Four WMD Crises That Could Transform US Security

164 Pages·2009·1.8 MB·English

Four Crises…
Are We Prepared?
“. . . the United States and its allies have begun to fear the imminent
collapse of the nonproliferation regime . . .”
FOUR WMD CRISES
“. . . a state known to possess a nuclear weapons capability and suspected THAT COULD TRANSFORM
of possessing both chemical and biological weapons programs stands on
U.S. SECURITY
the brink of political collapse . . . ”
“. . . analysis of samples from multiple BioWatch sensors has identifed
a large-scale release of aerosolized anthrax on the National Mall . . .”
Center for the Study of
“. . . witnesses have reported a blinding fash and mushroom cloud in the Weapons of Mass Destruction
seaport area of a major U.S. city . . .”
…and Their Implications
for U.S. Policy
Are We Prepared?
Center for the Study of
Weapons of Mass Destruction
National Defense University
Since its inception in 1994, the Center for the Study
of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD Center) has
been at the forefront of research on the implications of
weapons of mass destruction for U.S. security. Originally
focusing on threats to the military, the WMD Center
now also applies its expertise and body of research to the
challenges of homeland security. The center’s mandate
includes research, education, and outreach. Research
focuses on understanding the security challenges posed
by WMD and on fashioning effective responses thereto.
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has designated
the center as the focal point for WMD education in the
joint professional military education system. Education
programs, including its courses on combating WMD and
consequence management, enhance awareness in the next
generation of military and civilian leaders of the WMD
threat as it relates to defense and homeland security policy,
programs, technology, and operations. As a part of its broad
outreach efforts, the WMD Center hosts annual symposia
on key issues bringing together leaders and experts from
the government and private sectors. Visit the center online
at www.ndu.edu/WMDCenter/.
Are We Prepared?
Are We Prepared?
Four WMD Crises
ThAT CoulD TrAnsForM
u.s. seCuriTy
Center for the study of
Weapons of Mass Destruction
National Defense University
Washington, D.C.
June 2009
Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are
solely those of the contributors and do not necessarily represent the views of the
Defense Department or any other agency of the Federal Government. Cleared for
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Portions of this work may be quoted or reprinted without permission, provided
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
National Defense University. Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass
Destruction.
Are we prepared? : four WMD crises that could transform U.S. security
/ Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Defense
University, Washington, D.C.
p. cm.
1. Weapons of mass destruction--Government policy--United States. 2.
National security--United States. 3. United States--Foreign relations.
4. United States--Politics and government., I. National Defense
University. Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction II.
Title.
U793.N37 2009
363.325’30973--dc22
2009016275
First printing, June 2009
NDU Press publications are sold by the U.S. Government Printing Offce.
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For current publications of the Institute for National Strategic Studies, consult
the National Defense University Web site at: http://www.ndu.edu.
Contents
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .vii
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1
Collapse of the Nonproliferation Regime . . . . . . . . . . .21
Failed WMD-armed State . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .47
Biological Terror Campaign . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .71
Nuclear Detonation in a U.S. City . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .93
Appendix A. WMD Elimination . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .121
Appendix B. WMD Interdiction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .133
v
m Preface n
This report, written by the staff of the National De-
fense University Center for the Study of Weapons of
Mass Destruction in the fall of 2008 and the early winter
of 2009, was conceived initially as a transition paper for
the new administration following the 2008 American
Presidential election.
This report presents four weapons of mass destruction
(WMD)-related scenarios that could plausibly occur and
radically alter American domestic and national security
agendas. Moreover, these scenarios, for which the United
States is underprepared, portray challenges that the Unit-
ed States will not overcome shortly. Developing, insti-
tutionalizing, and supporting those policies, capabilities,
and technologies to successfully overcome these chal-
lenges in all likelihood will take years. Consequently, we
believe that this paper will continue to have relevance
to policymakers, warfghters, responders, and the larger
combating WMD community over the coming decade.
For this reason, the Center for the Study of Weapons of
Mass Destruction has chosen to publish this report for
a wider audience. We believe that the challenges, con-
cepts, and recommended solutions herein will provide
insight to students and practitioners alike.
— John F. Reichart
February 2009
vii