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Generative Social Science Princeton Studies in Complexity SimonA.Levin(PrincetonUniversity) andStevenH.Strogatz(CornellUniversity),Editors Lars-ErikCederman,EmergentActorsinWorldPolitics: HowStatesandNationsDevelopandDissolve RobertAxelrod,TheComplexityofCooperation:Agent-BasedModels ofCompetitionandCollaboration PeterS.Albin,BarriersandBoundstoRationality:EssaysonEconomic ComplexityandDynamicsinInteractiveSystems.Editedandwithan introductionbyDuncanK.Foley DuncanJ.Watts,SmallWorlds:TheDynamicsofNetworksbetween OrderandRandomness ScottCamazine,Jean-LouisDeneubourg,NigelR.Franks, JamesSneyd,GuyTheraulaz,EricBonabeau, Self-OrganizationinBiologicalSystems PeterTurchin,HistoricalDynamics:WhyStatesRiseandFall AndreasWagner,RobustnessandEvolvabilityinLivingSystems MarkNewman,Albert-LaszloBarabasi,andDuncanWatts,eds., TheStructureandDynamicsofNetworks J.StephenLansing,PerfectOrder:RecognizingComplexityinBali JoshuaM.Epstein,GenerativeSocialScience:StudiesinAgent-Based ComputationalModeling Generative Social Science STUDIES IN AGENT-BASED COMPUTATIONAL MODELING Joshua M. Epstein PRINCETON UNIVERSITY PRESS PRINCETON AND OXFORD Copyright(cid:1)c 2006byPrincetonUniversityPress PublishedbyPrincetonUniversityPress,41WilliamStreet, Princeton,NewJersey08540 IntheUnitedKingdom:PrincetonUniversityPress,3MarketPlace,Woodstock, OxfordshireOX201SY Requestsforpermissiontoreproducematerialfrom thisworkshouldbesenttoPermissions, PrincetonUniversityPress. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Epstien,JoshuaM.,1951– Generativesocialscience:studiesinagent-basedcomputational modeling/JoshuaM.Epstein p.cm.—(Princetonstudiesincomplexity) Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. ISBN-13:978-0-691-12547-3(cloth:alk.paper) ISBN-10:0-691-12547-3(cloth:alk.paper) 1.Socialsciences—Computersimulation. 2.Socialsciences— Mathematicalmodels. I.Title. II.Series. H61.3.E672007 300.1’13—dc22 2006004238 BritishLibraryCataloging-in-PublicationDataisavailable ThisbookhasbeencomposedinSabon Printedonacid-freepaper.∞ pup.princeton.edu PrintedinChina 13579108642 For Melissa, Matilda, and Joey CONTENTS Introduction xi PreludetoChapter1:TheGenerativistManifesto 1 Chapter1:Agent-BasedComputationalModelsand GenerativeSocialScience 4 JoshuaM.Epstein PreludetoChapter2:ConfessionofaWanderingBark 47 Chapter2:RemarksontheFoundationsofAgent-Based GenerativeSocialScience 50 JoshuaM.Epstein PreludetoChapter3:Equilibrium,Explanation,and Gauss’sTombstone 72 Chapter3:Non-ExplanatoryEquilibria:AnExtremelySimple Gamewith(Mostly)UnattainableFixedPoints 75 JoshuaM.EpsteinandRossA.Hammond AppendixtoChapter3:LargeEffectofaSubtleRuleChange 86 PreludetoChapters4–6:GeneratingCivilizations:The1050 ProjectandtheArtiﬁcialAnasazi Model 88 Chapter4:UnderstandingAnasaziCultureChangethrough Agent-BasedModeling 90 JeffreyS.Dean,GeorgeJ.Gumerman, JoshuaM.Epstein,RobertL.Axtell, AlanC.Swedlund,MilesT.Parker, andStephenMcCarroll Chapter5:PopulationGrowthandCollapseina MultiagentModeloftheKayentaAnasazi inLongHouseValley 117 RobertL.Axtell,JoshuaM.Epstein, JeffreyS.Dean,GeorgeJ.Gumerman, AlanC.Swedlund,JasonHarburger, ShubhaChakravarty,RossHammond,JonParker, andMilesParker viii CONTENTS Chapter6:TheEvolutionofSocialBehaviorinthePrehistoric AmericanSouthwest 130 GeorgeJ.Gumerman,AlanC.Swedlund, JeffreyS.Dean,andJoshuaM.Epstein PreludetoChapter7:GeneratingPatternsintheTimingof Retirement 144 Chapter7:CoordinationinTransientSocialNetworks:An Agent-BasedComputationalModeloftheTiming ofRetirement 146 RobertL.AxtellandJoshuaM.Epstein PreludetoChapter8:GeneratingClasseswithoutConquest 175 Chapter8:TheEmergenceofClassesinaMulti-Agent BargainingModel 177 RobertL.Axtell,JoshuaM.Epstein,and H.PeytonYoung PreludetoChapter9:GeneratingZonesofCooperationin thePrisoner’sDilemmaGame 196 Chapter9:ZonesofCooperationinDemographicPrisoner’s Dilemma 199 JoshuaM.Epstein AppendixtoChapter9:GeneratingNormMapsinthe DemographicCoordinationGame 222 PreludetoChapter10:GeneratingThoughtlessConformity toNorms 225 Chapter10:LearningtobeThoughtless:SocialNormsand IndividualComputation 228 JoshuaM.Epstein PreludetoChapter11:GeneratingPatternsofSpontaneous CivilViolence 245 Chapter11:ModelingCivilViolence:AnAgent-Based ComputationalApproach 247 JoshuaM.Epstein PreludetoChapter12:GeneratingEpidemicDynamics 271 Chapter12:TowardaContainmentStrategyforSmallpox Bioterror:AnIndividual-BasedComputational Approach 277 JoshuaM.Epstein,DerekA.T.Cummings, ShubhaChakravarty,RameshM.Singha, andDonaldS.Burke CONTENTS ix PreludetoChapter13:GeneratingOptimalOrganizations 307 Chapter13:GrowingAdaptiveOrganizations:An Agent-BasedComputationalApproach 309 JoshuaM.Epstein Coda 345 Index 349

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Agent-based computational modeling is changing the face of social science. In Generative Social Science, Joshua Epstein argues that this powerful, novel technique permits the social sciences to meet a fundamentally new standard of explanation, in which one "grows" the phenomenon of interest in an ar

Generative Social Science: Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling PDF

379 Pages·2007·5.3 MB·English

by Joshua M. Epstein

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Agent-based computational modeling is changing the face of social science. In Generative Social Science, Joshua Epstein argues that this powerful, novel technique permits the social sciences to meet a fundamentally new standard of explanation, in which one "grows" the phenomenon of interest in an ar

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Title:	Generative Social Science: Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling
Author:	Joshua M. Epstein
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Publication date:	2007
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Document length:	379 pages
Written in:	English
Digital size:	5.3
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