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PALGRAVE STUDIES IN CLASSICAL LIBERALISM SERIES EDITORS: DAVID F. HARDWICK · LESLIE MARSH Freedom, Indeterminism, and Fallibilism Danny Frederick Palgrave Studies in Classical Liberalism Series Editors David F. Hardwick Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine The University of British Columbia Vancouver, BC, Canada Leslie Marsh Department of Pathology and Laboratory Medicine The University of British Columbia Vancouver, BC, Canada This series offers a forum to writers concerned that the central presupposi- tions of the liberal tradition have been severely corroded, neglected, or misappropriated by overly rationalistic and constructivist approaches. The hardest-won achievement of the liberal tradition has been the wrestling of epistemic independence from overwhelming concentrations of power, monopolies and capricious zealotries. The very precondi- tion of knowledge is the exploitation of the epistemic virtues accorded by society’s situated and distributed manifold of spontaneous orders, the DNA of the modern civil condition. With the confluence of interest in situated and distributed liberalism emanating from the Scottish tradition, Austrian and behavioral econom- ics, non-Cartesian philosophy and moral psychology, the editors are soliciting proposals that speak to this multidisciplinary constituency. Sole or joint authorship submissions are welcome as are edited collections, broadly theoretical or topical in nature. More information about this series at http://www.palgrave.com/gp/series/15722 Danny Frederick Freedom, Indeterminism, and Fallibilism Danny Frederick Independent Scholar Yeovil, UK ISSN 2662-6470 ISSN 2662-6489 (electronic) Palgrave Studies in Classical Liberalism ISBN 978-3-030-48636-5 ISBN 978-3-030-48637-2 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48637-2 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Cover illustration: © Pattadis Walarput/Alamy Stock Photo This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Switzerland AG. The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland Acknowledgements Chapter 2 offers a solution to the problem free will that I set forth in my article, ‘Free Will and Probability,’ in the Canadian Journal of Philosophy 43 (1): 60–77 (2013), though the exposition has been truncated, revised, and embedded within a wider context. I thank the editors and publisher for permission to draw on that material in this book. I thank Mark D. Friedman for helpful comments on the book, and patient probing of my responses, which saved me from at least one significant error and helped me to improve clarity and add some needed detail. I also thank an anonymous reviewer for astute observations that prompted me to emend, or fill some gaps in, my explanations and to make a couple of stylistic adjustments. v Contents 1 Introduction 1 2 Free Will and Indeterminism 7 3 Rationality and Fallibilism 43 4 Persons and Animals 109 5 Freedom and Constraint 145 6 Individual and State 195 7 Conclusion 245 Index 255 vii List of Tables Table 3.1 Gambling and risk; expected utility 75 Table 3.2 Trapped miners, two shafts; expected utilities 80 Table 3.3 Trapped miners, ten locations; options 83 Table 3.4 Trapped miners, ten locations; expected utilities 84 ix 1 Introduction This book is concerned with metaphysics, epistemology, ethics and poli- tics. That is a very large area of study for a relatively short book. The aim is plainly not to provide comprehensive coverage. It is instead to connect those different areas of study by solving related problems in each using the concepts of freedom, indeterminism and fallibilism. To put the point another way, the aim is to obtain an understanding of freedom in the round, in its metaphysical, epistemological, ethical and political aspects. The metaphysics of free will (Chap. 2) depends upon the idea of indeter- minism; epistemology and rationality (Chap. 3) depend upon creativity and criticism, which cannot be understood without the ideas of indeter- minism and fallibility; the distinction between persons and other animals (Chap. 4) depends upon the ideas of critical rationality and moral agency, and thus on the ideas of freedom, indeterminism and fallibility; morality (Chap. 5) demands both freedom and constraint, so it is also tied to the ideas of indeterminism and fallibility; and the purpose of the state (Chap. 6) is to safeguard freedom, as far as our fallibility permits. Each Chap. of the book gives pointers for the further study of its topic. That further study may, given our fallibility, require some revisions to what is said in this book. The goal here is to provide a unified and coherent account of © The Author(s) 2020 1 D. Frederick, Freedom, Indeterminism, and Fallibilism, Palgrave Studies in Classical Liberalism, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-48637-2_1 2 D. Frederick the different facets of freedom at a high level of generality. The account is novel in its emphasis on indeterminism and fallibilism. It is a curious irony that defences of freedom are often deterministic and dogmatic. That irony is not investigated directly in what follows. Chapter 2 is concerned with the metaphysical problem of free will. There is a general, though not universal, consensus in contemporary phi- losophy that indeterministic accounts of free will are incoherent. Some philosophers simply deny that persons have free will, but most seek to show how free will or, rather, some anaemic substitute for it, is compati- ble with a deterministic account of human behaviour. I show how that consensus is mistaken and how the mistake arises from a simple failure to distinguish acts from other events. I criticise and reject the famous infi- nite regress arguments of H. A. Prichard and Gilbert Ryle against acts of will; and I expose some confusions or errors about free will to be found in Roderick Chisholm, Donald Davidson, Laura Ekstrom, John Martin Fischer, Harry Frankfurt, Robert Kane, Hugh McCann, Alfred Mele, Robert Nozick, Helen Steward, Richard Taylor and many others. The topics of Chap. 3 are epistemology and rationality. On the tradi- tional and still current view, rationality is deterministic, either because it compels us, so far as we are rational, to think or act in a particular way, or because it has an authority over us to which we submit, so far as we are rational. As a consequence, on that view, the beliefs and actions of a ratio- nal agent are justified. I reject that approach as inconsistent with our fallibility and I criticise the views of Aristotle, Bill Brewer, John Broome, René Descartes, and Christine Korsgaard. Following the lead of Karl Popper, I explain how rationality is critical and I offer an account of deductive reasoning as a process of guessing, testing and freely deciding. I discuss Lewis Carroll’s puzzle about deduction and criticise Ryle’s solu- tion. I summarise Popper’s epistemology to give an account of theoretical reasoning that contrasts with the mainstream. I offer a new account of practical reasoning as guessing and testing and I excoriate contemporary decision theory, particularly its treatment of risk (indeterminism) and uncertainty (fallibilism). I criticise some recent work of Peter Graham, Niko Kolodny and John MacFarlane, and Helen Steward. In Chap. 4 I discuss the metaphysics and epistemology of personhood. What I say on the metaphysics is broadly in line with traditional

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