Droughts, 1990-1999 …………………………………………..81
Figure 5.5 Spatial Clustering of Droughts, 1980-1989 …………………………………………..82
Figure 5.6 Spatial Clustering of Droughts, 1970-1979 …………………………………………..83
Figure 5.7 Spatial Clustering of Droughts, 1960-1969 …………………………………………..84
Figure 5.8 Spatial Clustering of Droughts, 1950-1959 …………………………………………..85
Figure 5.9 Agrarian Vulnerability across India’s Districts ………………………………………93